WATCH OUT! BITCOIN CAN VERY WELL GO TO ZERO! Peter Schiff and Julian Hosp (German Subtitles)

peter thanks so much for taking the time uh we're gonna have a lot of fun over the next 30 minutes uh yeah thanks so much that you're doing this for the german audience yeah thanks a lot for having me on julian um first question um do you think you and your son spencer gonna go down as the best marketing team in the financial industry ever i doubt it i mean we're not intentionally trying to market anything although my son you know really has uh had a pretty good drink of the bitcoin kool-aid now so uh he's not listening to reason um but you know i think he's gonna come around you know because you know with age and experience comes more wisdom and i believe he's gonna lose a lot of money in bitcoin and so that will probably be a wake-up call but you know if you're gonna lose a lot of money it's good to do it when you're young you know and you have plenty of time to make it back but you know i feel badly for some of the older people who are gonna you know lose their uh you know life savings in this uh in this mania when uh the music stops and uh you know they're still holding i have so many questions on this maybe first one how do dinners kind of uh happen at the shifts like how how does that do you guys talk about that is or is there like 60 other conversations around the dinner table well first remember my son um is 18 he's a freshman in college now um although he's been going virtually but he's my son for my first marriage and so um you know he spends a lot of time with my ex and so he's here you know not constantly so he was here uh he left a couple weeks ago he's gonna come back i think in a month or two so he'll stay here for you know maybe a month month and a half at a time so most of the time he's not necessarily here to uh to have dinner but yeah you know what is he here certainly the con you know the topic of bitcoin comes up and it comes up when he's not here too you know i'm living in puerto rico i have a lot of friends it's bitcoin island come on it's like yeah crypto island yeah yeah so i'm surrounded look brock pierce is uh you know almost my next-door neighbor he's just a few houses down um and so he just moved into the neighborhood he's been in puerto rico for a while but now he's right up my street but but there's you know there's a lot of crypto people around so the conversations do come up [Laughter] how do they go when you have like these personal talks or is it more like do you guys talk more like macro or do you actually talk about a lot of other things well you know on the macro we generally agree i mean that's the thing a lot of the people who are hardcore crypto guys got that way because they have a similar you know world view as me in fact a lot of the people tell me that the reason they're in bitcoin is because of me because i kind of educated them about you know austrian economics and money and inflation and central banks and i got them to understand the problems of this fiat monetary system and as a result they ended up in bitcoin so uh that wasn't my intention to to lead them down that road but you know that's that's where they ended up uh so yeah you know we agree on a lot of this stuff we just disagree profoundly on bitcoin and not just bitcoin but all of the crypto currencies i don't really think they're cryptocurrencies they're they're they're crypto tokens i mean they're not they're not used as currencies um i don't think they're a medium i mean i don't think they're a store of value because i don't think there's any value there to store but i do think that people are collecting them they're digital tokens and i don't think any of them are ultimately going to withstand the test of time i think it's one gigantic bubble and i think the nfts are maybe just the next iteration of that bubble just taking it to a new degree of insanity but you know i think in general when people are trapped inside a bubble they have no idea that that's where they are because they're not looking at it uh from the proper vantage point uh but after it pops it's a lot easier for the people who are inside to realize with the benefit of hindsight what was going on so let's talk a bit about macro um how do you see the the main driving forces right now how do you see the i mean a lot of it is coming from the us obviously globally but how do you see biden kind of managing this right now how do you see the fed um the stimulus that that was just passed on like how do you see all that well you know politicians you know these they always want to get reelected and they get reelected by perpetuating the illusion that their policies are making people's lives better and a lot of that is measured by government programs how much free stuff the government is providing me what am i going to get from government that i didn't have to earn myself and they're really just trying to kick the can down the road to prevent a real crisis from developing on their watch and you know that's kind of where we are i don't know how much more room there is to kick this can um there's not a lot of road left and the can is getting heavier and heavier as we go you know we keep delaying the day of reckoning by making all the problems that we need to reckon with much bigger you know rather than really being a stimulus what government is doing is sedating the economy but they're getting it high on a drug at the same time so we're kind of oblivious to how bad things are getting because we're so high on the drug of of cheap money so we keep going deeper and deeper into debt in america we keep spending money we we don't have or didn't earn to buy products that we didn't produce and we run these massive trade deficits and massive budget deficits and this whole thing is a gigantic bubble and i think the pin ultimately is going to be the u.s dollar the federal reserve cannot continue to print dollars to buy endless amounts of u.s treasuries and other debt in order to keep interest rates artificially suppressed indefinitely because it's the artificially low interest rates that are the reason that the government could pretend that it's solvent and that it can service all of the debt not only the debt that we already have but all the debt that we're incurring on a daily basis but once the bottom drops out of the dollar then the party's over and i think we have a real currency crisis in the united states a u.s dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis that really upends the entire global fiat monetary system that's really based on the dollar you know you have all these currencies around the world and the primary reserve is the u.s dollar so everybody backs their currency with dollars except the dollars backed by nothing now once upon a time everybody back but their currencies by gold and that was real money because gold you know gold is a real uh commodity that actually has value it's not just a piece of paper and and gold circulated as money before uh paper currencies were invented that maybe made gold as money more efficient to utilize because instead of carrying around your gold you could leave your gold in a vault or with a bank or with a government and you could negotiate in the paper but what gave the paper currency value was the gold that backed it up because the paper itself had no intrinsic value at all and when the u.s took the world off the gold standard and we convinced the world to hold u.s dollars as reserves instead of gold at the time we did that the dollar was not only backed by gold but fully convertible into gold so it seemed like a good deal for our trading partners because they can have the gold but also earn interest on it by buying u.s treasuries uh with with their dollars that were you know redeemable on demand in gold and of course at the time the us was the world's biggest creditor nation we had massive trade surpluses uh you know our standard of living was unequaled anywhere in the world we were by far the wealthiest country with the highest living standards and we had the most gold and so everybody needed dollars to buy all the manufactured goods that we were exporting so it kind of made sense but today with america the world's biggest debtor nation with americans having to import all the things that we don't have the capacity to produce we're really a shadow of our former selves and since the dollar is no longer backed by anything it doesn't make any sense for this system to continue and i think this crisis is going to bring it to an end and then the question is what is going to follow uh the you know the dollar what is there going to be a new reserve currency are we going to anoint the euro or the japanese yen or the chinese r b to replace the dollar i don't think so i think we're just going to go back to what existed before the dollar and it wasn't the british pound because the pound was backed by gold i mean the dollar is the only reserve currency that's also been a fiat currency all the other currencies that were the primary currencies of commerce in the world before the dollar were all backed by gold i mean none of them were just fiat so i think we're going to remonetize gold in a bigger degree i think gold is going to play a a stronger role uh in the monetary system again that is going to be particularly disruptive for america it won't be as disruptive for a lot of other countries because if you're you know in a cur in a normal country uh you you can't print dollars you have to know what's a normal country well a country that doesn't issue the reserve currency right so if you if you can't print dollars right let's say the new zealand dollar right the new zealand dollar is not the reserve currency so if people in new zealand want to earn us dollars they have to export they actually have to work to get those dollars they have to do something of value america doesn't have to do anything we just print them but everybody is on a level playing field when you're on the gold standard because if america wants to earn gold it's going to have to produce something i mean if it doesn't produce the gold it's going to have to produce something that it could trade for gold so the rest of the world isn't going to feel this as much as the u.s because we have been living far beyond our means based on the ability to just print the dollar that everybody will accept in exchange for all the goods they produce so when we have to start producing to consume that's going to be a huge change in america there's going to be a big collapse in our standard of living now a lot of people this is where the bitcoiners and i diverge see they see bitcoin as the solution that aha we have this collapse of the fiat system or the dollar and bitcoin is is is the answer the world's gonna forget about gold because bitcoin is better than gold bitcoin is uh gold 2.0 and that i think is pure fantasy i don't think bitcoin is any better than a fiat currency uh issued by a sovereign nation i think it's it's digital fiat um you know if if if it was back but it can't be fiat i mean it cannot it can bitcoin cannot be fiat because by definition there's no one who says it shall be right right but but every there's no government saying it shall be but basically all of the people who believe in it that's exactly what they're saying they're saying bitcoin has value i'm not i'm not an anti-gold i'm a i'm a gold holder as well but don't you see that this is very similar to gold as well no i don't think what's the inherent value to gold what's the inherent gold i don't think there's any similarities at all because there's nothing that you can do with bitcoin um that you could do with gold in the real world right gold is a metal it's an actual commodity it's the most useful metal in the world bitcoin isn't used for anything i can't i can't i can't take bitcoin and use it instead of gold for any of the applications whether it's in jewelry in industry in aerospace in medicine in dentistry whatever bitcoin cannot be used as a replacement for gold the point i wanted to make about the fiat is each person who believes in bitcoin is themselves saying this has value because i say it has value and a lot of other people will agree yes we will all agree to believe that bitcoin has value and that belief is all just confidence people are confident that other people will continue to believe that this digital string of numbers is going to have value that is what makes it similar to fiat in that all of the value derives from confidence now when you have a fiat currency you have a government that's helping to instill that confidence confidence you have a government that is mandating taxes be paid in that currency which gives it some type of use case because you don't want to go to jail so you need the currency to pay your taxes but you also have a long tradition of use in in fiat currencies as a unit of account as the meaning of exchange prices are in dollars or euros you know or yen contracts bonds rents salaries i mean you have a long history and yes you know they these currencies have been losing value but they they kind of lose value slowly so on a short-term basis you know that your purchasing power can be stored because it's not going to just crash you know you know between the time you get your paycheck and the time you spend it now ultimately that that's going to happen that that happens to all fiat currencies in the long run but right now bitcoin is it's all based on faith and confidence and i don't think that that can survive that you can't just agree that something that has no real value has value just because we believe it has value and then you have a bunch of people who own it who don't want to sell it because they think that it's always going to go up and they'd be a fool if they sell it so they're huddling it uh and then more people come in and want to buy it and you create this you know momentum at you know it feeds on itself and you get the move and the price but ultimately this whole thing is going to collapse like a house of cards eventually people are going to want to buy stuff with their bitcoin and it's not going to be this world of the fantasy where bitcoin just becomes the new media of exchange that's not going to happen if you want to buy something with your bitcoin you have to find somebody who wants to buy your bitcoin so you can get dollars or euros or yen so you can go into the real world and buy a house or buy a car take a vacation and do whatever you want but eventually you know we're going to run out of fools willing to pay higher and higher prices for for basically nothing and the bottom's going to drop out you know everybody's going to rush for the exits there's people like buffett or something who say the same thing about gold as well well buffett doesn't say the same thing about gold i mean i'm pretty familiar uh with buffett and you know buffett believes that businesses are better inflation hedge than gold and over the long run i would agree with him depending on the businesses and you know depending on the price that you pay for him but he's a stock guy and and he understands inflation and he knows that it's money printing and he calls it a tax and he's referred to the us's squanderville and us dollars as squander bucks but what buffett thinks is that why would i just hold gold the commodity that doesn't produce any income when i can own shares of a business that is generating profits and paying dividends i'd rather have an inflation hedge in a real business now during hyperinflation if warren buffett believed the dollar was going to crash yeah he'd buy a lot of gold because what i look at and what buffett looks at is i look at gold as a form of liquidity as money so i agree with buffett as a long-term investor i'm not burying my money in gold most of my money is not in gold most of my money is in businesses just like warren buffett i happen to invest mostly outside the united states because i have a much more bearish outlook on the us economy and the crisis that's coming buffett doesn't necessarily see that i mean we own some stocks in common you know he has some stocks some foreign stocks that he owns uh and i'm in some of those stocks as well but buffett understands inflation and money and if buffett really believed that there was going to be an immediate substantial drop not only in the dollar but in the overall stock market he would he would go to gold there's no question he would go to gold or silver he would never go to bitcoin he understands the profound difference between a real metal that can store value and the reason gold stores value is because gold has a historic relationship to all the other commodities right because when when you're storing your gold not most people aren't going to use the gold in industry they're not going to use the gold to make jewelry but you have jewelers who need gold you have chip manufacturers who need gold right and so gold's a commodity that people are going to need well people need wheat people need corn people need oil people need copper these are all these other commodities well if you've just got fiat currency right and there's lots of inflation the price of all these commodities is going to go up and everything's going to get more expensive now maybe you you need a lot of copper but copper is bulky and harder to store maybe you need a bunch of oil well i i can't have big vats of oil or you know in my backyard but hey i can hold gold gold is small it has a lot of value in a small place and there are historic relationships how much gold do you need to buy a barrel of oil how much gold you need to buy wheat how much gold you need to buy copper so instead of having all those commodities i'll just store my value in this gold and as inflation erodes away the value of paper money and all commodity prices go up well the value of my gold is going up along with the price of copper and oil and now i can use gold to buy those things bitcoin has no use in the real world so there's no relative price that bitcoin is going to have relative to oil or copper or wheat or anything can you see that digital world do you see the valley in the digital world especially like what millennials see i mean a great example is like all the computer games right i mean fortnight fortnite costs zero dollars to play people spend billions of dollars right to acquire status entertainment i see value in internet entertainment yeah virtual reality playing games and all kinds of stuff but not as an investment it's entertainment it's like going to the movies it's like going to a sporting event yes we're going to have a virtual world but you know this idea that people should buy virtual houses and as an investment that's nonsense you can buy a program a vr program of the biggest mansion in the world it's it's cheap and you know there's an unlimited supply of them you know it's not like you know i'm gonna have something unique now you don't have anything unique when you have something that's digital nothing that's digital is unique you can make infinite copies of it everybody can enjoy the same exact experience at the same time look i'm not anti-technology but this is nonsense to claim that you're investing in it you know you you need like food has value digital food no i can't i ca it's not going to nourish me if i if i have a diet of digital food i'm going to starve to death a digital house doesn't provide me with any shelter i can't actually live in there uh you know this uh all this stuff a digital car is really cool but i can't drive it anywhere i can't get anywhere but is it fun to have in a video game sure but it's not going to be an investment it's not going to appreciated value that's nonsense in fact it's going to go down in value as technology makes it cheaper to produce digital assets and they get better right that's the history of everything that's technological we have better and faster ways and more efficient ways of producing things and they go down i mean can you imagine if you bought you know a cell phone and thought it was an investment or a computer i remember my first computer my my apple computer i got it was five thousand dollars i could have bought a nice car for five thousand dollars when i bought my apple two e for five thousand dollars i had a dot matrix printer i had these big floppy disk drives i had a dial-up modem it was really a glorified word processor you know the cheapest telephone iphone is way more sophisticated than that i mean it didn't it didn't go up in value i mean maybe maybe do is a collective collector item like you could get a lot of money for it right now well yeah but if i just had a photograph of it if i if someone made a an nft and took a photograph of my old apple 2e i don't think anybody would be willing to buy it from you right now yeah at least if i kept it in a pristine condition in a box but i doubt it would still be worth the five grand i paid for it i don't think i think it would you know what's the rational explanation for you though that gold and again i am a gold investor right the first six months after the the the drop last year the first six months gold performed like just as m2 did like it really tracked them too then it had been dying off since then bitcoin's been rallying insanely where do you see where is that different kind of buyer's interest coming from yeah remember there are two very different assets and you know for bitcoin i'm putting asset in quotes because i don't even really regard it as an asset but obviously people think it is because you know to me an asset generates income real estate stocks bonds even if they don't pay the dividends but then by your definition gold's never an asset either right well but gold is a commodity right gold is you know because commodities have a use bitcoin doesn't have a use and it doesn't generate income so i you know i just called it token but the reason that these digital tokens have been going way up has nothing to do with what's going on with gold they're completely different right gold is actually reacting to the way major investors around the world view uh the economy view the markets view central banks view inflation i still think that the big money is wrong just the way they were before the 2008 financial crisis i think there's too much confidence in faith in central banks and the belief that they have it under control and that they're going to be able to fight inflation by raising interest rates and you know shrinking balance sheets and so i think the gold market is reflecting a lot of optimism that currently exists about the overall markets and economy and about the ability of the fed to control everything and so gold is discounting higher interest rates in the future a stronger dollar in the future and i think i think that's wrong but that's currently in the market so gold has pulled back uh from its record high that it hit last year above you know 2100 but gold has been in a pretty big secular bull market since it bottomed out in around 2000 2001 at less than 300 dollars an ounce i think it was the bank of england that kind of hit the bottom around 260 when it basically dumped a bunch of gold that it had been holding on to so we're in a long-term bull market i mean it's not you know a meteoric rise but it's a very steady bull market that is eventually going to get into a you know bigger move up as the big players realize that they've got it wrong right and now they have to reposition and get out of dollars and get into inflation hedges bitcoin is in a whole different game i mean bitcoin is part of the bubble right people keep saying bitcoin's not the bubble it's the pin no it's not i mean gold might be the pin that helps prick the bitcoin bubble but bitcoin is part of this people trying to get rich quick it's all this liquidity in the market is fueling manias and speculative bubbles all over the place i think bitcoin is simply the epitome of that uh you know not just the stock that's overpriced i don't think it has any value so a hundred percent of the price is excess and but it's you know people are just gambling in it and i think part of the story is hey look gold's not doing very well and bitcoin is people keep wanting to compare bitcoin to gold even though they have nothing in common you might as well just compare bitcoin to the nasdaq or pick any stock or any other asset it it has more in common with other speculative assets than it does with gold gold's a store value bitcoin has no value so it can't store anything uh you know gold's low risk safe haven bitcoin is high risk gamble you know there but but yes part of the whole fraud of the marketing behind bitcoin is to make it look like gold that's you know that's why i call it fool's gold i mean they try to represent bitcoin as a coin and they make the coin gold but there is no coin it's a string of numbers there's nothing there they talk about mining bitcoin you don't mine it you have computers solving math problems that's not mining and yes can you divide bitcoin sure you could divide it but who cares you're dividing nothing if i have half of nothing that's the same thing as having nothing i mean will it last forever well maybe if the computer networks are there and the miners are you know spending a tremendous amount of money to keep this network going uh but none of this is gonna work i mean there are people that have tried you know alchemists tried to you know come up with new forms of gold this is not new this is just alchemy for the digital age it's digital fool's goal what was the first time that you actually heard about bitcoin what was the dollar price because i have seen you debate with eric i think in two thousand i've never debated oh eric voorhees yeah yeah yeah i have i've yeah so i think that was in 2013 and what was like bitcoin was like what 200 dollars no well that was the low i mean i think when eric and i went out to dinner because he set up my bitcoin wallet which i ultimately he never gave me the password or the phrase i lost i had about a third of a bitcoin in there that had been gifted to me by various people so you know easy come easy go but no it wasn't at the rock bottom but you know uh it was definitely higher um you know it was probably sometimes a thousand but you know i've done look i heard about it when it was very low i can't remember how low if it was below 10 or not it may have been i don't think it was below a dollar i don't think so don't you sometimes think had i not just put one percent of my gold holdings or 10 percent into bitcoin oh look of course it's always what it could have shoulda right there are a lot of things with the benefit of hindsight that i could have bought right when i didn't have the benefit of hindsight i i didn't buy them because i'm a value guy right i mean i you know when i first heard about bitcoin i understand all the flaws i understood them i mean one of the first things i said was well what's to stop somebody from coming up with another digital currency well nothing there's thousands and thousands of them but you know i underestimated uh how many people would you know be conned into this i mean you know i like i was the same thing with the dot-com bubble i could have made a lot of money in dot-com stocks early on if i had got into them i didn't i just thought they were bubble and of course i was right they crashed they 90 of them went away went to zero i mean a few of them survived and you know you could have bought them after the bubble popped the amazons and the you know the stuff like that or the ebays survived but the vast majority of these companies uh went away uh same thing happened you know i was renting houses for a long time during the real estate bubble um yeah i could have made money flipping houses but i didn't i waited for the bust and then i got a good deal but um yeah i mean this was a bubble if there was ever a bubble taylor made for me this was it right because it incorporated you know all of my concerns i mean this you know i could have got on really early into this thing sure i could have made billions of dollars like anybody else who would have got in and huddled the whole way i mean that's another thing i mean if i'd have bought it at you know a dollar you know would i have sold it at ten dollars and thought i was a genius yeah a hundred dollars or i don't know you know what i would have done um i mean the best thing is the guy that loses his bitcoin and couldn't find him and then maybe five years later he finds them enough yeah those who lost who lost their bitcoins and then find them again because they've been the long-term huddlers yeah but look i mean obviously based on what's happened yes you could say yeah i mean i underestimated uh the you know the the intelligence i guess of the rest of the world i didn't know that they'd be foolish enough to actually buy into this thing or smart enough no i guess the people is well i think what happened was i think some big money did get into it you know after that run up to a thousand i think would have pulled back i think some big money came in and and and they did a hell of a job marketing it they really promoted it uh but i you know to me it's just a big ponzi i think a lot of these bitcoin guys are like you know they're like today's hari kristner's you know they're always trying to evangelize and they have to convert actually not disagreeing with you on this though i'm not a because i'm not a bitcoin maximalist at all i i have quite some altcoins so i actually do agree i invest in stocks and everything right so i do agree with the religious aspect that a lot of bitcoin has so you're not wrong there but you know the nature of it right the nature of bitcoin is you need more and more people to buy it to keep the price going up now people keep saying well that's the same thing with gold well no because gold is going to be bought there's real demand for gold and i don't tell people to buy gold to get rich i tell people to buy gold to keep from becoming poor it's a store of value it's not a get rich quick scheme people are buying gold because they think oh i mean people are buying bitcoin because they believe they will get rich owning it that this is their ticket you know to wealth right that they they just have to buy some bitcoin and then sit back and they're gonna get rich and this is all a bunch of nonsense or i keep people talk hearing about how you know bitcoin is taking gold's market share bitcoin's not taking nothing right i don't care what the price of bitcoin is people aren't selling it they're just holding on to it the price could be a million if nobody sells what difference does it make you know it only matters is what can you get out and can you actually buy gold with your bitcoin you know at the end of the day when a lot of people want to sell there's going to be nothing you could buy because the price is going to collapse you got to have new people coming into the market so that the people that got in earlier can get out and of course a lot of the people who are trying to get out want to convince other people not to get out that's why the big money the whales they need to constantly convince everybody else right the minnows all the little guys don't sell no matter what turn out the fud you can't sell because they want to sell they don't want competition and now you have a lot of these high-profile guys like mark cuban right who used to be as bearish on bitcoin as me who said well it has less intrinsic value than a banana now all of a sudden when it's at 50 000 and he's getting paid or he's involved in some project or kevin o'leary all these guys are now bitcoin bulls or you know you get you michael saylor so what about michael he was on my channel as well michael saylor is i mean i don't know what's going on with this guy i mean i i listen to him and this is i mean complete nonsense i mean maybe he's trying to create a diversion maybe there were some problems at microstrategy but come on i mean this guy has borrowed money he has issued debt convertible debt to go out and gamble on bitcoin it's not just that he's converting his balance sheet into bitcoin he's levering up the company and then he's using the borrowed money to buy bitcoin and the whole thing if you hear sailor talk about hey my my my balance sheet is at risk you know the dollar could go down two percent a year i'm losing two percent a year okay well then own gold i mean if you're worried about losing two percent a year how could you buy bitcoin which can go down two percent in a minute it can go down 50 in a week i mean there's so much more volatility and risk in bitcoin you can't buy it as a hedge because you can't hedge something by owning something that's riskier than what you're trying to hedge right you have to go to something that has less volatility and and that would be gold and i don't even know why what sailor could be doing is okay you know how about some swiss francs how about some singapore dollars how about just diversify in fiat right i mean at least get out of the dollar i mean there's other central banks there are other things you could do other than just gamble on lottery tickets but now that he's bought all this bitcoin he has to go out and try to con other ceos into following his lead down this primrose path he's got to get them to go out and buy bitcoin to make the value of the bitcoin he already owns go up and so what about what's going on with elon musk i mean that guy i mean he could just be joking with everybody you know joking that he doesn't own bitcoin i mean that he cannot he cannot lie that he bought bitcoin on with uh with tesla and then he doesn't have it i mean that that's not bad no i'm sure he bought it but i mean what i mean the thing is what does he care i mean tesla in and of itself is a bubble so what difference does it make i mean it's like tesla now tesla is a real business but the price is completely devoid of any relationship to what that business could possibly be worth even in the most optimistic future for that company but i mean to me i mean i mean i think he just could be playing games with everybody i mean it's all just you know a game to him that guy's got so much money on paper i mean what does he care right where you know where he's got it i think he gets a laugh out of this um can i ask i want to ask one f one question before i ask you the last question because i really want to respectful of your time and and i i really appreciate we're going over already um you mentioned other countries what countries are you bullish on if you want to talk about that because that's obviously very interesting to me because i've always i've been a big u.s investor i don't live in the us so i have very little u.s exposure i live in singapore i see china right i see india i see europe do you want to share a bit there yeah i mean look i love singapore as a place to be a friend of mine jim rogers i don't know if you run into him over there he's a fellow austrian good friend of mine yeah so he moved over to singapore uh with his little girls and uh he loves it there and um you know he read the writing on the wall a long time ago he's a big bull on china as am i um and it's southeast asia the emerging markets in southeast asia i think are going to be the the best places to be in terms of growth and then also countries that have a lot of commodities a lot of raw materials and a lot of those materials are going to be exported into the emerging economy see the way i think the world is going to transition in a post-us dollar reserve currency world where i think we're back on sound money which is great for the world to be off the fiat standard and you know back on a gold standard if if we go back to that which seems to me to be inevitable which you know uh but when you have all these other countries that have a lot more economic freedom and to me political freedom is not as overrated right people think oh democracy is great look democracy can be every bit as oppressive and tyrannical you know as as a as a dictator or king right because you're just being exploited by the majority i mean so uh the key is to protect the rights of the minority uh and and democracy is generally not the best way to do that but what i look at is not whether or not you can vote right but whether or not you are free in terms of your property your labor you know the government leaves you alone right and they let you engage with other citizens without as much regulation uh you can make your own choices in life without a government babysitting you that's not good for you no you can't do that you know so where you have more economic freedom and that's generally in uh in asia and uh you have a lot of young hard-working people smart people educated people there isn't a culture of the government's going to take care of me and people aren't looking forward to social security and government pensions and welfare people are working and they've been saving and they've just been saving the wrong asset they've been saving dollars in u.s treasuries but they have big trade surpluses i think when the dollar crashes and their currencies rise you're gonna start to see the birth of the emerging market consumer americans are done consuming we're broke uh but they're gonna start buying what we can no longer afford and i think when the world is no longer squandering its resources uh by loaning them to the united states when it can invest its savings productively in its own economy when its own citizens can consume what they produce and eat the fruits of their labor i think you're going to see economic booms i think you're going to see a realignment of asset prices assets in that part of the world are going to be far more valuable on a relative basis relative to assets in the united states so that's where i have a lot of my own money in companies there businesses how do you invest in those do you invest directly into the public traded companies do you invest in etfs do you invest in country etfs do you how do you invest so i have a i have a pool of portfolio manager a team of portfolio managers that work with me here in um in puerto rico and we we don't just buy etfs um and i don't go in the and make direct investments because i'm not you know i'm not on the ground i want to buy stuff that's publicly traded it's a lot more transparent it's a lot more liquid right for what i'm doing but i want to do my own homework i want my own analysts to look at individual companies i don't just want to buy a basket i want to buy companies that i think are going to do very well in the world the way i think it's going to evolve i don't care about short-term relative performance because that's not going to matter if i'm right on my world view there's a huge payoff to me for owning the types of businesses in the countries and owning the currencies that are going to really uh be on the winning side of it really what amounts to a huge transfer of wealth and unfortunately that the transfer is not going to be the people who have bitcoin i mean their wealth is going to evaporate i mean the people who make money in bitcoin are the people who sell right the people who are buying it aren't making anything they're just helping somebody else to get out um but you know i i do these portfolios and yeah anybody who's listening to this i mean even if you know you don't want to believe me if you still want to hold on to some of your bitcoin do not have most of your money in bitcoin you know my son right made that mistake he had some silver stocks he has getting some serious returns though he he made some good money on those investments but he is all in bitcoin he doesn't have anything else that's always what he's announced right but instead of people like criticizing him hey hey kid you're making a mistake right right so but you know i'm telling you i'm you know people listen to this if you're 40 50 years old 60 years old do not take the advice of an 18 year old who's never had a job i'm telling you and if you guys are right if bitcoin really goes to a million you'll be rich even if you just have 10 in bitcoin but if uh if i'm right and you're wrong ten percent would be an appropriate bitcoin allocation for you is this something we can have the time for me i have no peter schiff says your asset can be bitcoin look to me i'm throwing away one percent of my money i'd rather i'd rather gamble it on something else but look if i thought that maybe there was a slim chance that it could work maybe i'd buy some but if you do think it could work i mean anybody who's in bitcoin has to agree that it may not work it may crash yeah i mean maybe no cryptos will work maybe somebody will come up with a better one i mean it could be outlawed the whole i mean it can be ha who knows what could happen to bitcoin i mean i don't think even if nothing bad happens it's going to implode all by itself but there's all sorts of things that can kill it if it doesn't die of natural causes so make sure that you allocate your risk capital some of that risk money to bitcoin it's not safe it's not a store of value right it is a risky digital token maybe it'll go up you know a lot of people are saying well it's going to be a store of value in the future in the future it's going to be stable maybe maybe but that's the gamble you're gambling that's something that's not a store of value today that's not a hedge against inflation that that will be in the future and they've already given up on bitcoin as a medium of exchange i mean when it first came out hey this is going to be money people are going to use it now they're like well you're not going to use it because it doesn't really work as a meaningful exchange but you know people are going to hold it anyway as a store of value they you know which is nonsense but if you believe that it might happen you're gambling on something that might happen so don't gamble with your all your money what i'm doing i think is a prudent approach if you're worried about inflation you're worried about a loss of value fiat currencies own real businesses own real assets which is what warren buffett is saying buy them in the right countries like singapore i own stocks in singapore and by countries the companies where their customers are not in america where the customers are in china or other places where their currencies are going to go up so if the chinese yuan goes way up which i think it will that means the the wages of chinese workers go up in real terms the value of their savings goes up in real terms so they can they can buy more stuff they become better customers the dollar crashes americans can't buy anything i mean right now the only reason we can buy is because people will lend us the money but when that music stops then the shopping spree stops so there there are prudent things that you could do if you believe that we're going to have lots of inflation and the dollar is going to crash don't put all your money in bitcoin and assuming that that's the answer that you have a hedge you don't right you you need to own real assets and if you want to have liquidity have some real money which is gold i mean gold has a history of being money gold has a history of being a store of value and a medium of exchange gold has done that for thousands of years bitcoin has never done it even though bitcoin has been here for 10 years it's done nothing but act as a speculative token so you can't look at that period of time and draw any conclusions about what bitcoin is going to look like in another 10 years let alone 100 years or a thousand years but you have that reliable history in gold and bitcoin is not going to disrupt that it can't can i ask you uh a personal question for myself so i've done financially fairly well let's remove all the the bitcoin stuff even without bitcoin i've done financially really really well i have a six-month-old son as i told you before the interview um i'm a bit worried that you know i cannot give him the hard-working kind of values or uh yeah the hunger um that i have and i still have um i don't know what have you done that that you think i don't know would you you would be able to pass on for me for my kid um i don't know to give the right values there well i mean i'm sure you're you're raising them the right way i mean whether or not they're going to be as hungry as you i mean that's always the problem like you know i grew up without a lot of money right i'm i mean i wasn't poor right don't get me wrong but my you know my parents weren't rich and my parents were divorced and so yeah i had a uh i was ambitious and you know i you know i was driven um and you know i i see sometimes in my kids you know they're they're they're in a much better financial position than i was in and so we'll see i mean i i know that there are people who have grown up in very wealthy families and have gone on to even create even more wealth than what they inherited and and and you know it's been a good example and then you have you know the rich playboys who just squander the money and just you know whine women and you know entertainment and stuff like that and that you know they they don't have the ambition so i mean a lot of that too you know has to do with the parenting and and and the way the kids are being brought up and i hope that my kids are more grounded and um but i'm trying to educate them i mean that's one of the things i did with spencer you know early on has introduced him to austrian economics and then he just really got into it on his own and you know he's further i mean i'm i'm a libertarian but he's a an arco capitalist so i'm not like he's way beyond me right i mean i don't want to get rid of all government i mean i would if i thought it would work i just don't think anarchy can exist i think it's like a vacuum it always gets filled and it gets filled with something bad so to prevent it from being filled with something bad i want to create something that's not as bad but i want to heavily limit it with a constitution or with laws and i know it's difficult i mean you can you can you can keep the forces of democracy in check for a while but it's hard to do it permanently i mean we've seen history is replete with that i mean we had a great example with the constitution uh but obviously it didn't work i mean it worked for a while that's why america became the wealthiest country in the history of the world uh but it ain't working now uh that's why that wealth has been decimate dissipated and we're headed for a massive a massive crash but you know i'm doing what i can not only to educate my kids about economics i mean i do my podcast just you know all the time and i'm talking about these issues and i'm trying to you know educate people not just looking for you know customers of my asset management business i mean that's great i love it when people listen to my podcasts and then become clients and a lot of my clients are regular listeners to my podcast which is great because i can't you know speak to all the clients personally we have too many but if they listen to my podcast i can speak to them all right and so they kind of know what my thinking is and what's going on but i think the majority of the people who listen to me are not clients i don't even think they have the money they're younger people maybe they will be clients in the future um but i'm trying to educate people because there's so much misinformation out there i mean the status the governments the universities uh you know they have they have the numbers right and they're out there and they're kind you know you know bombarding everybody with all this keynesian nonsense about how the world works and how governments work and how capitalism is bad and businessmen are just greedy out to screw you and you know we need to government uh to protect us and you know and all that nonsense and so i'm putting all that content out there and that's it you know it's there i mean it will you know it will be around uh you know long after i'm not right i mean the internet is here uh you know everything is archived so hopefully i'll have an impact not only on my own children but on uh everybody's children and generations to come about about economics and i think when a lot of the things that i'm predicting now just like with the financial crisis of 08 this is a much bigger crisis that's coming and i obviously have a lot a lot more um you know stuff out there content that i've been putting out i think history is going to vindicate me not only on that but on bitcoin as well uh and all the cryptos and and so don't have to think about people you don't have to be right on everything well you know look you know i'm not look my timing is you know i certainly was was wrong about bitcoin too early as he said i could have made a lot of money on it um but you know most people are going to lose a lot of money on it so at least i'm going to avoid the losses you know because like like it's all it's a it's not even a zero-sum game it's a negative sum game because you have all these trading costs you have taxes but all the money that people made in bitcoin right is going to equal the money that people lose in bitcoin because bitcoin in and of itself doesn't create any value right there's no the the fact that there's you know i don't know how many 19 million how many bitcoins are there now is there 19 million of them close to it yeah yeah right so if you go back to when we only had one bitcoin and now we have 19 million we have 19 million nothings that we used to have one nothing right as far as what the world can actually do with those bitcoins we're no better off there's been no wealth created uh there's been you know there's no factories there's no output there's no commodity no resource that we could use yes people have gotten rich off of bitcoin because wealth has been transferred to them by the people who bought the bitcoin that they sold now the people that have bitcoin fortunes on paper until they sell they've got nothing they've just got you know you know a paper they've got you know the potential to take somebody's wealth if they're if they if they can sell and somebody buys it but we're not better off so at the end of the day the people who got in early and got out they will have been the recipients of the wealth or the people who got late got in later and didn't get out right and and wrote it down but we're not actually any any better off because of all this in fact we're worse off because look at all of the energy that we wasted look at how expensive it was to solve these problems to create these bitcoin what could we have done with those resources if we didn't squander it on nothing we could have used it for something so at the end of the day you know i mean it it's a huge net worst loss for the world this experiment and i think the sooner it ends the better and i think what's ultimately potentially the biggest problem with bitcoin is i see bitcoin's failure to be used by government as proof that the free market doesn't work when bitcoin crashes and people lose money the politicians are going to say oh we told you so or we need more regulation this is what happens when we have too much freedom people do dumb things we need government to protect people from this and there's gonna be lots of lawsuits and more government and you know hopefully it doesn't blow back into the gold industry hopefully it doesn't end up oh people can't buy gold either because they maybe they'll say people you know it's just like bitcoin and they try to put a lot more regulations on gold making it more expensive to buy and sell that you think at the end of the day i think this is going to feed into the government and it's going to achieve the exact opposite of what the bitcoin people are hoping for instead of taking the power away from government they're going to help government usurp even more power do you think the government's going to go around of national socialism not only in the u.s europe and so on where i don't know they just start taxing assets in general and try like unrealized gains and try to get like fiat back that way and try to get value back into fiat that way well look that is certainly the trend in a lot of the western economies government has to get bigger and bigger and bigger to try to make good on the promises that it made to voters in the past that it can't keep in the present but you know national socialism i mean that's pretty much it i mean the whole world to an extent has adopted the policies of of mussolini you know uh you know nazi germany in what sense in what sense well you know so the difference between fascism and socialism right i mean communism because communism and fascism are are both forms of socialism yeah right and so in communism the government just takes over everything outright the government owns the means of production right and there's no private ownership um but government can't run anything efficiently so communism has been a complete disaster right every time it's been tried i mean it's you know it's it's a it's it's an utter failure now what the the fascists do is they they recognize you know if we leave the assets privately owned the owners of those assets will be incentivized to run them a lot better than bureaucrats we're just going to take ownership through taxation and regulation and so that's what the fascists do they want to control a lot of these businesses by regulations and they really want to take ownership through taxation because if you have a government that's that's getting 50 of the profits or 60 of the profits that's just like owning the business except they don't have to do any of the work and in fact most businesses if you look at how much taxes they pay not just the taxes that they pay you know on the business side but all their workers who have to pay their own taxes and payroll taxes in in america the u.s government makes more money from every business than the owners of that business so the us government basically owns the business without having to nationalize it so i mean fascism is really the economic system that most countries have today it's the form of socialism that we've adopted and people think that communism yeah people think communism and fascism are opposites they're not they're very similar that's why they're always the opposites yeah there are two gangs you know trying to battle over the same turf i mean here's here's communism or maybe on the left here's communism fascism's over here i want to be over here this is freedom this is liberty limited government this is a constitutional republic and as you go further in this direction you get to totalitarianism and fascism is here it's not radical right it's not like if you're if you're if you believe in too much freedom somehow you become a fascist fascism isn't about freedom at all it's about empowering government it's about taking away freedom and i want to maximize freedom you know i want you know uh but obviously you know you're not free to harm other people that's where you're you know you're you know the freedom of your fist stops at my face right so you can do so that's what i want i mean and that's where government is supposed to be this to protect our rights to protect our liberty but government is not there to steal for us they're not there to take stuff from other people and give it to us but unfortunately uh that's what we have right now and yeah so your question is taxes keep going up spending keeps going up but all this is going to end in disaster the question is when this ends in collapse we have hyperinflation when these whole welfare states implode what's next where do we go you know are we going to go back to freedom and recognize the mistakes that we've made it's happened societies have done that uh but it's a difficult road and i'm hoping that what i'm doing now is helping to lay a foundation to follow that path by making sure that this in my information is out there and people will come back and say yes peter schiff he got this right he understood this everybody else was talking about how great it is and he was warning about these problems sure he warned about him early because all warning warnings have got to be early but he warned early because he understood the problems early because he understands economics and all these other guys that were just pounding the table for more money printing and you know and said everything is great they didn't get it and and the politicians are on the wrong side of history the central bankers are on the wrong side and you know there's enough information out there hopefully that we could do the right thing and i think if enough people invest the way i'm recommending at least they won't be broke at least they'll have some wealth uh to play a greater role in restructuring and and and being a positive impact in the future you know what are the links and resources that i should link up uh especially from you uh the two or three where you're like these are the jump of points that uh especially maybe also think about the german audience right german speaking audience yeah well i don't have any german content that's fine i i assume so that's why we're doing all the translations yeah so um but i mean most germans speak english you know at least the younger ones but but yeah i mean my my podcast is in english uh that's shift radio or on youtube yep so that's where i put out most of the information i mean you can follow me on twitter and instagram and you know uh facebook what's that what's like i always found that there's either like you either are native to instagram or you're native to twitter uh these are like to me very con like opposite kind of uh platforms from the spectrum which one are you better well no well i just started twitter last year so i only have maybe 50 60 000 or not twitter instagram so yeah i mean i did i always thought it was more just for kids you know sharing images and things but you know i started getting into it to try to reach a younger audience and and try to get into that but i've been doing twitter a lot longer that's why i think i'm like 440 000 twitter followers which is not that much in the scheme of things when you look at you know some of these young kids these influencers and how many people follow them but as far as people that are talking about economics and finance it's it's it's good uh and i expect to get more i have about a similar number almost 450 000 youtube subscribers so a lot of people a lot of people on youtube a lot of people listen to my podcast on youtube and i have a lot of people who listen to it you know on itunes and you know you can go to shift radio but a lot more people listen to my podcast on youtube than would typically be the case of podcasters and i think it's because i started on youtube i started with a youtube channel before i i did the podcast and so i kind of cultivated a a youtube audience but the other way to reach me is through my company so if you're you know in singapore or germany or anywhere you know you go to my website and that's the website for my asset management company based here in puerto rico and i work with clients all around the world to help build them custom portfolios of the types of stocks in the countries that are earning the currencies that i think are going to represent uh you know real opportunities and that are going to be on the receiving end of this transfer a massive transfer of wealth uh and i want to be on the receiving end of that transfer i want to own the assets that are going to be gaining in value the currencies that are going to be gaining purchasing power and a lot of the resources that are going to be in heavy demand in in in the new economy where you have the birth of the emerging market consumer who you know needs so many things you know a lot of americans you know have too much stuff but there's a lot of people you know a lot of americans you know we have two cars three cars you have a lot of people don't even have one car they're on a bicycle and you know so if americans wants to buy a car you know and what are they going to recycle one but if you're in china you're buying your first car where's all the steel going to come from i mean there's a lot of a lot of raw materials that are going to be used to kind of uh reward a lot of the people in that part of the world world for all the hard work and all the savings that they've done i mean there's a big payoff at the end of that and so i i just want to own the businesses and the resources that are going to benefit from that and i'm still you know i want to be hopeful about the long-term health of america i mean i'm still an american i live here i'm very patriotic about the country i don't like what's happened to it i don't like what it's become but i really like what it was and i'd like to return america to its former glory that nothing would make me happier than to see that see that happen and so america could lead the world again in economic freedom and limited government and sound money uh i mean that's all possible but right now we're leading the world in a very very different direction and i think the sooner the world stops following that example the better peter uh last question if uh i don't know if you've made that tweet already but uh or if it's a a tweet you would put up let's say twitter shuts down one tweet still standing what does this tweet kind of look like what would this tweet say yeah what what will be the statement on there i don't know well i don't know so there's no more twitters how would if twitter's gone i don't know how my my tweet yeah so last tweet standing what's the last tweet that uh well i guess my last tweet maybe it'll be i told you so fair enough that's a good one okay great peter thanks so much um yeah maybe we get a second round at some point i would love to talk about you know like the rest of the world not so much on the bitcoin gold debate on many other things but uh yeah that would be for a later round too i really appreciate all the the energy and time and effort that you yeah put in i wonder how much higher bitcoin will be the next time we talk you know because that's that seems the that's the path of releasing 58 000 today yeah so let's see cool yeah so i appreciate it hey all the best have a nice day thanks so much stay safe and uh yeah tell spencer hi cool thanks peter bye

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