I’ve heard that Ethereum is going to $10,000. Have you also heard it? Let's check here on YouTube Ethereum to $10,000 Ah good, it’s not clickbait. Ethereum to $10,000 – What you MUST know Ethereum about to explode to $10,000! Huge news! The TRUTH about $10,000 Ethereum We even get the truth, finally. And I'm the guy who holds the cto.eth handle, so that’s really great news for me. Yes! Oh and then we have this report on the Internet, which also talks about $10,000 Ethereum. So both these clever analysts with their excel sheets and formulas and stuff and these YouTube creators have predicted $10,000. So it's bound to happen right? It's the WRONG approach guys. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong. If you think you can go on the Internet and find "price predictions", then you just mortgage the house and wait for the prophecy to come true, you're not going to be successful in the long run guys.
But there is one thing you got to understand. Trying to predict tech markets is a beginner approach. Let’s go back to the CTO Larsson HQ and I’ll show you something else that you can do instead. First, I'm not criticizing those creators. You have to win the click first,
then say your message. It's just how the YouTube platform works.
Much of that content is good. And I've also made a video called "Ethereum to $2,000" with the stupid face and everything, which for some reason
makes people want to click the video. I made that when Ethereum was at $400 something.
Then it reached $2,000. Did I predict that? Did I carefully look into my secret math, with my Larsson Line indicator and the code on GitHub, and meditated and came up with the number $2,000? No.
I didn't. If you go back and watch that video, I'll
link it later, you will learn what I did. I just observed what actually happened. Because as it turns out, it's a lot easier to analyze the present than to predict the future. So unlike all the gurus who now popped
up after Ethereum has already pumped to $2,000, maybe I'm on to something if I managed to enter there at $175, Right? And I'm telling you this guys: Asking if Ethereum will go to $10,000 or not,
is already the wrong question. It’s too simplistic. They’re just guessing. Why is that the wrong question? Because of this. If we look at the Ethereum vs Bitcoin chart we find something potentially shocking. In 5 years, from March 2016 until now in April 2021, the price hasn't moved. At all. It's exactly the same in BTC terms. 5 years.
While in USD terms, both of them
have moved in gigantic amounts, ETH from 15 dollars to 2000. So as you see, it's much easier to see
what is going on if we are looking at the comparably small movements relative to
Bitcoin, which is leading the way in this market. Or put differently, instead of trying to guess a
dollar figure for Ethereum, break that molecule down into its two atoms: 1. What is Bitcoin doing 2. What is Ethereum doing relative to Bitcoin Then there is a 3rd question. But first, what is Ethereum? Really. Well, anyone can deploy a smart contract
which then runs on this crazy world computer that can’t be shut down even if someone wants. It’s a contract which will be executed no matter what Even if one party changes their mind. Even if someone doesn’t like it. Even if the government would ban it, it can no longer be shut down. In a way, it’s pretty close
to science fiction already. But I think in a good way. It’s a machine that ensures that
promises will be kept. And it’s easily accessible for everyone. Let me show you. You go here. Create a new file and you can type code.
OK. Compile. Deploy. And we test calling this function. Hello, World! And it worked. Then you just switch to the live main net. And if I press deploy here, my program would go online accessible to the whole world, forever. The use cases are real. They are huge. They will fundamentally change society. Decentralized finance. One guy could program an exchange with an automated market maker, which suddenly challenges the
world’s centralized exchanges. In 2017 ownership was being issued
which previously was a HUGE project requiring an investment bank to manage. Suddenly one teenager could do it
himself from his mom’s basement. That was the ICO boom and bust. While it wasn’t compliant to hundred-year old
regulation, there were a lot of scams, it worked technically.
It's how most of the biggest crypto projects like Binance, like Cardano, like even
Ethereum itself were *funded. We had the NFT’s. Season 1 with Crypto Kitties and Season 2 now with guys like Gary Vaynerchuk and $69 million NFTs We have peer to peer lending, you can borrow money without any centralized bank There are hundreds, there are
thousands of real use cases. The Ethereum team and Vitalik
planned for these use cases from the start. Look here in the Whitepaper version from 2014. Applications
financial applications, powerful ways of managing and entering into smart
contracts using their money. sub-currencies, financial derivatives, hedging
contracts, savings contracts, wills, and even employment contracts. semi-financial applications, applications such as online
voting and decentralized governance that are not financial at all. Very impressive! One of the greatest minds of our generation created one of the biggest
innovations in history. Of course not alone, it was a team work,
but he played a key role and still do. Then in fairness, Ethereum which created it all
should get to reap the rewards right? Having the idea and being first helps
to build the ecosystem, the community. Yes. But. The world doesn't work like that. Ericsson, where I worked before, pretty much created the Mobile Network systems. That didn't prevent our Chinese competitors from
copying it, down to the cable labels in Swedish.
But the way that Ericsson then stayed relevant,
and has stayed relevant for 140 years straight, is to qualify every day. You have to be the best now,
not only yesterday. To win over competition,
we need to offer a better product today. You can't live on old achievements. You have to be relevant in the present. No one cares who invented it. So that’s the 3rd question to ask: Is Ethereum the best solution,
all things considered, ecosystem, installed base of users and services,
performance and cost, today and forward, not backward. No one cares who invented it. If it is, Ethereum will continue
to fulfill those use cases because those use cases are real, no doubt. If it is not, another project will
fulfill those use cases in the end. Maybe it’s BSC, maybe another project. Let’s try to answer the 3 questions,
based on what we know today: 1.
What is Bitcoin doing This video won't get many views because most people want to believe in "price predictions"
and predicting the future basically a fortune teller,
someone else telling them what to do. So if you are watching here,
you are already ahead of the majority. If you feel this channel deserves more subs, please take 1 second to
press the like and subscribe and bell button right now. It matters a lot more than you might think. Press it. Thank you. Bitcoin remains in an uptrend. Trends are in every instance
more likely to continue than to reverse. If this plays out like the previous 3 parabolas,
there could be a lot more rocket fuel left.
That’s the first indicator that
we will track going forward. 2. What is Ethereum doing relative to Bitcoin What I will do is that as long as this 0.03 holds,
I will hold my Ethereum. Technically, I hold Ethereum
price tracking certificates in ISK through my bank, but that’s a technicality. If this just goes back to
All-Time High, that’s 0.15. For clarity, this is not advice to you. I’m not a financial advisor. Read
the disclaimer below. My situation is that I can afford this
going to zero tomorrow because Vitalik accidentally misspelled a variable in the Ethereum code, everything exploded and never recovered. Now to the 3rd Question Is Ethereum the best today to
fulfill those use cases? I look at this from 5 dimensions: Ecosystem size, Cost, Performance USP, that means Unique Selling Point and decentralization.
Because if it’s not decentralized, you could as well run this on a database on
Amazon Web Services at a fraction of the cost. Most of year 2020 Ethereum had almost monopoly
in terms of ecosystem size. There were Tron and BSV and a few
others that tried to challenge, but in reality didn’t get much traction. Ethereum was regarded fairly low cost
and decent performance, as people mostly compared it with Bitcoin. And Ethereum had a USP – a Unique Selling Point: Uniswap – groundbreaking innovation. Separate video. Then came 2021 How quickly a large share of transactions moved over to BSC, Binance Smart Chain. BSC has today almost double the
number of transactions of ETH.
Not in terms of money volume, but
in number of transactions. Also, Ethereum got a lot more expensive, both in terms of number
Ethereum needed to transact and the price of each Ethereum While BSC became a faster and cheaper real alternative at 1/100th of the cost. If you haven’t seen my BNB/BSC
video, I’ll link it here. The USP kind of disappeared because Pancakeswap and others
could basically just fork Uniswap. BSC is definitely not decentralized today, but turns out that people cared
more about permissionless aspect than how decentralized it was and still used it. Now what will happen in the 2nd half of 2021? Well, the ecosystem is still there for Ethereum. Optimism, the Layer 2 solution,
is scheduled for release in July, Got delayed but I still think it will come. These Layer 2 solutions will solve some of the Cost and Performance problems.
The USP could come back because version 3 of Uniswap changed the license. It is now a business license meaning PancakeSwap & co cannot
just go to GitHub and type fork. It will now be necessary to copy the
Idea, instead of copying the code How hard will that be? I don’t know yet, but that will be key to monitor! Because the v3 innovation of Uniswap is huge. The better capital efficiency
for liquidity providers will translate into less slippage for traders. That means each time we place a big trade potentially, the price won’t
move so much in the wrong direction So for bigger trading volumes
this will matter a lot.
This can shift the power balance between centralized and decentralized exchanges – forever. Ethereum is still decentralized,
and BSC is not really as of today. Now let’s make a few price scenarios: In the first scenario, let's
assume that Bitcoin goes to 200 k and Ethereum takes back the leadership
and goes to 0.15 on this chart. The $10,000 from the beginning of
the video was way too conservative. In this scenario ETH becomes worth 30,000 dollars each.
The $10k scenario from these YouTubers could
well play out, even if Ethereum doesn’t move much Say that Bitcoin goes to 200 k
and ETH just moves a little bit to say 0.05. That’s 10,000 dollars. Another scenario. Let’s say Bitcoin still goes to 200k
but Ethereum loses the leadership, falls through so goes from .03 to .01. Then price will stay around current levels,
maybe surprisingly, at around $2,000. Next scenario, say that
Bitcoin hovers here at $58,000 and there is no real conclusion on
the Ethereum vs Ethereum killers’ leadership. Say that BSC and Ethereum get similar
traction and market kind-of hesitates.
Then ETH could remain in this
wait and see mode at .03. Then current valuation of 1800 dollars stays. Now let’s do another scenario. Let’s say that Bitcoin backs up to 30,000 which it could do, and still be in a bull
market, still hold the parabolic advance And let’s say that Ethereum is doing ok-ish, but maybe people get more finicky then about cost and Optimism Layer 2 isn’t out yet
so maybe ETH dips to .02.
Again, this is a very realistic scenario. Then we would see 600 dollars ETH,
even though Ethereum is still doing well. Then let’s do one bad scenario also. Let’s say that Bitcoin backs up to 30k and Ethereum loses its leadership and dips to .01. That’s 300 dollars Ethereum. So as you see, we got a range here from 300 dollars
to 30,000 dollars Ethereum. That’s why you need to look at these underlying indicators, to have any chance to play this right. And let me make this clear: I love Ethereum! I wish for it to succeed. Like, subscribe, bell, comment your thoughts and YOUR opinions and watch the next video. Thank you. Tack! CTO Larsson out! Hej då!.