The Fourth Turning & the End of Financial Cycle is Here | Bitcoin is the Only Option for Prosperity!

modern humans view as a linear phenomenon a 
steady march of progress from a worst past to   an improved future however life doesn't progress 
linearly instead it follows a natural rhythm   a circle of life if you will practically speaking 
days months and years are simply convenient names   given to the observable cycles in astronomy the 
earth rotating on an axis the moon around our   earth and the earth circumnavigating the sun 
spring summer fall and winter life and death   the carbon cycle the water cycle we're surrounded 
by natural cycles the wisdom of cycles is embedded   in modern culture represented by common phrases 
like history doesn't repeat but it rhymes and   there are decades when nothing happens and 
weeks when decades happen ancient man observed   a human cycle called ceculum which essentially 
means a long human life or roughly 90 years   the original meaning was the amount of time 
between an event happening and when everyone   who experienced that event had died at that point 
a new circulum would start each 90-year period   secular can be divided into four stages 
each lasting approximately 22 years   these turnings are often represented by the 
seasons or represented by the stages of life   namely youth young adulthood midlife and 
old age the four generational archetypes   each turning has a well-defined mood that 
produces a well-defined generation of people   each generation embodies one of the four 
archetypes that appear in a specific repeating   order the full cycle takes roughly 90 years 
or one full saculum each archetype follows a   similar script throughout history prophet 
baby boomers principled yet narcissistic   nomad gen x practical yet unfeeling hero 
millennials competent yet unreflective   artist ginzy caring yet indecisive these 
generational trends are a natural emergent human   phenomenon we have well-defined stages of life and 
predictable human characteristics interestingly we   can observe this cycle pattern going back 500 
plus years there is a symbolic relationship   between history and generations the historic 
moment imprints itself onto the new generation   then that generation grows up it changes history 
each circulum is made up of four turnings   just as generations follow cyclical 
patterns each 90-year sacrum is composed   of four well-defined stages called turnings 
that dictate how society responds to events   each turning is defined by the constellation of 
general archetypes in respective stages of life   are the hero archetypes still children or 
middle-aged managers are profits coming of   age or are they elders controlling politics 
first turning rebirth spring 1946 to 1964.   second turning revolution summer 1964-1984 
third turning unraveling fall 1984-2008   fourth turning crisis winter 2008-2030 the two 
most potent times in history are when prophets   and heroes enter adulthood prophets come of 
age in second turnings and cause revolution   throughout these generational cycles history 
oscillates between classical opposing forces   capital versus labor liberty versus equality 
isolationism versus expansionism are some   generations better than others the short answer 
is no each generation has strengths and weaknesses   that must be balanced out by the others this 
cycle serves as a guard rail ensuring humanity   doesn't spiral out of control if the profit 
archetype is in power too long society would   decay and nothing would be built because everyone 
is selfishly focused on their own interior world   sound familiar we are in the current cycle 
first turning the american high 1946-1964   second turning conscious revolution 1964-1984 
third turning culture wars 1984-2008   fourth turning millennial crisis 2008-2030 
since 2008 america has been in the fourth   turning which is the final stage in a roughly 
90-year cycle in order to set the context   let's rewind to the beginning of our 
current cycle known as the millennial sacrum   first turning the great american high 1946-1964 
the lost generation enters elderhood gi generation   enters midlife silent generation enters 
young adulthood boomers enter childhood   our current cycle began as we wrapped up world 
war ii and america ascended to a global superpower   everyone's grown tired of fighting civic 
duty reaches a peak as we rebuild back home   middle class grew and prospered increased 
peacetime government budgets were uncontroversial   second turning conscious revolution 1964-1984 gi 
generation enters elderhood silent enters midlife   boomers enter young adulthood gen xers 
inter-childhood kicked off with urban riots   in campus protest supercharged by anti-vietnam 
war sentiment led by a rebellious youth   boomers led the revolution they clashed with the 
bland leave it the beaver culture lacking anything   resembling spirituality this gave rise to feminist 
environmentalist and black power movements   third turning culture wars 1984-2007 silent 
enter elderhood boomers enter midlife gen   x enter young adulthood millennials enter 
childhood an unraveling begins as society   embraces the liberating cultural forces let 
loose by the boomer-led conscious revolution   of the psychedelic 60s personal satisfaction is 
high a few national problems demand immediate   action public is concerned about widening 
inequality civic duty declines and culture   begins to diverge into competing value camps 
fourth turning millennial crisis 2008 to 2030.   boomers enter elderhood gen x enters 
midlife millennials enter young adulthood   zoomers enter childhood the 2008-2009 global 
financial crisis kicked off the millennial crisis   and the population finally demanded change occupy 
wall street movement surged obama took office   campaigning on hope and change society shifts 
away from individualism and towards collectivism   marked by the rise of social justice warriors 
cancel culture and policing speech the   crisis heats up in 2020 with a coveted 
pandemic widespread economic depression   and riots erupting on the streets anatomy of 
a fourth turning crisis during fourth turnings   the old social order combusts and gives birth 
to something entirely new welcome to winter   a time of fire and ice the supply of social 
order is still falling but the demand for order   is steadily rising although not required fourth 
turnings historically end with a total war while   fourth turnings are not fun this is not a doom and 
gloom prophecy as society we need these moments of   crisis they serve as brush fires to clean out the 
decrepit institutions to make way for new growth   this generates buy-in from young people out 
with the old and in with anew optimistically   it's a regenerative process allowing the cycle 
to continue morphology of a crisis fourth turning   catalyst 2008 each crisis begins with an 
event that produces a sudden shift in the   mood 2008 global financial crisis occupy wall 
street and obama's open change regeneracy 2012   once catalyzed society finds a new counter 
entropy that reunifies and re-energizes civic life   rise of democratic socialism bernie sanders 
popularity equal pay for equal jobs climax   2021 a crucial moment that confirms the death of 
the old order and birth of the new typically the   climax is a war world war ii civil war etc but so 
far all we've experienced is the covet pandemic   are we destined for war war on the virus 
loss of liberties riots economic inequalities   becoming the hot topic and universal basic 
income begins resolution 2026 a triumphant   or tragic conclusion that separates the winners 
from the losers resolves the big public questions   and establishes the new order this has yet to play 
out in our current cycle each crisis ends with a   resolution period which historically speaking 
is three to five years before a crisis concludes   we haven't hit the resolution yet but we'll 
know when the mood transforms into one of   exhaustion relief and optimism we'll see a 
resurgence of faith in humanity and authority   and society will yearn for a good and simple life 
today's oldest americans recognized this mood from   the previous fourth turning during the great 
depression and world war ii cultural artifacts   from the last russian period include somewhere 
over the rainbow and 1939 new york world's fair   a better future on the horizon if we could 
only work together and make personal sacrifices   lessons from the previous fourth turning 1929-1946   in response to the stock market crash of 
1929 and the widespread economic hardship   the move became one of desperation previously 
unthinkable policies gained popular support as   roosevelt led the greatest expansion 
of the federal government ever known   this was a natural consequence of implementing 
the federal reserve in 1913.

Social dynamics   in the 1930s mirrored today both the 1930s and 
the 2010s produced declining fertility rates   low migration to america declining violent crimes 
and many young people living with their parents   the start of widespread deficit spending in 
1933 roosevelt made gold illegal to hold for u.s   citizens also in 1933 fdr kicked off his flagship 
program the new deal which focused on three things   relief for the poor recovery of the economy 
and reforming the financial system to prevent   another depression since the crisis was so severe 
progressive leaders and average americans demanded   the fed take greater responsibility 
to help the poor and prevent poverty   the 1940s and world war ii the period of 
tremendous fiscal spending continued into   the 40s to support the war efforts debt levels 
reached their peak but were quickly resolved after   world war ii due to america's relative position of 
strength and the new monetary system bretton woods   analyzing our current fourth turning 2008-2030 
considering what we know about the previous fourth   turnings here are the key trends to follow as 
society seeks to deconstruct existing institutions   domestic politics the rise of populism and 
everyone's a socialist 2020 marks the widest   partisan gap since the 1930s people under 30 
are predominantly left-leaning and those over 60   heavily lean right to make matters worse the most 
ideological generation in the history controls   politics trust in the central government is the 
lowest it's been in the last century in 1961   80 percent of people said they trust the federal 
government to do the right thing in 2020 that   number dropped to only 20 percent trust the 
federal government trump's 2016 political victory   is a symptom of the crisis mood the people wanted 
change and trump successfully captured the mood   with a successful drain the swamp campaign the 
rise of bernie can be explained in the same way   the consolidation of power is guaranteed but if 
we're not careful we'll fall into totalitarianism   as we're seeing around the world just like fdr in 
the 1930s america is doomed to repeat a decade of   expanding the federal government in 2020 alone 
we saw universal basic income business bailouts   yield curve control via qe and more will this be 
enough not a chance we're just getting warmed up   before the decade is over modern monetary theory 
will run its course we'll see some combination of   universal basic income college loan forgiveness 
free health care increased minimum wage and more   the appetite for handouts will be insatiable 
populism and in many cases totalitarianism   is rising all around the world look no further 
than maduro's venezuela duterte's philippines   maldi's india jeez china the yellow vest movement 
in france and many more this points to a global   synchronization of these demographic cycles since 
world war ii in addition this is the first time   in history we've seen the world connected under 
a globally dominant reserve u.s currency dollar   if every country is in a fourth turning 
simultaneously the results could be explosive   third turnings produce relaxed borders increased 
international travel and waves of immigration   fourth turnings reverse all that global trade as 
the percentage of global gdp peaked in 2008 and   has been declining since the pendulum is swinging 
towards isolationism covid exposed our reliance on   foreign imports especially from an increasingly 
hostile china politicians will respond by   incentivizing manufacturers in america and the 
market will support it america's foreign policy   will support global trade as long as it comes 
with no political baggage minimizing political   baggage abroad is good for many things including 
the fact that trade is more profitable than war   the shift isolationism will expose nations who 
are reliant on crucial foreign imports such as   energy food and medicine combined with a slowing 
gdp and increasing sovereign debt nation states   will flail in desperation expect more civil wars 
hyperinflation events deadly totalitarianism   and regional conflicts soon after america gets 
plunged into a spending fiscal crisis marked by   world war ii and covet 19 potentially another 
conflict in 2021.

With powerless central banks   the only option is massive government spending 
in the form of qe and ubi just like in the 1940s   this setup indicates an inflationary period and a 
high risk of currency failures coming in the 2020s   although we'll likely see a couple of years of 
deflation first this brings us to the key question   what do we do with all the debt one option is 
a decade or two of austerity think high taxes   and low government spending highly unlikely 
since there's no political will for austerity   increased global gdp highly unlikely as the world 
is heading into a recession and the demographics   are against us what about debt forgiveness since 
the fed owns most of the student loan debt they   can simply press delete on their spreadsheet 
seems pretty likely under the circumstances   and it would empower young people to 
start families and buy homes from boomers   how about increasing taxes on the wealthy during 
the previous fourth turning the tax rate for the   highest earners soared from 25 percent to almost 
63 percent by 1937.

This was known as soak the   rich in the 30s and a similar sentiment is 
gaining steam in america today seems inevitable as   millennials take power away from aging boomers our 
final option is to devalue the debt in real terms   this would likely be accomplished by qualitative 
easing and increasing the broad money base   the federal reserve will now have an unlimited 
budget to buy as many assets treasuries corporate   debt and soon-to-be equities as necessary to 
keep interest rates down practically speaking   that means anyone holding dollars or bonds will 
see negative real returns for the next decade   again just like the 1940s at the same time 
the government will increase the broad money   base with various forms of government spending and 
ubi what about hyperinflation as wheat currencies   break down some will hyperinflate which draws more 
attention to bitcoin's value proposition how long   before a nation state moves heavily into bitcoin 
venezuela already runs btc pay server iran gives   tax incentives to minors marshall island tried 
launching their own ico the writing's on the wall   judging by the incentives alone smaller nations 
will adopt bitcoin by 2030 likely sooner what   about the united states although some bitcoiners 
believe we'll see hyperinflation with the usd   i'm skeptical the usd is still in high demand 
globally and the us has a relatively strong   economy with relatively sound demographics 
the usd won't hyperinflate this decade but   it will be majorly devalued bitcoin is 
the life raft during the great fiat flood   bitcoin is our best hope for a peaceful 
transition to a new financial system   individuals can opt out of their local 
currency by joining the bitcoin life raft   protect purchasing power rather than go down with 
the sinking ship that is their state this reduces   conflict risk as fewer citizens become desperate 
as currencies collapse and resources become scarce   nations will become desperate which often leads 
to bloody conflict adopting bitcoin early means   states and individuals will benefit from bitcoin's 
price appreciation increased economic opportunity   and a head start in a new paradigm in some cases 
this may de-escalate conflicts by minimizing   fallout from failed states let me know what 
you guys think about 4th turning is bitcoin   the answer leave your thoughts in the comments 
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