The Winklevoss Twins: Bitcoin Is The “Trade of the Decade” (w/ Raoul Pal)

RAOUL PAL: Tyler and Cameron, great to get 
you guys on Real Vision. You have been a   very requested guests for us. Finally stalked you 
on Twitter to get you here. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS:   Thanks for having us. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: 
Thanks for having us. RAOUL PAL: Not at all.   Listen, obviously most people are familiar with 
your backstory, but I want to just start with the   backstory of why Bitcoin? When did you get bitten, 
and how has your thinking evolved from then?   We all have a ground zero where we all 
got the epiphany. Talk us through a bit   about that, starting this whole space? CAMERON 
WINKLEVOSS: Sure. We were actually on vacation   in the summer of 2012 in Ibiza of all places, 
where you find great investments and ideas. We   were recognized by a guy from Brooklyn, from the 
movie, The Social Network. He started talking to   us and said, hey, have you guys ever heard about 
virtual currency or Bitcoin, and we had not. We   started talking and connecting. Then when we got 
back stateside, we started to read a lot about   it and we are like, wow, this is an incredible 

We were used to social networks, and we   realized that this is really like a money network. 
You could, for the first time ever, basically send   value through the internet like an email. 
That was the big aha moment from a technology   perspective. Then when we were looking 
at the characteristics of Bitcoin,   and the fixed supply and understanding, we 
started to build this gold framework early on.   Once we thought about it and concluded this 
is like a store of value, and an emergent one,   we started buying pretty quickly. We purchased 
our first coins in the high single digits.   The market cap was like under 100 million 
at that time, it actually quickly grew   that fall over the next six months, probably in 
part due to our purchasing to some extent, though,   we try not to impact the market.

That is really 
the origin story of our relationship with Bitcoin   and cryptocurrency. It started on a beach in the 
Mediterranean. The last eight years have been   we have been addicted to this space. It has been 
really fun, but I would say that our goal 2.0   thesis or framework really has not changed in 
terms of how we think about the asset for the   past decade. RAOUL PAL: Interesting. My Bitcoin 
moment was 2012 in Spain. I was living there,   and we have just seen our banking system always go 
under. The whole of Europe, it almost collapsed.   Having just gone through 2008, having gone 
through that, and I was writing about it,   and I was at the heart of the whole thing at 
this roundtable with a whole bunch of macro guys.   One of them came along and said, listen, 
the answer you are looking for is Bitcoin.   That started me exactly the same time in the 
whole space. Did you figure out that there   was a Metcalfe's law adoption pattern that could 
evolve here with the system of money? How are you   thinking about it? Gold 2.0, outside the store 
of value, which is pretty well known, how are   you thinking about this network effect? CAMERON 
WINKLEVOSS: I am sorry, I did not mean to cut   you off, Tyler.

I was just going to say that we 
started talking to Bitcoiners pretty quickly, and   the energy we got from a lot of these folks was 
like, these are the smartest people in the room,   especially the people who worked on protocols 
who are deep in that space. When we tried to   kill the idea, we really had trouble figuring how 
this thing does not work long term. Everything is   going digital. It is all going streaming. 
It makes– RAOUL PAL: Hi, I’m Raoul Pal.   Sorry to interrupt your video – I know it’s a 
pain in the ass, but look, I want to tell you   something important because I can tell that 
you really want to learn about what’s going   in financial markets and understand the global 
economy in these complicated times.

That’s what   we do at Real Vision. So this YouTube channel 
is a small fraction of what we actually do.   You should really come over to and 
see the 20 or so videos a week that we produce   of this kind of quality of content, the deep 
analysis and understanding of the world around us.   So, if you click on the link below or go to, it costs you $1.

I don’t think you   can afford to be without it. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: 
the idea, we really had trouble figuring how   this thing does not work long term. Everything 
is going digital. It is all going streaming.   It makes sense that our hardware money is now 
going online and that first version, of course,   is Bitcoin becoming gold. We really felt like this 
is going to happen, and that was pretty exciting   and fun at the time. Tyler, sorry. I did not mean 
to cut you off. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: Also, one big   aha moment was this is the first money that was 
built for the internet. It works like your email.   It was not built by bankers. Credit cards, it 
is like a square peg, round hole. They were   invented by bankers before the internet existed. 
People try to shoehorn them, given the illusion   that it was works on the internet. PayPal is a 
great example, but when you look under the hood,   it really does not work on the internet. 
It is not purpose built for the internet.   Bitcoin was the first internet money in the 

When you realize that, you are like, whoa,   that is a pretty big idea. Then when you realize 
that money is the greatest social network of all,   Bitcoin is maybe the greatest social network of 
all also. As you said, the way you value a social   network and network effects is Metcalfe's law. You 
do not look at it like a cash producing company,   or an equity and try and do some discounted 
cash flow model. That is why a lot of like   Wall Street and finance people go astray, because 
they take their frameworks, they are like, wait,   it is not a company does not have cash flow, it is 
worthless, there is no intrinsic value instead of   looking at, like how you value Facebook, and how 
each additional user provides additional utility   to the other user without even knowing it.

If I 
am the only person in the world who has a phone,   it is not that valuable, because who do I call? 
All of a sudden, if, Raoul, you buy a phone then   I can call you, and by you purchasing a 
phone, you have brought utility to me.   The more people in the world that 
do that, the more valuable it is,   and it does [?], and it is just ends where n being 
the nodes, being the users on the social network,   being the users of Bitcoin, and that is network 
effects. We know how strong network effects are,   because we see the market cap of Google, Facebook, 
and Twitter, big tech, and how hard it is   to unseat these companies.

Google took a run at 
social. It was called Buzz. Fell flat on its face,   because one of the things about network effects 
is that users become the biggest champions of the   network. Nobody wants to upload their pictures 
10 times to 10 different social networks. Once   you pick Facebook or your social network, you 
try and kill consciously and subconsciously   all the other ideas, because you just do not want 
the overhead of doing all your connections again,   building your social network online again. 
You become the greatest ambassadors for that.   It is really hard to unseat even Google, almighty 
Google, which was much bigger than Facebook back   then could not do it.

When you have the first 
money ever built for the internet, you have the   social network effects of money itself, and you 
put Bitcoin next to gold, and you compare the   traits that make gold "gold", and you realize that 
Bitcoin equals or surpasses is superior than gold,   and all those categories that we think make gold 
valuable, then you are like, this is a really   big idea. RAOUL PAL: The other thing that really 
intrigued me about the whole thing is– and it has   dawned on me more and more as I see the tribalism 
in the space, which is a bug, and a feature   is the fact that it is such powerful behavioral 

It is an incentive based network   that is incentivized by money and you could not 
build a better incentive system for a network,   the money itself with an intrinsic value that 
has a store of value. It is extraordinary.   CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Yes, people on Twitter are 
working for retweets, and people on Facebook are   working for likes. With Bitcoin, you are working 
with value. If more people buy into the system,   your value does go up. Yes, the incentives are 
incredibly powerful. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: That   happens in all asset classes. Once you become 
a homeowner, you will never look at real estate   the same way. Once you buy your first car, you 
will never look at a car the same way. It just   disciplines your eye. That is what I tell a lot 
of people, just put a little chips on the table,   get into Bitcoin, get into crypto, it will 
focus you to learn and then you will get it.   There is a transformational shift that happens 
with people. Once they start feeling the pulse,   they get in it. It is very positive. For me, 
that is how I learned. I have to put something   at risk, a little bit of skin in the game.

In this 
case, we put our whole bodies in the game because   we started a cryptocurrency exchange and custodian 
called Gemini, has 330 employees and growing. We   are investors in Bitcoin, Ether, and other coins. 
It all started with buying Bitcoin, but learning   about Bitcoin and not writing it off, and really 
just asking some basic questions that most people   cannot seem to do and they are like, oh, it is 
just a Ponzi scheme, and then they- – RAOUL PAL:   Here is the thing. You started investing in 2012, 
2013 is a bull market event, it then collapses.   That is the first collapse you 
have had to deal with in this.   Then we obviously have the second one.

Where did 
you get to in questioning yourself in your thesis   every time you see it during this 90% down 
cycle, because it is [?] thing to do. TYLER   WINKLEVOSS: Before the 2013 crash, 
though there was the Cyprus bail-in.   The Cyprus government said, we are going to hair 
cut every bank account over $100,000. If you have   a million euros, we are taking 900,000 of it, 
that is what happened. Took a cut off everyone.   That is when Bitcoin really hit the mainstream, 
at least, of businesses like CNBC Squawk Box.   You really could not turn on like Bloomberg or 
some business network without hearing about it.   Because people realize this is the only asset in 
the world where a government could not do that,   or it would be very difficult. When we saw that 
happen, we knew there was going to be a catalyst.   We had built our thesis in 2012. When we saw that 
happen, we are like, the thesis is playing out.   This is exactly how it is supposed to work. 
That was very invigorating and encouraging,   because we are like, yes, the world is starting to 
get this.

Then of course, there has been downturns   and crypto winners, but overall, that was super 
encouraging. I remember where we were at the time.   We were in Miami. I think it was in March of 2013, 
which is a scene that was captured in this book,   Bitcoin Billionaires by Ben Mezrich, which we were 
portrayed in. It was quite an exciting moment,   obviously really sad for the folks of Cyprus, but 
hopeful because Bitcoin actually existed and this   was not that far off of, which you mentioned, 
the crisis of 2008, which we all lived through,   and saw how devastating that was. That happened, 
and when you have those moments, you are like,   okay, we are on to something. This is going 
to be a thing. Just like the reasoning before,   there is like an inevitability about it all, just 
like there is an inevitability about the internet.   I just could not figure out a way how this 
would not work, and really to shut down Bitcoin   is to shut down the internet.

You really have to 
strip the cables. You basically have to become   North Korea. That is such a risky gamble for a 
government, because you have cut yourself off   from the internet. It is not just Bitcoin. It is 
social network is big tech, which are the greatest   economic drivers of at least the US economy right 
now. Our calculus was that governments are going   to have to learn to work with this, because they 
cannot stop this because stopping it is to stop   the internet.

RAOUL PAL: Come forward to the next 
bull market, I went out 2016. Suddenly, there is   a bunch of other cryptocurrencies that are coming 
into the front, and then we are seeing the forks.   I got out into that because I did not understand 
the forks and how this is going to play out. How   were you guys thinking about that at the time, 
because that was a whole different world we will   have to deal with then. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: 2016 
and 2017, what was an interesting bull market,   but a lot of it was driven by Asian retail 
and people who thought that you could raise   capital through token issuance without going 
through the traditional regulatory path.   That pretty much proved to be false. It did show 
the power of the Ethereum network and what could   be done with smart contracts, and that ability 
to program decentralized apps.

It showed what was   possible in a first MVP. It is like the 
of crypto. Of course, it blew up in a big way.   Ethereum peaked at 1200 a coin and is now around 
600, which feels a little more real, though,   it is an undervalued asset. Of course, Bitcoin, 
rode that wave and benefited a lot too from retail   customers understanding really the properties, 
and for the first time, there is a way to access   cryptocurrencies in a mainstream way. When we were 
getting involved in 2012, we had to go to Mt. Gox,   which stands for magic, the online gathering 
exchange. It started out as a magic card exchange,   and then pivoted into Bitcoin, when Bitcoin was 
worth pennies, and probably the greatest business   pivot ever, except for they ended up famously 
imploding a few years later with a lot of value   because they just got ahead of their skis so to 

They, all of a sudden, were on top of 95%   of Bitcoin volume, trading volume and billions 
of dollars of value. It was just two people   in Tokyo and there is no licensing or any 
real infrastructure behind it. Anyway,   we bought a lot of our first Bitcoin on 
Mt. Gox. That was a scary proposition.   Fast forward to 2017, you could go to places 
like Gemini, the exchange we have built,   basically onboard like you would on to a broker 
dealer, any brokerage account or open up an online   bank, and buy Bitcoin so it is accessible for 
a lot more people at that time. It brought in a   lot of new people into the system. Fast forward, 
obviously, the market cooled off, and we are now   back at 20,000, or close to $20,000 Bitcoin. It is 
a much different story with much different facts.   One of the biggest facts has been the growing 
deficit in fiat regimes across the globe,   not just in the US.

The US is actually on a 
relative scale, doing okay, comparatively to other   countries, but our debt to GDP ratio, I believe, 
is 135%. We are closing the year out at 135%,   which is higher than where we are 
to. Back then we had full employment,   and now, we have record unemployment. It is 
a different set of facts, and the deficit has   been growing every year over the past decade, 
even though we have technically been out of   the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. 
That basically ended in 2009 technically.   The recovery was we were out of that cycle 
and on the way up.

Despite a tremendous bull   market, where we have had incredible gains in 
the stock market, not saying the underlying   economy and businesses or wages, but the actual 
stock market, and yet we are spending more than   we make, and we are printing money to basically 
finance some portion of government operations.   Add a pandemic on top of that, and people or 
Wall Street veterans and people who understand   how the value is eroding and the specter of 
inflation are saying, wait a second, this math is   starting not to work.

This is not manageable. How 
am I going to protect my value? This time around,   people are turning towards Bitcoin. You've got 
Paul Tudor Jones. You've got Stan Druckenmiller.   You have Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy putting 
hundreds of millions of his publicly traded   company's Treasury into Bitcoin. They are not 
going into gold. If this were the 1970s, 1980s,   or 1990s, or even 2000s, gold would be the classic 
hedge and the classic bet. This time around,   people are saying, wait a second, there is this 
new thing. It is engineered like gold, but it   is actually better. It is built for the modern 
day. That is, we think, going to be the trade   of the decade. Even today at $20,000 Bitcoin, 
we believe that buying in at 20,000 will be the   best trade you can make over the next 10 years. 
RAOUL PAL: I came out of that macro community,   so all of those guys are friends of mine, we all 
grew up in that whole space.

One by one, I think   Dan Morehead was first, then it was probably– 
I do not know if you know John Burbank, and then   probably Novo, and then one by one, all the macro 
guys got it. For the same reason. This is before   COVID. The sheer amount of alpha you can generate 
in this space and the sheer magnitude of the   opportunity is enormous. Now in my conversations 
with people, it is moving from everybody having   their own PA accounts to everybody starts getting 
their funds, and Paul was the first to go,   and then Stan as well. We are seeing it literally 
everywhere. You guys, having the exchange and you   built out as an institutional platform to start 
with, then you have been more involved in retail,   but I am guessing you are starting to see 
some of this institutional flow as well.   Are you starting to see these conversations 
being had? CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Yes, and we can   say anecdotally, that we are having some really 
interesting conversations from high net worth   Wall Street veterans to sovereign wealth funds 
that are dramatically different today than even   eight months ago, or a year ago.

People were 
getting closer and starting to see the light.   I think a lot of these sophisticated investors 
have been quietly buying Bitcoin. That is what   we are hearing. That is what we are seeing. Then 
of course, some people are being vocal about it.   It is a much different crowd than last 
time. Gemini caters to the entire spectrum,   though at times, we have focused on institutional 
type products and that kind of trust and   audits and things like SOC 1, SOC 2, and all 
those things, because that is really important to   the institutional crowd. That is what they come to 
expect from a platform. One of the things that was   damaged a lot early on in crypto was trust. You 
have these stories that are headline grabbing,   and scare people away, which is really 
unfortunate, because there would be   more people in crypto if the earlier entrepreneurs 
had done a better job of protecting their   customers. That was a big part of our story the 
first couple years is building the most safe,   reliable platform out there that is compliant. 
RAOUL PAL: Here is a question.

Do you think the   narrative of not your keys, not your crypto is 
behind the times? Do you think that is still a   Mt. Gox and earlier they narrative? Do you think 
the space is now actually secure enough to hold   your significant balances on exchanges? CAMERON 
WINKLEVOSS: Not your safe, not your gold,   not your server, not your emails. TYLER 
WINKLEVOSS: Not your servers, not your tweets,   Twitter got hacked. RAOUL PAL: That's right. 
CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Right, or you can get   deplatformed. We think it is a spectrum. I think, 
Tyler, you wanted to say something. Go ahead, jump   in. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: I was going to say like, 
look, there is going to be the tinfoil hat crowd,   and the gold bugs who will never be comfortable 
using or trusting Gemini, but the major exchanges   in the space have not had any incidents for 
years. Ourselves, Gemini, Coinbase, Kraken,   we have been incident free, for years. We actually 
are all holding billions of dollars of value.   The space is not only ready, it has also 
been doing it, and it will continue to do it.   The average person is willing to trust Google 
with their email for the ease of use and the   reliability and the simplicity of GMail.

few people have the energy and the brain damage   and the skill set or want to go through the 
brain damage to run their own email server.   You are going to see the same thing there that 
with email, and crypto, like pirate radio,   there is all these very private secure ends of 
the spectrum that never get mainstream adoption.   That does not mean that the other end is less 
secure, it is just it requires a little bit of   trust in us. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Nobody uses PGP. 
It is just too annoying. We use it but obviously,   the average person, it just really never had– 
TYLER WINKLEVOSS: We use it depending on how   sensitive the information is. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: 
Exactly. It is not a one size fits all. It is what   are you doing, and what are you trying to– if you 
are trying to transport passwords or secret keys,   obviously, you are going to encrypt it.

challenge has always been the experience and   the ease of use. That is why we think that 95% of 
people or the vast majority of people are going to   use simple, easy, reliable platforms like Gemini 
to get into crypto. Maybe they will get in. Look,   I got into AOL, I got into the onto the 
internet with the AOL CDROM. They onboarded   millions of people around the world. I still do 
not have an AOL email address. Some people do,   they never left the AOL garden or experience, and 
that is okay.

TYLER WINKLEVOSS: The two issues   with trusting Gemini let us say are, are 
we going to run away with your Bitcoin?   I think that answers pretty much– it is 
no, but other people think it is no, too.   We are regulated by the New York State Department 
of Financial Services, you know who we are. We are   just not going to run away with your Bitcoin. It 
just does not make any sense for us to do that.   The second question is, okay, are we securing your 
Bitcoin as well as you could secure it yourself?   The answers are probably yes. Very much yes for 
almost 99.9% and I do not think anyone can secure   your Bitcoin better than the way we do it. You 
are either matching Gemini or you are below it,   because we have the best security experts in 
the world, and our cold storage system has been   engineered with hardware security modules. 
It is distributed.

It is multi-sig, it is   geographically distributed, multiple custodians. I 
do not think there is any company or individual in   the world who has engineered a better cold storage 
security system than us. It is one of those things   that like, you want to leave that to the experts, 
and most people are not experts, and they are more   likely to lose their password, get it stolen 
by the person who is coming in to fix the sink.   All those stories you hear, the person, the 
laptop in the garbage dump, and they are   digging it out, and stuff.

It is a very hard 
problem. We spent years and much money and many   experts solving it. The chances are that 
someone else is going to solve it better than us   are very low. Then your only question is, 
can you trust us not to run away with it,   and the answer is, yes. That is why the 
Geminis, and the Coinbases, that is why 99%   of the world will rather use those than 
try to do it themselves, because it is   more likely that you will screw it up. Look, these 
are the same people who say, oh, not your keys,   not your Bitcoin. Most people get into 
a cab, and do not even put a belt on.   It is just like, what? Physics does not work in 
a cab? I have heard this argument like, oh, only   in the front seat, I wear a belt.

Wait, okay, so 
physics stops working in the backseat. RAOUL PAL:   People misprice risk all the time, 
humans are [?]. TYLER WINKLEVOSS:   This is the best one. During COVID, you see people 
on city bikes with a COVID mask and no helmet.   It is like, nothing to protect my brain up here 
but I just want to protect my lungs from COVID   when– and they are young people, and they are 
like low risk people.

They are totally screwing   it up. That is a long-winded way of saying that 
overall, people will choose to use companies   like Gemini to custody. RAOUL PAL: Where are you 
going with Gemini? What is your grand vision here?   Where do you want to go with it? TYLER 
WINKLEVOSS: We are global. We are in many,   many countries. There is a list on our website, 
but US, Canada, UK, Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong,   Australia, so most of the world, and I am 
leaving out some countries, but it is there.   Right now, it is buy, sell, store crypto, but 
we want to increase those money verbs to earn   to spend, earn, all these other behaviors that 
you do.

We started off and we very much were   a fiat on ramp into the crypto universe. If you 
have cash in your bank, and your value is there,   you want to put your value in cryptocurrency get 
onto the blockchain, you open up a Gemini account,   because you can link your fiat bank and we are a 
fiat on-ramp into that world. Right now, the world   still maturing. The crypto universe where people 
still do most of their banking, most of their   finance activity outside of crypto, but we want to 
keep people, we want to get people over the bridge   and stay there so they can actually never leave 
the crypto universe. The mainland is legacy   finance, crypto is an island but we want to see 
that inversion where crypto becomes the mainland   and legacy finance is just this dinosaur that 
is like slowly fading away. RAOUL PAL: It is   layering on financial services layer to the 
existing store of money layer is the next   phase.

You said transfer of money in and out, 
that is the first thing. Storing is the next,   and then there is all the other things we do with 
money such as– TYLER WINKLEVOSS: Yes. Like okay,   you can buy, sell Bitcoin, you can store your 
Bitcoin, your ether, but generally speaking,   your equities activities happen outside of crypto. 
Also, could you trade a share of Apple? Basically,   Gemini is a one-stop shop in all assets. Bitcoin 
is gold on the blockchain, ether is like digital   oil, but every asset in the future is going to be 
on a blockchain. Equities we are already seeing   this with non-fungible tokens, digital art, 
and collectibles.

We have a platform for that   called Nifty Gateway. All these things that are 
assets like the comic books you grew up reading,   the baseball cards you collected, those are 
now being put on a blockchain because everybody   realizes, or people are starting to realize the 
physical nature of it is actually not a feature,   it is a bug. It is not about the physical nature 
of it. It is the scarcity. It is the uniqueness.   All of these assets are going to move on to 
blockchains, and Gemini is your one-stop platform   to do whatever it is you want to do, whether it is 
you want to issue, sell, turn. RAOUL PAL: How far   away are we from the tokenization of everything 
from IP rights to social media styles through to   physical property? How far are we from it? We know 
it is coming, but it feels like it is a heavy slog   to make much progress.

is a good question. Yes, it does feel like a bit   of a slog, and that there is going to be other 
things like DeFi which is decentralized finance,   which is all these financial services being 
rebuilt permissionless on the Ethereum blockchain,   so you can go post-collateral and borrow or 
lend or trade in these decentralized exchanges.   That has been exploding over the past six or 
so months. RAOUL PAL: And imploding as well.   It is doing the classic early phase– CAMERON 
WINKLEVOSS: Exactly. It fits and starts a little   bit, and some projects are taking off and others 
not doing so well. It is this Cambrian explosion   of new ideas and financial services reimagined in 
a permissionless fashion. That is really exciting   to see, that unbundling and attacking a lot of 
these centralized things that exists in the legacy   financial world. In terms of artists' rights, for 
example, I am not really sure. There is probably   good headway made in the next decade, I am not 
sure exactly where it comes from. If you have   seen that movie, Searching for Sugarman, the 
way they found him is they followed the money.   They are like, where are all these royalty 
checks going? They tracked it to some PO Box   in Detroit somewhere, and they were able to locate 
him that way.

When you look at people, if you have   ever done like a commercial or something, and 
you get a royalty, and sometimes the royalty is   like less than the postage of the stamp, they 
send you and you are like, pull out a check,   and you are like, it is 20 cents. It 
costs more to put this together. That is   so bad. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: We actually got a 
couple of those from our cameo on Silicon Valley,   we get something like $1, $1.23.

you will find all the middlemen have taken all   the middle. You could have had $3, but we 
are staking all of that. TYLER WINKLEVOSS:   Totally. No, maybe it was a million? I do not 
know. RAOUL PAL: Exactly. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Yes,   we have no way to verify that. That is really 
how money and checks and all that stuff has been   working for a long, long time.

That obviously 
all goes on to a blockchain of some sort and   gets digitized. I am not sure there is a ton 
of motivation from within the current system.   That is the irony. Who solved, music was broken, 
who solved it? Silicon Valley. Movies were broken,   who solved it? Silicon Valley, Netflix. It usually 
comes from the outside, because the insiders are   just not incentivized to change anything. 
You see this with the most recent election.   People are worried about, oh machines, fraud, all 
this stuff.

Who is changing it? Nobody is actually   incentivized to change it. Once you are in power, 
you just accept the status quo, because it is   generally better for you than the challenger. We 
could have changed our voting systems for decades.   Of course, we have not, and there probably 
will not be much movement on that front for   a long time. Regardless of whether or not there is 
fraud, the system, the fact that it is a mail-in a   ballot system seems a little bit broken. TYLER 
WINKLEVOSS: Mail-in 2020. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS:   Yes, and we have not really solved the 
identity problem, a mail-in ballot.   You draw your signature.

Some human is looking 
at your signature versus what is on file,   how does that work. RAOUL PAL: That is 
extraordinary. Because India solved this   with its Aadhaar system, which is fingerprint or 
retina scans. Look, that is not distributed, but   digital KYC and digital identities, and 
that has to come as well. Because even in   this world of social media, it is desperately 
needed now that people have some verifiable   entity, who they are. Because trust is important 
for them. We talked about trust before,   but trust is breaking out all over the place 
because of these new systems.

CAMERON WINKLEVOSS:   Yes, and I think that there will naturally be 
probably some resistance in the US to things like   retina and all that stuff. India did it in one 
fell swoop overnight, like literally you have no   choice, gun to your head, you better sign up 
or you are not going to get paid. In the US,   there is a lot of people who would be against 
that. Looking at things with the vaccine rollout   or the discussion around that, many people like 
do not trust it and will not do it. That is one of   the challenges to distribution is actually getting 
people to take it. Not trying to go down into that   area but it is an example of how one of the 
challenges– we will keep it out of there for now.   TYLER WINKLEVOSS: Going back to the conversion 
conversation, we deal with this in Nifty Gateway,   too.

We are not trying to convert the 
boomer art collectors, like the 75-year-olds   who collect paintings and who buy paintings from 
Chelsea galleries. This is our collection for   the next generation. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Tyler, 
sorry. Can you explain what Nifty Gateway is?   For people who do not understand. TYLER 
WINKLEVOSS: Sure. It is a platform to buy,   sell and store non-fungible tokens. The acronym is 
NFT, or you can say Nifties for slang. Basically,   they are one of a kind assets that represent 
art, digital art, or collectibles to get picture.   Then artists can go on Nifty Gateway, and create 
one piece of work, maybe for 10 additions,   or like two of two.

It is all enforced by– 
the scarcity is enforced by the blockchain.   If you think about like Instagram, you go 
on Instagram, you click liking a picture.   What if each picture on an artist's profile 
was an asset, and there could be five of them,   or 10 of them? Instead of clicking and liking, you 
could actually purchase, and it was a supply and   demand market. You own one of five of these in 
the world. There will never be more than five.   You could authenticate in the blockchain it was 
created by this artist. It is like putting money,   economic supply, and demand on top of Instagram. 
RAOUL PAL: We have seen it in the gaming world,   with skins. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: Totally. RAOUL PAL: 
Digital assets have valued. I did not grow up   in an era where it did. Most of us did not, but 
the Gen Z only know that world. We think buying   a shirt from a fancy place or expensive watch 
is our value statements and our status symbol.   They do not mind whether it is digital or 
real. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: No, they buy a dance   in Fortnite, they go to raves inside Fortnite. 
The only problem with buying and collecting   those digital assets is you are trusting the 

If Epic Games goes out of business,   or prints more of the battle axes, and 
all of a sudden, yours is not that scarce.   Whereas with Nifty Gateway, we put that all onto 
the blockchain. The scarcity, the additions of   what the artist is doing is enforced by 
the math cryptography of the blockchain,   the same stuff that enforces that there is only 
going to be 21 million Bitcoin. You could actually   buy a Nifty and people have bought them, NFTs are 
worth $65,000, or even more, because the scarcity   being enforced, the authenticity, all the forgery 
problems in the traditional art world are gone.   Our audience, it is a range, but it is like a 
different type of art media.

It is a different   type of collector, and we are not relying on 
converting the existing art world, we are building   a new one. RAOUL PAL: Do you think 
that is going to just remain as art   or do you think you are going to end up with all 
sorts of NFTs on this? TYLER WINKLEVOSS: Well,   you can do different things. We have DJs 
creating art that is 3D moving picture   with a soundtrack. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Like 
an album cover. Instead of– TYLER WINKLEVOSS:   And you are only one of the few people in the 
world that own this music video. You can box   digital assets. Digital art has been around 
forever, but how do you package it? How do you   buy it? How does an artist create like a digital 
art and sell it or make it scarce? RAOUL PAL:   What does somebody like Getty not put all the 
Getty Images on a blockchain? Because they   have a problem with IP rights, and it solves huge 
amounts of their problems.

They bought all of the   digital rights to everything and then distribute 
it. I can say it beyond just an artist but just   anything with digital rights is a huge problem 
in the current internet world, and blockchain   solves a lot of them. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: They 
totally should. What I found is that that is   very much like a generational thing. I never 
meet someone who is under 25 who is a skeptic of   Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. They grew up 
digitally native. They grew up more online than   they did offline. More of their life, the things 
that are important to them, their social tribe   is on social media. It is about getting likes, 
it is online. They rarely go offline. You meet   someone over like 55 and chances are, 
they are a skeptic of Bitcoin, because   the mind loses some plasticity, you build these 
skills, you become a banker, a partner at a bank,   and all of a sudden, this thing is going to 
disrupt it, and this mountain that you climbed,   you've got to come down and climb the wall.

PAL: Also, you have an inherent need for the   status quo to continue the more you are invested 
in it. You have an investment that is 20 years   old. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: You should up your game. 
You still had to make money, you are on top of   the hill, like, this is a great game, let us keep 
it going. You are Gen Z, you have nothing to lose.   You did not spend 25 years building an asset, 
building a skill set, building a core competency,   that now you have to disrupt to stay relevant. 
It is a blank slate. When someone says Bitcoin,   you say, cool, what is that? That is new. If 
you are entrenched, it is innovator's dilemma.   It is why these companies end up stop innovating. 
They just protect the franchise, and they die a   slower or very fast death. It is the same thing 
with cryptocurrencies. We do not have to convert   the boomers, although, I say a lot of the boomers 
get it, especially the really sophisticated   ones who understand what is happening at the 
Fed, who pay attention to the money printing,   to the deficit spending.

The US has only run a 
budget surplus four times in the last 50 years.   Ross Perot, the independent candidate in 1992, he 
ran on balancing the budget. He was slamming the   panic button and be like, this is crazy, that was 
1992. Before all the printing that happened after,   it was before the printing in the crisis, 
the TARP, and it was before the printing in   the last decade, and it was before this. That 
was like 30 years ago, he was getting traction,   because he was worried about what was happening to 
the US dollar. It is getting to a point now where,   how do you get off this track? Both parties, 
there is no hard money party anymore.   It is not like the Republicans, the Democrats 
are not the same thing when it comes to printing,   running debts, and financing government 
operations. The question is, how does this end?   At some point, the math becomes so impossible. 
I do not know who said compound interest is the   eighth wonder of the world.

RAOUL PAL: I think 
it was Albert Einstein. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: Albert   Einstein or Warren Buffett, maybe it 
was Gandhi, I do not know. Basically,   you want things compounding for you, your wealth 
growing overnight, and compounding, but you do not   want your debt obligations compounding against 
you. That is obviously what is happening and   the ability for us to actually service our debt 
is just going to be impossible, not believable.   The math just will not work out, and these fiat 
currency regimes will collapse.

I hope they do   not, but who is going to get us off this path 
that we have been on? RAOUL PAL: That leads me   to the next bit, Central Bank Digital Currencies. 
They are clearly coming. They are all, the ECB,   the BOJ, the IMF, the BIS, the Bank of 
England. Everybody is saying it is coming.   That is going to be another gamechanger. It 
is also a gamechanger, because even today,   you just saw the G7 are like, wow, you can 
tell that they really do not like stablecoins.   What is your whole thing about how this is 
going to emerge? Because the stablecoins,   cryptocurrencies, and central banks all 
in the same space, can they all coexist?   CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Well, the Central Bank 
is showing their own currency digitally.   That is just like a different factor of 
fiat, so I do not think that solves the   underlying– RAOUL PAL: It is all fiats' problem, 
but it will change.

If we talk about the actual   change, here is another thing that can change 
the system for a while longer, and so fiat does   not– CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: It is interesting that 
we would be moving off like physical printing   presses to a blockchain or node like system. 
I think that does benefit the entire space,   but it still takes me back to the fiat problem. 
I think the reason why central banks do not   like stablecoins in the current iteration is 
because they are issued by private companies.   One of the companies that wants to issue one 
is one of the largest companies in the world,   Facebook. RAOUL PAL: It is the largest network 
in the world. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Exactly. It is   a massive project with massive scale, or potential 
scale. Money has been the domain of governments   for a long, long time. They do not want to cede 
that control. That is where a lot of that Fudd   around stablecoins is coming from. Tyler, 
you have done a little more thinking on this   area.

TLYER WINKLEVOSS: Well, it is bankers 
have been the protectors of the currency.   They are the distribution pipes when the 
government wants to get it out. All of a sudden,   Facebook or private tech companies will become 
the issuers of these stablecoins, and they will   really be the protectors of the currency. I 
think it is more coming from bankers who do   not want to lose their post position on when the 
Fed prints money, or whatever, it comes to us,   and you got to come to us. Bankers are like the 
miners of fiat currency. They perform a service,   they get paid. RAOUL PAL: The Central Bank Digital 
Currencies might clear out the banks anyway. TYLER   WINKLEVOSS: Totally.

I am not sure, I have 
not paid too close attention whether the banks   like that, but yes, why would not every US citizen 
have a bank account with the Fed? RAOUL PAL: Why   not? Yes. As long as you've got a FinTech layer on 
top, then we can get all the services like Gemini,   I can use all my stuff, I can mingle 
it around on-ramp and off-ramp.   Why do we need a bank? CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: 
That is a great question. TYLER WINKLEVOSS:   Was not there a huge issue of even getting people 
in the US like their check, their stimulus checks?   Email. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: It is actually 
hard to do helicopter money. TYLER WINKLEVOSS:   I cannot believe we are talking about snail 
mail to get people money, or to cast votes in   2020. It is really embarrassing. We have even [?] 
invented, we have cryptography, we have all the   building blocks to get people their money, help 
them to cast their votes by sending an email,   and we just cannot get our act together to do it. 
RAOUL PAL: We cannot even do helicopter money.   My thought process is this entire thing is going 
to change and integrate fiscal and monetary policy   together.

Now, that still accelerates 
the endgame, which is you are giving an   unlimited check, but what you've got is actually 
pretty powerful. Because you can create stimulus,   you can create behavioral incentives with Central 
Bank money now, because I can give you a negative   interest rate because you are a saver, while I 
can give somebody else a positive interest rate,   because they are students. I can also give 
you a stimulus because you own a restaurant,   but you have to spend it in these places.

could all be programmed now. I was listening   to Benoît Cœuré from the ECB and now the BIS, 
they are clearly going to go down this path   where you've got programmable money. It is 
fascinating because macro policy changes forever,   fiscal and monetary all merges. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: 
That sounds great. I read this article a long time   ago, Self-driving Money, and it said a lot of this 

We could actually know the supply of M1, M2   down to a penny. We know everything. The Fed can 
pull the levers, like you say dual interest rates   help certain sectors, certain people. It would 
be just so much more scientific, and advanced   and data-driven. RAOUL PAL: Yes, you can use 
big data, you can use behavioral sciences,   and you can create all sorts of incentive based 
systems because then you've got a purely incentive   basis the way you can [?]. This is governments 
we are talking about, and they are going to fuck   it up for everybody by becoming China because 
they cannot help it, because they want power.   TYLER WINKLEVOSS: It probably would bring some 
transparency to– What is that? RAOUL PAL: Like   TARP where there is wall of money just goes to all 
of these people, you cannot do that with a Central   Bank Digital Currency because it is all trackable. 
TYLER WINKLEVOSS: How do these conversations go   behind the curtain? It is like the Wizard of Oz. 
The Fed, it is a mystery, and there is no clarity   on how the decision is made.

It is just like 
wave the magic wand, Powell says this, or that.   It is insanity. You would never invent money, and 
have it look the way it works in the US. Let us   put 12 people behind a curtain and have them pull 
everything and I got it. We will distribute it to   this elite class of bankers, and that will go 
well. No wonder the bankers always end up on their   feet when there is an issue or whatever. More 
transparency, more scientific data analysis behind   this, that is all great, but I love the fact that 
Bitcoin is not coming from a government. I love   the competition aspect of it. Then people can just 
get a Chinese menu of choices and be like, I trust   Gemini stable coin, because I know the twins or I 
saw them on this podcast, or I am going to go buy   DAI or use DAI because it is algorithmic. Bitcoin 
is non-government, it is just digital gold, and   the US are pretty privileged that we have a pretty 
good fiat currency, but Zimbabwe, Venezuela,   Argentina, it is so sad.

The wealth that gets just 
destroyed with inflation and defaulted currencies.   They take ferries over to Uruguay to get 
dollars, you buy motorbikes, you buy bricks,   you do all these crazy things, because you 
cannot trust the currency, it is all these   capital controls. These people need options. The 
governments need to stop having monopolies because   as the famous folk goes, power corrupts, absolute 
power corrupts absolutely. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS:   That is a good– just reminds me on the point 
you are asking about what is next for Gemini.   One of the areas, one of the things is we are in 
most of the developed world but at some point, I   would really love to get down into the developing 
world, where crypto is really needed in a big way,   whether it is hyperinflation, or there is just 
not an infrastructure or a system there. There is   a billion plus people unbanked in the world 
and many unbanked people, and this technology   can solve for that problem better than any that 
we have seen to date.

That is the longer game,   is trying to get into those areas that 
really need it. Because I do not think   Bitcoin, people are not clamoring– now, 
people see the light in the US, but it is   not the necessarily the most pressing priority 
for some individuals, as it is, in say, Venezuela   or other hyperinflation environments. RAOUL 
PAL: I was introduced to a family office in–   where are they now? They are probably Mexico 
City, they are a Latin-American family. These   guys were mining Bitcoin in Venezuela for zero 
cost up until the government shut them down.   These guys were very involved in the space, 
and basically setting up a multifamily office   for these big Latin-American families, which 
is about 10 trillion of wealth down there.   All of these guys have to have dollars and they 
cannot get them half the time, because they   are getting cut off from here, or you either got 
currency restrictions, or you've got an imploding   currency, it is very hard to get your money out. 
These guys are building a multifamily office,   because everybody is understanding Bitcoin very 
quickly, and how useful it is.

These guys used to   be dollars and gold. They are thinking, wow, okay, 
Bitcoin really solves a lot problems, because   they do not have this dollar shortage issue of 
trying to buy dollars. You just buy bitcoin,   and you do not have the same issue. I think all 
of these guys, whether it is in– if you look   at the exchange volumes, it is Venezuela, it is 
Colombia, even South Africans are huge users of   this because they've got the inherent problems 
of currency controls and weakening currencies.   TYLER WINKLEVOSS: Yes, even look at the central 
banks are stocking up on gold. They say everything   is fine. QE infinity, no big deal. This is 
normal. Do not really listen to what they say,   look at what they do and how they act. They are 
stocking up on gold because they understand what   they are doing.

They understand the problem they 
are creating with the money printing. One day,   not too far from now, that is going to 
be central banks stocking up on Bitcoin,   just like Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy. 
Just like Jack Dorsey and Square, every company,   multinational or whatever, public-traded, every 
large company is going to need their Treasury   invested in Bitcoin. It will be irresponsible not 
to. Central banks are going to do the same thing.   Sovereign wealth funds. When you look at the fact 
that only two companies that we know are publicly   traded and we would know because they 
have to disclose this if there was more,   out of all the companies out there, it is so 
early if every Fortune 500 or 1000 company does   what these two just did. A tremendous amount of 
wealth comes into this space because Bitcoin and   crypto has primarily been a retail phenomenon 
thus far. It has really been driven by people's   personal accounts, not really their hedge fund 
money, their LP money, but really their personal   money.

That started to change as we 
mentioned before with legendary investors   like Paul Tudor Jones, Stan Druckenmiller, and 
now, we have companies that are doing this.   The dominoes are starting to fall, and 
eventually, it is going to be a central bank,   and some very smart companies may take– a 
country is going to take a huge position in   Bitcoin and talk about it. RAOUL PAL: Game theory 
suggests that if it is the hardest form of money,   one of these countries is going to have a change 
of government, is going to say we are going to   solve the problems, and we are going to buy 
bitcoin as part of our reserves. TYLER WINKLEVOSS:   I tweeted about this. I said, the trade of the 
century is still out there for a couple of people,   a couple of hedge fund managers.

It will be as 
great as the Soros breaking the pound trade.   A couple people take $100 million position in 
Bitcoin hedge fund managers and go talk about it,   whether it is a Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, or anyone 
who's got a fund. Our thesis is that Bitcoin   30X-es from here because it is digital gold, it 
disrupts gold. Bitcoins market cap is 300 billion.   300 billion, gold is 9 trillion, the above 
ground gold is 9 trillion. If Bitcoin's market   cap is 9 trillion, then each Bitcoin will be worth 
$500,000. $100 million trade in Bitcoin right now   for a hedge fund will turn into $3 billion. RAOUL 
PAL: I have not ever seen a risk reward like it in   my entire career, and I have been doing this 30 

TYLER WINKLEVOSS: That is why it is so   crazy that it has not happened yet. Maybe it is 
happening, and we just have not heard of it. That   is why Michael Saylor just bought 50 more million 
Bitcoin. People say, oh, is 19 too high? Well,   it is not too late. Look at what Michael Saylor 
just did. He took $50 million in Bitcoin position,   because he obviously thinks that is going up. 
CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: There is a psychological   barrier around 19,000, 20,000, and people are a 
little scared of it for some reason.

They think   it looks expensive. Our viewpoint, of course, 
is that look, if you bought into Amazon in 2014,   it might look expensive compared to where it was 
in 2000. Still an amazing trade, it is probably   up what? Five, six times from there? That is a 
tremendous trade. It is probably doubling every,   every year. We think there is a 25x, 30x from 
here on the conservative bull case if Bitcoin were   to dethrone gold, but we think it actually has 
greater promise than that because a lot of people   cannot really get access to gold, if you think 
about it, whereas really anybody with an internet   connection gets access to Bitcoin, and there is 
more smart devices on the planet than people.   Yes, the access will be there for digital gold. 
Super, super exciting, but interesting to see   the emotions and the irrational aspects of the 
market sometimes.

My feeling is if we preach the   20,000, when we breached the $20,000 barrier, it 
is all bets are off, and things start running in   a pretty exciting way. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: Like the 
four-minute mile, as soon as Roger Bannister broke   it the next week, and then kept– like it became, 
oh, yes, four minutes is not that big of a deal.   Look, the game theory is that you do not want to 
be the last one into Bitcoin. Two publicly-traded   companies have done it. A couple of hedge fund 
managers have talked about it. It is really early,   but you do not want to be the last manager in. 
RAOUL PAL: Somebody gave me a great tip. Now,   we are humans. Humans are pretty stupid. We anchor 
ourselves in certain things. You've got a chart on   the screen, which we all look at, it is a Bitcoin 

The all-time high is 20,000. We look at   that, and that is what we anchor ourselves on. 
The little trick is change the scale on your chart   and squish it down to the bottom. What 
happens is you immediately think, oh,   it has only just started its move. It is the same 
chart. It is behavioral anchoring. That is what   I urge everybody to do, who is like thinking, oh, 
it is expensive, behaviorally anchoring the chart.   The other thing I do is use regression lines and 
you can use it on the log chart. Suddenly it gives   you just a pretty simple understanding where price 
moves and how it moves, and it just moves on to   meet carcinomas itself.

so thematically, if you just do something simple   like regression analysis and plot that line, you 
are like, oh, okay I see where it is going. Yes,   there is peaks and valleys, but we always 
say, if you are taking a Bitcoin position,   prepare to hold it for five or 10 years. Do 
not get in if that is not your time horizon,   just forget it. The same is true with gold. Who 
wants to trade around gold? That is not the trade   here, but if you can hold this thing– and I think 
the same is true for ether for five to 10 years,   then $19,000, $20,000 entry point is going to be 
very high an entry point. It is so interesting   how as humans, we have these anchoring and biases 
and things like that. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: The other   big one is a lot of people are like wait, I want 
to own one whole Bitcoin and they do not realize,   A, that they can own a fraction of a Bitcoin but 
there is like a mental block or a psychological–   RAOUL PAL: Because again, the anchoring bias 
is gold coin, banknote, physical things.

The   anchoring bias we have is that is all you can 
own. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: That is all you can own,   or my ego says I need to own a whole 
one. I have heard that from young people   as well. There was a movement early on in Bitcoin 
to move at a decimal point, the micro Bitcoin.   That never really took off. I guess if Gemini and 
Coinbase, and all of us said, hey, let us make   Bitcoin 2000– RAOUL PAL: Bitcoin share splits.

that what you are talking about? TYLER WINKLEVOSS:   Or just change our UI, but no. It is like you 
have 200 of this, or it costs $200 or something.   CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: Yes, it is. They split 
companies for that purpose. Here is an interesting   fact. There is something like 40 million plus 
millionaires on the planet. There is of course   only 21 million Bitcoin. There is not enough 
whole Bitcoin, not that you have to buy a whole   for millionaires on the planet. To Tyler's earlier 
point, you do not want to be the last one in and   there is going to be millions of millionaires 
that will never own a full Bitcoin.

RAOUL PAL:   I love that. It is empowering. I have always said 
to people, just to finish off, I have always said   to people, this is the biggest legal frontrunning 
opportunity I have seen in my entire life. Because   we know the institutions have to come in, the more 
the market cap goes up, the more the institutions   have to come in.

It is a ridiculous reflexive 
loop. When you've got the best performing   asset class on Earth, that is market cap is now 
becoming investable by institutions, it drags in   institutions, which brings the market cap up which 
drags in institutions, that cycle is to play out,   has even started. CAMERON WINKLEVOSS: A lot of 
people do not understand that aspect that for   some institutions to invest in an asset class like 
Bitcoin, it has to have a certain size. Because   they are only writing a check of $50 million or 
$100 million per investment. Like if Bridgewater,   I think one of the largest macro hedge funds in 
the world says, hey, we want to put a Bitcoin   trade on, they are not going to be buying millions 
of dollars, they are going to be buying a billion   plus dollars. If they look at the market, and 
the economic bandwidth, or liquidity is only   $100 million, they might say, well, if we buy 1%, 
we are just going to own too much of this thing.   Let us just wait for it to get more expensive 
counter-intuitively, and then we can go in.

We are   getting to that threshold where institutions can 
actually get in based on their rule set or bylaws   or whatever it is. There is those institutions 
who really want to get in and wanted to get in   at 100 billion, and they cannot convince their 
management. RAOUL PAL: The whole space is short   upside call options. It is a really complicated 
thing. Now, the price rises, everybody has to buy   back those call options, because as the price 
rises, they have to get in, it is going to be   a true experience. TYLER WINKLEVOSS: We 
were having conversations a couple years   ago with institutions, and they are like, it 
is just not expensive enough for us right now.   As your point and at some point, they will 
see like 100,000 Bitcoin, they are like, okay,   we are going to [?] within that, and it goes 
even higher.

It has not even started. We are   just seeing institutional, sophisticated people 
start to trickle in, but the biggest money is   still on the sidelines, but it is coming. It is 
so inevitable. It has been from my point of view,   since I started looking at this eight years 
ago, like, Bitcoin was always going to   happen. It just we did not have the computer 
science breakthroughs to make it possible.   It was always going to happen, and it is going 
to happen.

It is happening. RAOUL PAL: Guys,   thank you so much for your time. Really 
enjoyable conversation. Hopefully, we can give   people something to think about as well. TYLER 
Awesome. See you. NICK CORREA: Thank you for   watching this interview. This is just a taste of 
what we do at Real Vision. To learn more about the   complex world of finance, business, and the global 
economy, click on the membership link in the   description. Give us 7 days to change your life. 
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