Bitcoin had a bounce back day yesterday. Is Bitcoin positioning itself for a fresh
all-time high close to $70K or more? Or are we possibly looking at the beginning
of the end for the bull run? We're starting to see some conflicting data on this, so I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it's my job to give you the facts, ma'am. And, yes, that was directed towards the one
lady who's watching my show.
Today, we are going to present the case
for a massive Bitcoin run-up and a case for a much darker future for Bitcoin. We're going to let you decide. Let's get it! BitSwap is the hottest new way to trade tokens. Crawling all the top decentralized exchanges, BitSwap gets you the very best price and value for your trades. BitSwap is changing the game. Try it now at bitswapdex.io. Welcome to BitBoy Crypto!
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on Bybit is it isn't only a bull market activity, You can make money on the way up
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crushing the market with our indicator of choice, Market Cipher.
You can get access to both Bybit and Market Cipher
by visiting bitboycrypto.com/deals. In today's video, we're going to be taking a look
at the bear and bull cases for Bitcoin. And at the end of this video,
I'm going to tell you exactly where I think we are. So first, let's dig into what people are saying
about Bitcoin being in a bear market. They're saying that $62K was
the exact top for Bitcoin, which was, by the way, 3X its previous
all-time high in 2017, so still not too shabby.
But what are the reasons people are saying this? Well first and foremost, a very troubling statistic in the amount of Bitcoin
wallets that hold more than 1000 Bitcoin. We've seen the largest drop in these
addresses in the history of Bitcoin. These wallets called whale wallets are often
indicators of big money coming into crypto. Throughout the bear and the bull market, after finding a bottom, these addresses
had continually increased over time, never seeing a drop like this in such
a short amount of time. But is this really a big deal? Well, I dug deep and found some
interesting stats to go along with it. First, the number of whale addresses with over
10k BTC has already been in decline for a while, and I mean that kind of makes sense. There certainly aren't a ton of people opening
new addresses with that much BTC with it hovering around $60K. So basically, this means anyone
who sells down to below 1000 Bitcoin gets lost from the statistic probably forever, which means that it can be a little misleading. But here's where things get very interesting.
The number of Bitcoin wallets holding
over 100 Bitcoin is actually on an uptrend and just recently saw yet another spike. This spike seems to coincide with the decreasing
number of addresses with over 1000 Bitcoin. What can we surmise from this? Well, it seems to me that as the price
of Bitcoin is rising dramatically, whales are diversifying their addresses, and we could be seeing some of the big time
custodian solutions doing this as well. The more addresses you have,
the better in my opinion. God forbid you were to get hacked or phished. At least if one address got hacked, you can be safe in other places. But something else to think about is that
we've never seen a gigantic whale address drop that coincides with the end of a bull market. Whales are smart. They dollar-cost average out for profits over time. So they will be taking profits
all throughout the bull market, not waiting for some warning sign to get out. On the flip side though, some people are saying we do have a gigantic
warning sign that we need to pay attention to.
And it's called the Pi chart. And we aren't talking pecans. I love pecan pie. Also, no one says pecan but me. I love that too. Meet the Pi Cycle Top Indicator. At first glance, this looks like a pretty chart, but it's hiding a dark secret, the top of the bull run. In history, this chart has been deadly accurate
in picking out the top of bull cycles. The shortened version of what
you're looking at on this chart is that when the green line touches
the orange line, the top is in. And the most it's ever been off by is three days. Now, as you can see with the image
zoomed into the last month, these two lines are extremely
close to touching each other, which would basically be a death cross. So, what are we looking at right here? The blue line is, of course, the Bitcoin price. The orange line is the 111-day moving average. And the green line is the 350-day moving average. When these two lines cross, it's a death cross indicating the top of the market. So why call it Pi? Well, when you divide 350 by 111, the number is very close to pi, 3.14.
Specifically, 3.142 is what 350
divided by 111 gives you. Lookintobitcoin.com points out that
when you divide 350 by any number, 111 is the closest number that
will derive the equivalent of pi. But all you really need to know here is
this is quite worrisome, honestly. Here's the thing. While we're extremely close to a cross,
the lines have not actually crossed. We need Bitcoin to move up in the next few days. I can actually see the lines touching and not actually
crossing due to a large Bitcoin move to the upside. But next week, if the price of Bitcoin
were to go down below say $50K or so, we could be in big time trouble for the bull market. And I do have to say this as we get
from the bearish and bullish scenario. There certainly is a scenario that exists
like what we saw in 2013, a distinct two-part bull cycle. This will be a bull run up maybe
to $80K or $100K or so, and a large dip of 50% before a full recovery
and real moon show later this year.
The reason for this could be some type of large
catalyst event like a stock market crash, or something similar. But as of right now, there's nothing really in my opinion
to indicate a gigantic crash like that. It is possible though, so keep that in mind. So for the bullish scenario, we just don't need to look further
than one of our favorite all-time charts, the stock-to-flow model. The stock-to-flow model by PlanB indicates
we're basically right where we should be. If you're newer to this channel, this chart shows relationship between the amount
of Bitcoin available and the flow of that Bitcoin. Early in 2020, the model began showing a $289,000 Bitcoin
when that was a crazy outlandish prediction. It's like somehow the chart knew to bake in
the pandemic and wild money printing. Charts really are amazing sometimes. But right now at this moment,
we are actually ahead of that! Absolutely crazy! This is why many Bitcoin analysts, like myself, have
thrown out predictions in the $300k to $400K range.
And just so everyone is clear here, like the Pi Top Indicator, this chart has never been wrong
in the history of Bitcoin. So this is why I'm led to favor we don't actually
get the cross on the Pi Top Indicator. Now, in addition to the stock-to-flow chart, we have the trusty NUPL indicator. This is the total amount of wallets in Bitcoin
there are a net unrealized profit. For every Bitcoin cycle in history, the NUPL peaked about the 75% range
marked by blue on this chart. The blue stages are called euphoria
and are marked by extreme greed. People will begin to believe that
the price will go up forever, so there's never a good time to sell. Each time this happens,
the market inevitably crashes.
But as much bullish action as we've had
in the past few months for Bitcoin, we've still not peaked into the actual danger zone. So once again, if we were at the top, we would be seeing something different than we've
ever seen before in the history of Bitcoin cycles. Now, one more handy dandy chart that
we use a lot here is the Golden Bull Ratio. This chart basically shows that the bull runs themselves
are predictable from a time perspective. There's nothing in this chart either that would indicate
that we are close to the end of this bull cycle.
In fact, we're about six months away from the end. So here's the final verdict. We have a couple of warning signs for Bitcoin, neither of which are confirmed bad news yet, but we're basically close to having
to pay attention to what it's doing. Bitcoin no has been in a spot many
times throughout the bull run, and each time, it's came out
like a champ swinging, knocking out the competition
which, of course, are the haters, moving to the upside. And while many people put out theories that Bitcoin is going to do something
wildly different than the last cycles, it's literally continued to do the same
old predictable thing. Until the Bitcoin cycles are broken,
there's zero reason to believe they will break.
Now, as always, I'll believe it when I see it. Let me know what you think. Are we close to the end or just getting started? Drop me those comments and a Bitcoin
price prediction down below. Smash the like button if you enjoy
Bitcoin-specific videos. That's all I got. Be blesssed. BitBoy out..