MOST Predictable Bitcoin PUMP (Why BTC is Going to the MOON)

one of the major value propositions that bitcoin offers to investors is that it has a predictable monetary policy and development schedule but if you're watching bitcoin's price action on a day-to-day basis predictable is probably the last word that would come to mind price can be extremely volatile leaving many of us always guessing which way it will go however there are a few models that have been able to predict bitcoin's price over longer time frames with shocking level success i'm going to show you what they are today and tell you why they're important let's get it welcome to bitboy crypto home of the bit squad the largest and greatest crypto community on all the interwebs my name is ben everyday on this channel i show you how to make money in crypto if you like money in crypto then make sure to hit that subscribe button in this video i'm gonna give an overview of the bitcoin habiting cycle and stock to flow model which has done an incredible job at tracking the price of bitcoin stock to flow was first introduced in a 2019 blog post from an anonymous bitcoin researcher who calls himself plan b this model uses bitcoin scarcity and scheduled issuance to give a rough estimate of where the price will be in the future it's pretty complex and involves some math but on a service level it's not too difficult to understand the stock to flow ratio is determined by figuring out the total amount of bitcoin currently in the market and dividing that by the amount that is scheduled to be produced with bitcoin the production of the asset is extremely predictable which makes this model very accurate however it has also been used for commodities like gold and silver but they are more likely to see deviations because their rate of supply is not as predictable bitcoin stock to flow ratio is also compounded by a having a mechanism that's triggered every four years on the network cutting the production of bitcoin in half technically this happens every time that 210 000 blocks are mined which works out to roughly four years the first bitcoin having took place in 2012 when the reward for mining a block on the bitcoin network went from 50 btc to 25 btc 2016 a second halving event cut the rewards down to 12.5 bitcoin per block and then on may 11 2020 just before massive bull run kicked off the reward or flow was reduced down to 6.25 btc per block the next halving is expected to happen sometime in early 2024 further reducing the production flow numbers aside the important thing to remember here is that the bitcoin bull cycles have traditionally been driven by the having which reduces the flow of new bitcoin into circulation which in turn makes the remaining supply or stock more valuable assuming that a steady rate of demand continues in august of last year fidelity digital assets published an assessment of plan b's model and recognize that commodities with high stock to flow ratios have historically served as superior stores of value the report also noted the bitcoin stock to flow ratio will surpass that of gold after the next having thought it was a good sign that fidelity was very bullish on bitcoin long term and even quoted brian kelly of bkcm when he said bitcoin is the most significant innovation in finance since the medicis invented double entry accounting and when it comes to money always trust the paisanos having cycles and available stock of bitcoin might inform the s2f model but there is an older model that is based on some seriously old-school numbers the bitcoin golden bull ratio bitcoin is strong like bull that's obvious no other store value asset in history is appreciated in value like bitcoin has in such a short period of time the golden portion of the golden bull ratio gets its name from the golden ratio which is 1.681 the ratio was used so much the greeks gave it the symbol phi to simplify their equations hundreds of years later mathematical italian leonardo fibonacci started using it to make some numbers that he named after himself these numbers came to be known as the fibonacci sequence and they become so important to science and finance the day traders will trade using fibonacci retracement sequences or fibs for short so you take two mathematical concepts and apply them to an algorithm based monetary system like bitcoin you start to see some pretty astounding results you line up the variant of the 350 day ema as ribbons on a graph you'll notice that bitcoin has been tracking between them its entire life the golden bull ratio has it on its page on trading view majority of the price predictions come out of stock to flow including my own have been based on analysis of the stock to flow model plan b's price target for the end of the year was a range between 100k and 288k and with the price action that we've seen throughout this history of bitcoin this is still a possibility at this point 288k is probably out of reach for this year but we've seen the price of bitcoin double or even triple across very short time frames before earlier this year we watched price jump from the low 30 thousands to the high 50 thousands in just one month back in february around the time the bitcoin had nearly doubled in price from the previous month plan b conducted a survey on twitter asking his followers if they believe bitcoin would end up closer to 288k or 100k and a large majority of his followers chose a hundred thousand dollars for a minute there it looked like bitcoin was really going to exceed expectations until the bull run was put on hold by a series of suspicious events that spread fear throughout the markets and pushed prices down to levels we thought we'd never see again just like other commodities the price of bitcoin can be also influenced by outside forces like tweets regulation or larger macro factors but the stock to flow model has still been surprisingly accurate even in the face of black swan events that disrupted global trade sure bitcoin has seen huge sell-offs during times of market uncertainty which caused it to deviate from the stock to flow projections but in most cases we've seen this asset quickly correct and return to the path that was predicted by plan b we are currently in one of those times where the actual price of bitcoin has strayed pretty far from the product flow projection but we've also been seeing unprecedented manipulation in the markets over the past several months we have seen a massive bud campaign where governments media institutions and muskrats all seem to agree the bitcoin is bad for some reason or another we've also seen whales taking advantage of this uncertainty to shake out retail investors with large sell orders meanwhile these very same whales the institutions are negotiating with regulators to offer their own crypto services and products these whales aren't just accumulating they're shifting their business models to accommodate this new technology when institutions are telling you one thing and doing another that's a good sign there's some manipulation or misdirection taking place and in this case it's probably both it's certainly a problem that whales can use their money and influence to move the price of bitcoin but they do this with every asset in every market globally at least with bitcoin they can't manipulate the issuance or the supply this is why the stock to flow model is so resilient in the face of change in volatile markets i personally feel that it's a solid model that we have to get a good idea of what's happening in the markets from it's just been too accurate in the past for me to deny but historical data works until it doesn't even plan b the model's creator has been having some doubts himself and instead the price activity in the upcoming weeks and months will make or break his stock to flow thesis plan b said the bitcoin's price has not deviated this far from the projections since january of 2019 you can easily see that the price was far below the projected path on the stock to flow chart in the beginning of 2019.

that's where the green dots dip far under the target for a significant length of time however you can also clearly see that the price immediately rallied and returned to equilibrium with a stock to flow model after that sell-off could we be seeing a similar situation playing out again where the price of bitcoin will shock everyone and race to catch up with the stock to flow projections truly it's impossible to know at this point especially with all the manipulation that we've seen in these markets but with the fundamentals as strong as they are i have a hard time believing that we are headed into another crypto winner right now that's all i got be blessed good boy out [Music] you.

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