you know after we had 10 10 days straight upwards 
uh you know it's not crazy to think perhaps we   have some kind of you know mean reversion in 
the short term where we you know maybe cool   off for a few days or a week or something 
like that after 10 straight days upwards   um but you know over the next week next couple 
weeks next month or so i would be looking for   for much higher prices um you know 50k plus 
in that range just based off of where um   these supply shock metrics are pricing 
in bitcoin do you think that the do you   think that the bottom is in and what degree of 
confidence do you have if the bottom's in or not all right welcome back everybody to alt coin daily 
my name's austin very happy to have an analyst   on the channel that we've referenced many times 
in our videos has a huge following on twitter   will clement the third bitcoin on chain analyst 
man thanks for joining us hey guys thanks for   having me i'm super excited to do this for sure 
man what's new on the east coast where you're from uh not too much i'm getting ready to head back 
to school here in about a week and a half so   just packing up my stuff and getting 
ready to get out of my parents house   and then uh with them for too long my 
school year got quite short last year i was   at school for like two weeks so i'm ready to 
make the most out of this year interesting and   you know i think that's a perfect segue for you 
to maybe just like introduce yourself on how you   got started into cryptocurrency the tools you 
use as an analyst because you are young but the   beauty sort of bitcoin is everybody's kind of on 
the same playing field figuring this out together yeah absolutely i think you know like the the 
community is very unique in the sense that   you know nobody cares if you have like an 
anime character as your profile picture   or you know whatever whatever it is or your 
kids to living with your parents it like   as long as you provide some sort of value um 
you know the community is going to recognize   that you know part of that is just because 
it is so new and you know people are just   looking for as much information in the space 
as they can get so um yeah it's you know i   think we have the best community in terms of 
like fintech in general and um it you know   it's been really sick to just see people be uh 
you know so uh open arms and just in general so   for sure um cool let's kick it off i'd love for 
you to take us through some charts or analysis   as if we'd never seen him before yeah 
sure um let me screenshare real quick okay so i think like the best way we could 
probably do this is just you know run through   what's going you know going on in the market right 
now so let me pull this one short up so um i guess   i could start with this so i use a glass node 
and you know there's a couple different data   providers there's a glass node there's a crypto 
quant there's coinmetrics which i know is very   popular kind of amongst uh us hedge funds there's 
also whale maps they do some heuristics on whale   activity um so you know there's a lot of new data 
providers in the space still very young still very   niche so you know kind of this small community 
that that's you know self-policing people kind   of keep each other in check you know it's very 
unique in the sense of everyone's just kind of   figuring it out as we go because there is no like 
you know formal education for this stuff and uh   everybody's just kind of bouncing ideas off of uh 
everybody else so i think you know it it's very   unique in that sense and you know i really enjoy 
it um you know on chain is it's very unique to   uh bitcoin and you can also do it for other coins 
as well but you know i focus on bitcoin in general   um you know in the traditional financial world 
you have technical analysis which is basically   where you're analyzing the price or price action 
um you know so you're looking at things like   moving averages you're drawing you know lines 
on charts um different patterns things like   that different key levels to try to look at you're 
looking at the momentum of the price and and all   these different things but um you know bitcoin and 
cryptocurrency in general is unique in the sense   that we can actually look into the blockchain 
which is completely transparent um you know   because we have this this open ledger and so um 
you know what these data providers are able to do   is um you know they they're able to sift through 
this data and then um you know give us different   signals and and metrics to to analyze and then 
come to conclusions about the market and so in my   opinion um glass node is is the best in business 
just because they have some very interesting data   um in terms of looking at different entities 
on the blockchain which is something other   data providers don't have um and so that's why 
i mainly use um glass node but there are other   data providers that have you know very good data 
as well and you know it's useful to to have them   just to cross reference sometimes so you know if 
i see something on glass node you see some huge   inflow or alpha from an exchange or you know you 
see whales some huge spike and activity from them   that just seems like an outlier it's it's good 
to have those other data providers to go and say   okay you know maybe it's not registering in glass 
nodes heuristics for whatever reason so you know i   can look at coinmetrics or crypto quant and just 
double check that so i think like there is value   in having at least some kind of like basic level 
access to each of them if you are trying to do   this analysis um and and so um i i think like one 
of the one of the most important things in terms   of the market right now is um the this whole idea 
of this supply shock and this is something i've   been tracking for about a month now and then both 
my newsletter and this weekly uh podcast i do with   pomp where we basically just do a verbal overview 
of the newsletter honestly um and so i i thought   like you know about a month back um you pull up 
a chart so we can like look at something like   yeah yeah cool cool dude he was building to that 
yeah yeah i did i was building up slowly there   i loved it dude this is a good one okay so 
you know at the end of may we had this big   capitulation event we're like let me zoom 
in here i'm not seeing a chart i see one oh there it is yeah i got it cool yeah so at the 
end of may we had this big capitulation event   where we had a lot of coins that you know were 
obviously sold but they were they were very young   coins um and so you know to me what what this 
uh you know another way to award this is these   are the weak hands in the market right these 
are these are the people that haven't been in   the market for a long time and so you can see 
here in may we have this this big drawdown and   what this metric is is it's a ratio of these 
the strong hands in the market um which are   glaston calls it the liquid um supply um so this 
is showing that the amount of supply held by   a liquid entity so these are these are entities 
on the blockchain that have a very low history   of selling so like they take a lot of coins in 
right but they don't move a lot out so these   are like the long-term investors in the market 
and so what we saw like at the beginning of the   year is this big run-up in this right so you had 
a lot of coins moving to these market participants   that had very low um selling history and then 
here at the end of may um what had previously   registered on the heuristics as strong hands 
um those marked participants began to move out   and we can get into the reason why i think that 
and i think um that was mostly because a lot of   capital had come in and um kind of taken 
like this market neutral position which   is a whole nother conversation but you know 
they're taking advantage of the great scale   arbitrage or the arbitrage between the spot 
and the futures price and things like this   but anyway you had this huge drawdown in the 
liquid supply but since uh you know late mid may   you've had this slow reaccumulation phase and and 
this is what i had been tracking you know the slow   grind up in this metric and so this is showing 
those coins that have kind of gotten uh puked   out for lack of better words or had slowly been 
getting reabsorbed by these strong hands um and   then you know about a month ago you had this big 
uptick you see you know and so what what this was   showing to me is like okay this re-accumulation 
that i had bought was going to take a while   you know perhaps is is um you know not going 
to be as prolonged as i suspected and it's very   interesting because you see this is this is slowly 
turning up but at the same time we price you know   trending sideways bearish um and so for anybody 
who has any kind of like technical analysis   knowledge you know this is a classic divergence 
where you have the oscillator or the indicator   going in one direction while price is going in 
the opposite direction and then eventually the   idea is that um you know the oscillator wins 
out and that's that eventually gets priced in   and so that's what i had been watching here 
for especially after this move right here   and then you know about two weeks ago we finally 
got that pop up in price here um and you know this   is this has had another leg up but um this this 
price action in my opinion is credited to this   pop right here and this huge divergence that we 
had because essentially what you have coins moving   to people that you know have very low sp spending 
history and so just from you know first principles   there's less supply that's available to be bought 
right and and so bitcoin is driven by scarcity of   course we all know that bitcoin has limited supply 
and so when you have supply is moved into um   you know entities that have the slow this low uh 
spending history those coins are not available to   be bought and so it takes coins out of circulation 
that that you know could could be traded right   um and so when you look at this we're now 
currently at a level that's currently priced   bitcoin at about 50 to 55k in terms of supply 
shock and so this is one way to look at this this   is like a kind of a qualitative view by looking at 
the spending uh the spending behavior of investors   but this is another way to look at it this is 
a more qualitative view so this is the that   was the liquid supply ratio this is the exchange 
supply shock ratio and these are both pretty much   showing the same thing and they're both showing 
um you know the the supply uh shortage basically   in the market so when you look at this 
chart um are you do you get like i'm   very bullish on leaning towards bullish or like 
does it have to break above all-time highs for you   to get like very bullish at that last charge oh 
sure so like the way i the way i look at this is   this is intermediate term bullish so perhaps over 
the next couple weeks things like that um you know   as you saw sometimes it takes it it could take a 
little while for it to get priced in necessarily   um and and i also see it as like the larger the 
divergence the bigger the um the the movement is   in price once it finally gets priced in so in my 
opinion we're just now starting to see the effect   of both of these metrics that are looking at the 
supply shortage and it'll start to get priced in   over the coming weeks i think um you know you 
know after we had 10 10 days straight upwards   uh you know it's not crazy to think perhaps we 
have some kind of you know mean reversion in the   short term where we you know maybe cool off for 
a few days or a week or something like that after   10 straight days upwards um but you know over 
the next week next couple weeks next month or   so i would be looking for for much higher prices 
you know 50k plus in that range just based off of   where um these supply shock metrics are pricing 
in in bitcoin do you think that the uh do you   think that the bottom is in and what degree of 
confidence do you have if the bottom's in or not   yeah um i do think the bottom's in uh because um 
you know first of all just looking at you know   that breakdown really didn't have any volume so 
you didn't really see bear stepping in with any   kind of you know conviction um and and also like 
all the coins that had been been being sold oh   sorry that was really bad grammar there um it was 
young coins right so it was mark participants like   i said that had come in in the last few months etc 
um it wasn't like og selling their coins so like   to me i i would be cautious if if you know the 
market started rallying and then all of a sudden   we saw long-term investors just dumping their 
coins because then to me that would say okay the   the smart money in the space was just looking 
for exit liquidity they were just looking for   the dead cat bounds and you know they're just 
they have no confidence in the market you know   as soon as price rallies you know they're just 
looking to like gtfo right um and that's that's   kind of what happened in in late 2017 you had this 
this second relief bounce and then all of a sudden   long-term investors were just like okay we'll take 
the exit liquidity here's here's the balance we're   looking for we just want to get out right um and 
so that's what i would be watching for but so far   all the selling has continued to be from those 
um you know younger coins and not necessarily um   long-term holders um i can get to 
another chart looking at the the   actual long-term holder uh you know uh 
buying and selling behavior versus short-term   um but i just want to show this real quick this 
is another way to look at that supply shock   so we looked at a qualitative view which is 
looking at the spending behavior of those entities   that are buying but this is actually looking 
at a quantitative view so this is looking at   a ratio between the amount of coins on exchanges 
to the overall supply and so you know this is   literally saying how many coins are available 
to be bought right now and so you know in late   may once again we had a lot of coins moved on to 
exchanges we had like 145 thousand coins moved   up to exchanges in a matter of like three to four 
weeks so just like waves and waves of coins coming   onto exchanges um and so this is what the you know 
this draw down here and then once again you had   this slow reaccumulation slow grind up right we 
were kind of making higher highs here nothing like   insane but it was you know the slow reabsorption 
process process while we were in this range for   the past three months so what exactly is this 
purple line showing us as far as exchanges go   yeah sure so this is a ratio of the amount 
of coins on exchanges relative to the overall   circulating supply so it's basically showing you 
the the um you know the amount of coins that are   available to be bought on exchange i see and so 
instead of like you could just look at you could   look at um you know the exchange balance chart but 
i like this personally better because it's it's a   showing you that in relativity to the overall 
supply so you know if you go back and look at a   historical chart um you know you have to factor in 
for the amount of supply to really understand like   the the amount of supply shortage relative to the 
amount on exchanges so this this does that so the   purple line goes up does that mean that coins are 
coming off of exchanges yes and that's what i was   going to get so like in instead of looking at when 
you usually look at the exchange balance chart   you see it going down right and so it's kind of 
counterintuitive to people that aren't really   you know like uh intuitive with this stuff um 
so i like this ratio because when it goes up it   means bullish so i think it just like for people 
visually it just makes more sense but yeah you   see that this massive uptick that we've had here 
um and this is like a huge amount of coins that   have moved off exchanges lately so we're starting 
to see both a qualitative and quantitative um you   know effective supply shock also just for audience 
i always like to make sure we're looking at   you know leading indicators as opposed to trailing 
indicators both of those looked like leading   indicators meaning it went off the exchanges 
or into the long term hold their stance first   and then the price followed absolutely and um 
i just want to throw this in as well like a   lot of people will look at kind of the intraday 
flows like oh there's some huge you know inflow   or outflow i don't really like to look at that 
stuff i think it's it's more useful to kind of   look at the broader trend right like what's going 
on over several weeks um and you know you can get   caught up in kind of the intraday flows and that 
can just get like really noisy and just in general   here's another interesting chart we're talking 
about like the long-term short-term thing   um this is the supply held by long-term holders 
so the way glass node classifies this is they   use a certain threshold so they you know these 
people are like insanely smart like the cto of   glassness is like an ex-neuroscientist so they 
do all kinds of heuristics and statistics to   do this stuff but they ran a statistic uh study 
on on the behavior of different entities on the   blockchain and they found that when you go 
past a certain threshold the likelihood of um   those entities selling just drops off 
dramatically and so that threshold is 155 days or   exactly five months um and so that that's how they 
distinguish long-term versus short-term holders   um and so this chart is looking at the amount 
of supply held by long-term holders and actually   this might be more useful i can compare 
it to um the short term holder starts like is your personal strategy are you like fully 
uh got your core position taken out are you   still cost averaging are you uh yeah sure um i 
i mostly hold right so i hold like uh 75 80 of   my bitcoin and then i trade that smaller portion 
based off mostly on chain flows but i do look at   you know some things like ta um order book 
analysis and some other things just to get a more   uh well-rounded view as far as this dip 
in the last three months though you have   you have slowly yeah i've just been slowly 
building up a position kind of in the bottom   of that range you know kind of between 30 
35k um you know scooped up a little below   you know below 30k but mostly i was just averaging 
in that range because i was seeing you know mostly   on chain that that kind of reaccumulation phase cool so this is this chart here is looking at 
um the supply held by long-term holders versus   um short-term holders blue is long-term yes blue 
is long-term holders and then this kind of weird   gold brown color um is is short-term and so what 
you see is i'm sorry let me move i had the zoom   thing and then in front of my cursor um what you 
see is throughout you know in a general sense   in bull runs you see long term 
holders distributing their coins   while short-term holders um probably be useful 
if i had the price in here right would you say   in general um long-term holders distribute 
their coins into strength right so this is   this is the smart money in the space that's been 
in for a long time and so they know um you know   retail will come in and fomo in during during bull 
markets we have these crazy overextended rallies   where speculation just comes in and drives the 
price way up um and so the smart money starts   you know scaling out um let me change the color 
this looks confusing they start to scale out when   when we really start running up um so here you'll 
see we'll just look at the 2013 bull run and then   we'll look at 2017 and now so here in 2013 um once 
again the bottom line is uh short-term holders   right and the top line is long-term holders 
going into the first uh you know rally in 2013   short-term holders started buying and then you see 
that long-term holder chart that started trending   down so you had distribution to those to those 
right short term holders are buying the tops of   all of these uh rallies yes exactly and you know 
for a lack of better words it's it's smart money   distributing to uh dumb money uh that's just 
i mean that's just the truth um when when you   get into um kind of this this midway point here um 
what's interesting is you actually started to see   um long-term holders accumulating again in between 
the two double pumps and this is why i think   this is interesting because it's similar to what 
you're seeing now but we'll get to that um when we   when we get down there um so yeah you started 
to see price was going down all the speculators   started scaling out long-term holders started 
buying in because you know this was like from peak   to trough like 85 percent draw down to the bottom 
between the the two 2013 double pumps um so you   started to see long-term holders scoop up those 
cheap coins and then when we rallied again you saw   speculators come in and drive that price up into 
that euphoric blow off top while those long-term   holders scaled out once again here we head back 
into the bear market and here you see once again   short-term holders moving out bitcoin isn't 
going up insane amount so speculators leave and   it's not fun anymore but the long-term investors 
with you know real conviction they're gobbling   up these cheap prices they're buying heavily right 
so then we head back into the 2017 bull market and   then once again you start to see these short-term 
holders starting to buy up and you start to see   here the long-term holders begin to scale out once 
again and so you see that distribution into the   blow off top here literally right at the blow 
off top you have you know that this max uh you   know distribution between the two and then you see 
once again the long-term holders begin to buy this   is beautiful it's just this beautiful divergence 
between the two things and you can really see how   the money that's been in for a long time um you 
know they have conviction in these lower prices   when all the people that are new to the space are 
freaking out these people are stepping into buying   very heavily um and and once again here we are 
in in the current uh you know current bull run   that we've been in um you know short-term holders 
coming in long-term holders began scaling out kind   of towards the end of the year and kind of mid mid 
october of last year and then you got to kind of   the peak around around late uh march early early 
april but what's interesting is that now long-term   holders have started buying again wall shorts from 
holders had began selling um and so there you know   there's four other instances that that we just 
looked at where this happened so a at the end of   the bull market here here i'm sorry there's three 
other instances um and then here between the two   2013 double pumps um and this is this is where 
the long-term holders actually were buying right   um and then you can also look here technically um 
but i wouldn't say this is this is you know quite   as dramatic as this but you did also see halfway 
through the bull market that short-term holders   began selling off and long-term holders um kind 
of like pushed you know the bull run into into   that kind of final phase um but i would say this 
is this was really kind of a better representation   of where i believe we are now where you have 
long-term holders kind of coming in and set the   floor um but zooming in i mean long-term holders 
are buying it like you're saying you think you   think it's comparable to the beginning of 2017 is 
what you're saying um well kind of late 2016 um   or or in my opinion uh mid 2013 just in the 
sense that you have this kind of mini bear phase   um and the long-term holders and kind of strong 
hands are coming in and setting that floor   by the way how long do you think because if it's 
like comparable to you know mid 2013 cycle but   even more so you know if it's comparable to like 
late 2016 to me that would imply we stop like a   long time before we reach the eventual top do you 
think how far do you think we're are into this   cycle how long do you think it'll go yeah sure 
it's a great question um you know i i don't really   look at timing to be honest i think i think that's 
just like really hard to predict and we only have   two sample sizes right we only have 2013 2017 
so it's like try to extrapolate the timing um i   i don't really find that useful to be honest um 
but i try to look for like similar behaviors and   then try to kind of estimate what's going to go 
on in kind of intermediate term obviously like   what goes on months from now i can't really tell 
because i can only look at what the data is saying   now we'll figure that out when we get there 
but um yeah you know the way i see it is like   the the timing could could extend out to you know 
mid 2022 it could be the end of this year i just   personally have no idea about the exact timing 
but i do see us having this kind of second run up cool cool and what about this chart oh i was just 
saying so like you know you have really dramatic   accumulation right now from from these long-term 
holders i mean you know you you're seeing   right now so their peak at like 10 nine 
so i mean why do you say why do you say   it's why do you say it's really dramatic 
i see like the line starting to trend up   is that a dramatic trend change there yeah 
it's just because they're on two different   scales so it doesn't really look quite as 
well you can see it when i take it off yeah   yeah they've accumulated like oh there we go 
yeah they've accumulated like uh 1.3 1.4 million   coins in the last you know three months and and 
what's interesting about this is it's not just um   it's not just whales like i think 
there's this big misconception that   um whales really push the market right like 
whales drive price up and they dump on retail   what's actually happened um you know since since 
may 19th is retail has been accumulating more   heavily than whales have which i think people 
would would be kind of surprised to hear that but   um retail has just been aggressively 
accumulating here let me pull this chart up   this is uh the supply held by retail um and 
then we can look at each each different um   specific entity by the amount of coins that 
they hold so we can look at you know entities   that hold one to ten bitcoins entities that 
hold point one to one bitcoin um and so   we can look at that on an individual basis and 
what you see is that you know these buyers in   the market never stop by like retail is just 
continuously buying and you have this big kind   of hockey stick upwards in the last couple months 
but when you combine all these together um you get   this and so this is a comparison of all of these 
entities combined um in comparison to the overall   supply so but what you're essentially looking 
at is the amount of circulating supply that is   held by retail so these are these are investors 
with less than 10 bitcoins so you know less than   whatever that is you know 400 uh 400 000 or we're 
at 39 000 so 390 000 dollars of bitcoin um and so   what you see is like over time this trends up and 
this is really healthy distribution of the network   um so this turns up well if you look at whales 
whales have actually when you filter out you know   etfs when you filter out um grayscale um 
you actually see that over time whales are   just distributing their coins so similarly 
to how this really just trends up over time   the way when you look at whales whales really just 
trends down over time so they're just continually   distributing the problem so you're saying it 
has a good genie coefficient the distribution   like you know the it's not just in the hands 
of a few over time it's getting distributed   to the hands of the many that's ultimately a 
very healthy sign for a network is that good   yes exactly that's exactly how i would put it um 
over time yeah the genie coefficient is getting   better because you have more healthy distribution 
um granted you know whales do hold it you know   a good portion of supply right they still hold 
about a third of supply or something like that   um but you know for given that bitcoin is 12 
years old and and you know the uh just the   way that that uh the the incentive system for 
bitcoin um is set up you know over time those   whales are going to distribute those those coins 
to um newer market participants that come in   and and so yeah i think i think we're on track to 
you know very healthy distribution of the network   um and and this blue line here this is the the 
entity growth of the network so think of this   as like the net user growth of the bitcoin network 
so yeah it's it's it's a very uh appealing looking   chart so this is subtracting the amount of um new 
entities coming on chain so every day looking at   um clusters of addresses that look like one 
person and subtracting the amount of new   entities from um the the entities that look like 
they're dormant so they don't hold any coins they   don't have any kind of activity it looks like you 
know they just left the network right so we're an   all-time high for this right now yes yes um and 
not only that but when you look at the kind of   incremental increase between um you know each each 
major peak here's 2011 you have this little baby   peak right here which is a huge deal at the time 
you had you know uh 1 500 users coming on the net   you know new users coming on the network a day at 
the peak of 2011 which was remarkable for bitcoin   at the time i mean when you go back here you have 
less than one user coming on the network a day   here we have about ten so you know bitcoin's come 
a long way um in in the you know the two 2013   peaks you went from 1500 oops you went from 1500 
to about uh 5 000 new market participants a day   and then when you get up to 2017 you go up to 
like 42 000 i think uh yeah 40 40 000 sorry the   fact that we're at an all-time high right now 
but the price just took a severe dip it does   kind of look like that i'm trying to find like 
where the price had a correction and we were at   an all-time high and it does kind of look like 
kind of early 2017 that one where there was like   a little bit low in the price but it was before 
the big major rally yeah i think like the major   thing to kind of take away from this is like each 
major peak you see this like really euphoric spike   and then kind of just like blow off top right like 
this huge spike and just comes right back down   um and then here as well but what we have now 
is like in general it's just been kind of this   slow grind higher um and that's that's really been 
different than anything that's happened if this is   if this is the peak um we haven't seen this 
drop off in new user growth that we have   each cycle and like you said we're actually making 
new highs um and so like when and the reason i   brought up the incremental increase in growth 
you have a large increase each time you know   of a magnitude and size and the fact that we've 
just crossed um into you know new all-time highs   well you know we crossed these all-time highs 
all the way down here you know we crossed   all-time highs from here all the way down here 
um and so we've just crossed the all-time highs   from 2017 so this is what just another metric 
that i look at to say the demand coming in to   buy bitcoin um is just that in itself is showing 
that you know this is not the this is not the peak   in in any sense that we've seen before 
damn i mean will it seems like this   this information is so valuable obviously the big 
hedge funds are looking at it but other than that   you willy woo our channel references this type of 
data how come more people aren't looking at this   and understanding that we're not going lower i 
mean nobody knows what the traders control the   short-term market but how can more people 
don't look at this data yeah i think it's   a great question um there's a lot of people 
that are skeptical of ancient analytics i   think just because it's so new um and you know 
she's so unique that a lot of people think of   it as like reading tea leaves or something and 
uh which i understand you know because anything   that's new people are naturally just going 
to be skeptical of but yeah i agree i think   more people should be looking at this analysis 
especially if they're involved in the market awesome well i'd love to uh bring it back unless 
you have another chart to share i'd love to bring   it back just on our faces and give an information 
yeah sure do you mind if i just show one last one   i think this one is important for users um so so 
this one is similar to what we're looking at the   beginning um this is a chart i created myself it's 
um looking at that that same the the liquid supply   and so what this is showing is it's looking at 
the broader trend of that and and so the way to   kind of think of this is like these are the waves 
of supply shock that kind of drive the market and   so this is a um 30-day change where before i was 
showing you the active um you know uh change of   you know every day you can see the amount of coins 
that are actually becoming liquid this is looking   at that like a broader sense so this is the 30-day 
change so you know the change between 30 days ago   and now in a liquid supply and then you're 
running an rsi which is a momentum indicator   you're running a 365 um time period rsi over that 
and so what you get is this broader kind of trend   in this um and so in the general sense the way 
you can think of this is like when you go from a   full capitulation right here right this would have 
been a sell signal we had this little mini kind of   like plateau before the initial bull run um a lot 
of coins became liquid and then you had this big   wave which you can see in the rsi of coins 
becoming a liquid and so here this would have   been a buy signal this is kind of what i think 
of as the wave that then the speculators ride up   on and then you have you know money coming in and 
like the market uh neutral way into grayscale and   stuff all that capital just kind of like drove the 
price up higher but it all started in my opinion   with this underlying supply shock um and so we had 
this that pushed us up here but then like i said   we had this capitulation in late may 
and and what what's interesting is that   while you've seen you know we kind of wiggled 
around here we've had a full move back to a buy   signal but it's much more aggressive than anything 
you've we you've seen when you go and look back in   bitcoin's history like we can go and look what is 
what is the buy signal we're looking at the rsi   yeah when the rsi goes into what people would 
traditionally recognize as an overbought   signal what this is just showing is like a 
massive amount of coins in the broader sense   are becoming a liquid um and so like just real 
quick like looking back at uh 2017 very similar   you had you know this drawdown and then um 
this this very big move up right this this   kind of wave of supply shock and then it moved 
back down right after uh we were talking about   that dead cat bounce on that on that dead cap 
bounce after 2017 um you know you saw a lot of   coins become a liquid and that that would have 
been uh come you know sell signal here um so   yeah i think like this is this is important to 
look at what's what's the broader trend of uh   you know accumulation and the coins becoming 
a liquid and so to me this is showing that   there's a very strong wave of supply shock in the 
market right now we've just entered that bicycle damn very revealing have you published this 
chart on your own or you just look at it and then   and then comment off of it yeah i haven't 
published it um like partially because i   can't do that through glass node um there's 
like no way to put it publicly i think they're   gonna implement that soon so you'll be able 
to do that and i will whenever i don't have   a problem you know some people can use it 
or back test it or whatever they want to do   but for now yeah i'll post it on twitter or i'll 
just throw it in my newsletter stuff like that   but anybody can create this if they have a 
glass node account interesting um let's let's   i want to talk about this stuff but let's 
take it back to our faces off screen share because you just i mean this was a lot 
of valuable information i know i'm not   talking about specific timing or or anything 
too specific but based on the on-chain data   what is your bitcoin um price prediction or 
just speculation in the next five months in 2021   yeah sure um so i think like in the short term 
it could be a little choppy like i said you know   we just had this big run up uh 10 straight green 
days i think like some short term mean reversion   perhaps we come down and kind of retest 
the middle of the range that we've been in   you know maybe we'll come back and re-test like 
36 to 37 and a half um but you know after that i   think we start to move back up in the you know the 
coming weeks i'm strongly bullish in in the coming   weeks to you know month um i i would suspect we'll 
have new all-time highs by the end of the year   uh i don't necessarily want to throw a number on 
there because then because then i'm kind of you   know kind of stuck to the number uh but i would 
just say highly bullish in in in you know the   coming weeks to you know maybe a month or two um 
based off of the data i'm looking at currently um   and then as far as price predictions for the for 
the end of the bull morn um you know i don't know   exactly but i i would say six figures i don't 
think six figures is out of the question at all   the end of the bull run you're saying 
it reaches a hundred thousand dollars   yeah i think that's that's reasonable yeah   very reasonable very reasonable my final 
question is uh you know thanks so much   links to all will's stuff uh is in the description 
below um do you have what are your thoughts on   uh ethereum and the rest of the cryptocurrency 
market yeah um so the way i look at this is like   i wouldn't necessarily call myself like a 
super bitcoin maxi right like i'm not going   to like curse you out for holding an altcoin 
um like like maybe some other people will but   i personally just only hold bitcoin and the reason 
is because and when i look at this space right   when i first come into space i think bitcoin 
is the most definitive bet and so i kind of i   like to look at you know what's what's the most 
um not definitive necessarily but kind of like   asymmetrical bet that that i feel comfortable 
putting you know majority of of my net worth on   and you know i'm not i'm not somebody where 
i'm going to come in and really like diversify   against a bunch of things i'm looking to bet on 
what what's the what's you know the the top horse   right now right and so to me uh bitcoin is you 
know in terms of a store value i i don't think any   any other project is going to be able to um you 
know uh a compete with um the network effect that   bitcoin already has but also um you know no other 
project is even close to the decentralization what where'd he go uh he left the chat right uh yeah he 
did did they did they shut him down dude are they trying to shut you down yeah yeah 
so sorry about that guys it's all good no problem   your power went out it i don't know what happened 
it was just like because it's not even storming   or anything it just i don't know it's weird guys 
i want to encourage your audience out there to   like the video leave a comment there's obviously 
something about these metrics that the man doesn't   want you to see so any engagement let's get this 
information out there but to bring it back we'll   i guess i guess we're just doing final thoughts 
i guess well he was finishing up he's saying   like his general thoughts on ethereum it sounded 
like he's just waiting watching it's really only   bitcoin that interests him at this moment 
um is that a fair assessment and then yeah   final thoughts yeah basically and then just a 
just a decentralization thing i i just think   um as of right now no other project really has 
the the decentralization and you know that bitcoin   does no it doesn't seem i totally agree with 
uh your point of view um it doesn't seem like   in a world where coinbase ipos where you know the 
regulators say we're taking a hands-off approach   it doesn't seem like decentralization um might 
not be that important for an investor's thesis   until it is important do you ever like do you 
think about that that you know yeah yeah for   sure and there's absolutely a ton of money that's 
coming in and coming into d5 like no question   about that um you know traditional finance is 
looking at this and saying a lot of these a lot of   these d5 projects are you know substitutes to you 
know just traditional finance in general and um   you know i think they come from like a vc 
perspective and they're saying you know there's a   lot here right kind of like the internet craze and 
they're saying some of these projects are going to   prevail so you know we'll just buy the top 10 
because i have no that you know i have no idea   what's going on here so i think that's literally 
you know the thesis of a lot of vcs that are   coming into space so yeah you know i i'm not 
saying by any means that that you know some of   these projects aren't going to go up in value and 
um you know that even you know there will be some   that are successful but i'm not smart enough to 
pick those so i'm just going to stick with bitcoin   which i see is the most definitive thing hell yeah 
awesome and um well i just want to wrap up thank   you again for sharing your charts i think this is 
awesome perspective i'd love for you to come on   sometime later this year and give us refresher an 
update on how this is playing out but just final   thoughts for the altcoin daily audience yeah sure 
first of all thanks guys uh so much for having me   on and let me ramble here for 30 45 minutes uh 
appreciate it and uh yeah this is super fun and   you know i'm happy to come on again i would just 
recommend to to the audience to look into on chain   still still so new you know there's still so much 
innovation to come in the space you know you just   get in there hop in on it on a spreadsheet um 
you know or even glass node has now you can   just compare your own metrics and create your 
own metrics you don't even have to um you know   have any kind of coding experience or anything 
like that so still so new and there's still you   know so much work to be done in that realm so 
you know just highly encourage people just to   hop in there and just kind of play around stuff 
and experiment with it but uh well yeah thanks   for having me on guys and uh sorry about cutting 
off there no problem thanks for coming on man

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