Ethereum ROCKETS to $3500 (Top Market Expert Explains)

if we took the log of the price divided by 1274 and set it to 1.03 in the short term then that means that the evaluation could theoretically go to over 3 000 and still maintain the integrity of the idea that the extension from the 20 weeks should diminish each cycle now i don't i'm not saying that a theorem is about to go to 3 500 right i'm not saying that but i'm saying that it could do that and it still would maintain the integrity of this model bit swap is the hottest new way to trade tokens calling all the top decentralized exchanges bitswap gets you the very best price and value for your trades bitswap is changing the game try it now at bitswapdex.io welcome to bitboy crypto the largest crypto channel in all the interwebs my name is ben every day on this channel i show you how to make money in cryptocurrency if you like money and crypto make sure to hit the subscribe button for your chance to win a full bitcoin details down below in today's video i brought on one of the hottest and most respected youtubers in the game with a great name benjamin cowan thought one bin was enough wait until you see two of them together ben has a unique way of presenting charts and information that's based upon data science you know we love science on the channel today we sat down to discuss the prospects of this bull market and just how much further bitcoin can run in addition we also take a look at ethereum's prospects to hit 3 500 in the future all right guys let's go ahead and jump in hey guys welcome to the channel today i'm very honored to be joined by one of the hottest youtubers out there uh benjamin cowan he has done some really great technical analysis videos and uh recently he's been talking a little bit about ethereum uh so welcome to the channel if you could just tell everybody just a little bit uh about yourself yeah so so thanks for having me on my name's ben i started a youtube channel back in in 2019 and i mostly focus on long-term analysis macro trends in the market and more i would say it's more akin to data science as opposed to maybe like your traditional ta um and so that's sort of what my channel is about and we make we mainly talk about bitcoin ethereum link ada and dot is is probably 99 of what i talk about on my channel well that's like all of my biggest holdings so already sounds good to me uh and guys before we really get into the video here you guys make sure i'm gonna put the link to his youtube channel down below in the video description make sure you guys head on over there and subscribe to his channel show him some love you know we love bringing on ta guys and hey data science guys on to the uh show so all right ben let's let's dice it up let's see what you got kind of what are you thinking in terms of uh what's going on with the the larger uh time frames here for crypto yeah so i think the though i have this model where this looks like the chart for bitcoin but actually it's the total cryptocurrency market capitalization chart and what we notice is that while there are phases where we have expansion expansions in the in the asset class and then contractions we do generally trend higher right and and the red line is more or less our fair value fit to the total cryptocurrency market capitalization so what this means is if we're under it then we're historically undervalued and this would be our you know accumulation phase right our accumulation phase i know you are making a lot of videos during the accumulation phase um as well and and so this is where the real money is made right bull markets bull markets make you money bear markets make you rich because when you when you get in during the bear market you reap the rewards of the bull market later on uh rather than chasing the pump right you already have your positions so when it's at the red line it's at the fair valuation and when it's above it then we're historically overvalued but that doesn't mean that we have to immediately come back down we could stay overvalued for years before coming back down uh potentially and and so this is the chart where i just like to show people because i think it puts everything into perspective as to where we currently are within the cycle we know that things are are very heated right now but if history is any indication like 2017 2016 we could stay overvalued for years before ultimately coming back down uh back down to earth for a little while so again this is the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and one thing to consider the peaks are are getting they're they're getting less and less extended from the fair value each cycle right so this one went well above the upper green line this one went basically right to it or right above it and this one dropped right below it so the idea is well it seems like it's possible this cycle for us to go up several more trillion dollars from where we currently are in terms of the grand scheme of the market cycle now that doesn't mean it has to happen this year i mean i know a lot of people think it will and it could right we could go up to to those levels this year uh but the main thing is whenever it does happen it seems like it would be theoretically possible for us to to move up several trillion more dollars and the way to best visualize this i think is if we take the percent difference between the market cap and the fair value this is the chart you get okay what do you so what do you notice yeah there's a macro downtrend yeah a downtrend for sure yeah and that doesn't mean that you can't make a lot of money because i mean if you're in crypto now you're doing something wrong if you're not making a lot of money right i mean if you just get up if you just get a position and hold it right now you should be doing relatively well um well i mean of course short term is hard to say but regardless what you notice is that we're generally decreasing in terms of the extension from the fair value right so what i would be looking for is to say you know i don't know if we're going to go straight up there this year i mean at this rate right if we keep going up at this rate we'll get there in no time right you give it a few more months and we'll be there or you know and this would be say the bullish scenario right straight up to the top a bearish scenario which i don't think is going to happen will be straight back down um and then there's other scenarios as well and the the main thing i want to take from this chart is to to talk about the fact that there's a lot of similarities between this market cycle and two market cycles ago in terms of interest cycle volatility right we came down to the bottom right here i don't know it had a little circle there but we came down to the bottom back up to a little overvaluation region this was our 2019 impulsive move that no one really believed up it's not fake yeah everyone was sort of in disbelief right yeah and then we came back down and then back up again just to poke our head above the fair value and then our final capitulation before blasting off and so that's where we currently are and that you know and that blue the the blue not to interrupt you there uh even though i just did interrupt you uh the blue circle right there followed by the red circle that would have been the pandemic crash correct exactly exactly yeah it's sort of you know when everyone was hoping that it was about to just go up it took everyone by surprise and then everyone woke up and their portfolios were down 60 you know um and so there's a lot of new money today that don't think that's ever theoretically possible again but i i have news for them a day of reckoning will come at some point in the future i don't know what it's going to be but it will come at some point um but anyways what you notice about this chart is well if this part of the accumulation phase was similar to two cycles ago what do you notice what happened next after that cycle we had a double peak cycle right and so that's the thing is i don't really know if this is going to be a double peak cycle or not i mean you know i think to some degree every market cycle will have its own sort of characteristics right and and be remembered have its own personality but if we did do something like that we could have a double peak cycle where we maybe we go into this major move there or maybe we would go up uh you know 50 more or something and then maybe we didn't have a pull back and then ultimately go up to the to the market cycle time i think the key thing to take from this chart whether you believe in a shortening cycle a lengthening cycle a four-year cycle is that i think time is on our side right i mean it looks like time is on our side it's just a matter of how long it takes us to get there well i would say you know what what's really interesting is is you you would think that a hundred thousand dollars is going to be that mark where we get that pull back right like 100 dollars is such an unbelievable number for bitcoin that there will be and think about what level of profit people that got in before the bear market will be out they'll be the 10x for a lot of people that got in you know around ten thousand dollars or more and i think that's a really good target to look at a lot of people taking profits and we might have something similarly to 2013 and 2014.

Um i would definitely be a bigger fan of the 2017 model that's just up the whole time that would be great um instead of having the two distinct cycles and if you were go back to the other chart that we were looking at um previous to this one the one that was right there uh so kind of what i'm looking at there is if we were to top to touch the top of the the green dotted line there that would put a 10 trillion dollar market cap which would put bitcoin above 500 000 per coin i think that most of us probably agree that that's not going to happen that it is going to be somewhere closer probably to the three to four hundred thousand dollar range so i think all everything you're saying makes perfect sense with a lot of stuff that uh you know we've talked about on the channel which is you know maybe somewhere around a 322 thousand dollar bitcoin for this cycle we could have a blow off top that goes up higher but if this is in line and we're seeing a continued downtrend then i think about three to four hundred thousand dollars would be probably about a good target based on what we're looking at here well one thing to consider too though again is this is the total crypto market cap not just bitcoin all right yeah that's right you're correct so yeah yeah so even if even if this did and also remember too that the extension from the fair value is getting lower and lower so this time we might not even make it to the green line right yeah because last time we barely made it there the time before we made it above it and the time before that we were well above it so i would agree i think 500 000 bitcoin this market cycle is is a dream that's not gonna happen yeah like maybe next cycle i think next cycle there's a much higher probability this cycle i don't see 500 000 bitcoin um and and so yeah like i don't i don't necessarily know that it will the entire market cap will go to 10 trillion i think it could go to 10 trillion the longer it takes us to get there right like if the cycle is extended we have more momentum over a longer period of time i could see the entire asset class going to 10 20 but we also know that if bitcoin did go or if we did have a major you know uh market cycle that had this amazing blow off top if we had a major altcoin season akin to 2017 then we know the bitcoin dominance could drop down to a 30 40 level now of course we have institutional investors today that might have something to say about that and so there could be some differences in terms of where the dominance goes but yeah just remember this is a total crypto market cap not just uh yeah well we could we could also see some some offsetting of the bitcoin profits you know kind of keeping the overall market capitalization around the same numbers so bitcoin goes way up it goes let's say seven eight trillion dollars and then people take profits out of it and then just pile it into other projects the bitcoin dominance level goes down but the overall market cap could stay relatively similar right we saw that in 2017 right the bitcoin's peak happened about a month before ethereum's peak exactly bitcoin was like december 17th and ethereums was january 13th so yeah like that and that's how the dominance can come down so far is that people finally take their profits out of bitcoin and go gamble it on on on some other other coins yeah well and i think i do want to touch on ethereum with you here in just a minute but i think it's a really important point you know i had michael saylor on my uh channel for an interview we like michael saylor he's a you know great bitcoin hero uh he believes that we're not going to see the traditional bitcoin cycle that you know we're going to break out of this and the price of bitcoin is going to go up forever and you know he sounds very similar to someone who's only been in bitcoin for a year so for those of us who have been in this market for a long time we've been we've seen multiple cycles the thing to keep in mind is we all pretty much say the same thing like anyone who has been in this market for multiple cycles we believe there will be a blow off top at some point there will be a bear market and i just ask everybody to keep that in mind and during the euphoria that happens during these market cycles people tend to think like oh i'm just going to jump in and make money forever but that's not the way the markets work right i mean i i mean i i think that this cycle will be i mean i know a lot of people think like i've seen december 2021 thrown around a lot right a lot of people think that which means there's probably a good chance that's not what happens yeah um you know but i mean you'll leak it out if it is a double peak cycle like 2013 maybe we have a peak soon and then we we go into a cool down phase for a while and then and then go on another run up later on um but yeah eventually there will there will be another bear market that's just the way the cycles work i mean people are going to take profits and at the end of the day you know i know you know you and i and a lot of other people that watch the show like the idea of bitcoin right you know but there are people that just want to make money and if they're up 30 40 x like whatever they're gonna they're going to take their profits and and and look the other way like and then we'll just go on to something else until the market's calmed down again so yeah exactly i mean it's like i tell everybody you know crypto is about more than moons and lambos we like moons and we like lambos but you know there is a movement behind it but the vast majority of people who come into the space they don't ever get that deep with it so they do just really look at the money and you know the institutions are not looking at uh decentralized internet and thinking like oh that sounds great um so yeah so let's check out ethereum because it's been on a little bit of a run uh you know recently and we're trying to figure out is it gonna break up and break out and you had done a video where you talked about um you know i think you did a really good job putting everything into perspective with ethereum like i always have to keep reminding people like ethereum has outperformed bitcoin this year so far so um while the last you know few weeks have not been greater the last month's not been great um you know it's still not in a bad spot so what are the charts kind of telling us right now for uh ethereum yeah so ethereum sort of goes to these phases against bitcoin where when it's when it's above this like so i have this thing called the bull market support band i normally just use it for bitcoin but i think it's actually pretty prevalent for a lot of other crypto pairs so basically it's just a combination of the 20 week sma and the 21 week ema and i'm sure you're familiar with those it's just a combination of both of those so when we're whenever we're above it everyone's super bullish on ethereum and it's like you know ethereum's the best thing since sliced bread and then whenever we're below it everyone's super bearish and you know everyone says ethereum is dead and that you know all these other projects are going to take it over now i would agree that a lot of all coin projects will have higher rois than ethereum and that's why i invest in other projects but i think ethereum is a safer long-term play and you all and again like it's riskier right i mean all coins are riskier so if you if you realize a higher return well then you paid for that return with more units of risk more volatility because if we do get that bear market a lot of these all coins will bleed more than ethereum so what i'm looking at with the theorem right now is we're doing more or less the same thing that we keep doing right this little roller coaster back and forth back and forth and this is a logarithmic scale this is where i basically had on my channel for like a year and a half saying this is our general reaccumulation phase of the ether bitcoin valuation and if you look at say the linear scale you know you can generally see we're more or less just moving up it um fairly systematically but i think what's more important is is also looking at the i mean i i think the bitcoin valuation of ethereum is the most important but also looking at its usb valuation because that is what a lot of people care about uh despite the fact that i think bitcoin its bitcoin valuation should be considered more but one of the things you can look at is our you know our extension from the 20-week moving average right so this this line you see here the red line is the 20-week moving average right and if we take the extension from the 20-week moving average we get something that looks like this now the best way to understand this chart though is to go look at ethereum's big brother bitcoin and how does bitcoin's chart look for this and that way we can understand what this chart's doing if you go look at bitcoin you can see that everyone says this everyone says this time is different but the extension from the 20-week moving average for bitcoin has actually always diminished each cycle so far right you do not see and again you do not see from any cycle like our this is our 2011 cycle and we had 2013 we had a double peak cycle here and then 2017 and then so far here so far the extension from the 20 week moving average for bitcoin has diminished each cycle now this will break eventually because this chart right here is again it's just the natural log of the price over the 20-week moving average so that's that's the math you only get with benjamin cowan yeah i can't i don't even know what that means so basically but to give you an idea right if the natural law the natural log of one is zero right so if the price were the 20-week moving average then it basically this this chart would come back to be to be zero so anything below this line at zero if i can draw it that's basically 0.01 so anything below that line colored and red we're below the 20 week anything above it we're above the 20 week but naturally this this trend has to break eventually otherwise it would imply eventually we always are below the 20th moving hours so it will break eventually but what do we know we see diminished diminished um uh extension from the 20-week moving average to go back and look at ethereum we don't really have a whole we don't really have a whole lot to measure yeah but if we just say okay well let's suppose that we have diminished extension from the 20-week moving average and we're generally increasing here right we're generally moving up um i mean and so the idea is well we could still go all the way up here and still maintain this model in terms of diminished extension from the 20-week moving average so to give you just a brief extrapolation a very dubious extrapolation right but let's suppose that we went up to evaluation a point of one like let's just say like 1.03 right so this this would be 1.03 but remember this is with respect to the 20-week moving average so we need to know what the 20-week moving average is it's currently 12.73 so if or 1274.

So if we took the log of the price divided by 1274 and set it to 1.03 in the short term then that means that the evaluation could theoretically go to over three thousand dollars and still maintain the integrity of the idea that the extension from the 20 weeks should diminish each cycle now i don't i'm not saying that a theon's about to go to 3 500 right i'm not saying that but i'm saying that it could do that and it still would maintain the integrity of this model yeah well that would be a great easter pump as we say on our channel yeah so yeah will we be at 3 500 by valentine's day of 2022.

That's the question uh by valentine's day 2022. well i think the hard part is is is knowing you know i think predicting like predicting moves in the short term is very hard to do right and and i've done that before you know any time i do a short-term price prediction video i i i say hey this is very dubious because we know how quickly things can change um and i think everyone sort of everyone sort of goes through that at some point um and and i so yeah i do think it could theoretically be there um at the same time i think if we go back to that you know that macro chart of but the long line right like it depends on where we are in the cycle right if the bear market is hit and then we're going down then everyone's going to be super bearish if we're still in the bull market the 3 500 ethereum seems a lot more realistic yeah of course i think it'll depend on how how this year plays out right did he go straight to the top of that line and go to an extension from the fair value of a thousand percent which would put us close to you know seven or eight trillion dollars in terms of the entire market cap or do we cool off for say six months and then continue higher later on so i i mean yeah i would say it's definitely possible and i think by the end of this cycle for me the end of the cycle is probably not going to be this year if it if it happens then i'll be the first to say hey the model shows this is the end right but if it's not then i do think ethereum can trend much higher than than where it is today and probably well above three to four thousand dollars yeah but certainly that might take it but it but it could take a couple more years right it could take a couple more years is my thinking on that like it could take a couple years well here here's been my general thinking on things i i will believe things are changed and broken when they are changed and broken and you know we look at a lot on my channel at the golden bull ratio that shows the percentage of the bull runs is a 51 to 49 ratio between the bottom of the market and the having and then the having and the top of the market traditionally that model is held up that would put the end of the bitcoin bull run uh september uh 28th of 2021 so this year and then of course that would push the altcoin bonanza you know up close to halloween and so i'm not a believer in a longer cycle i think it's gonna hit it right on the head um but you know i think that where i think things can be different are because of all the institutional buying i think there's a lot of data to support uh that maybe we won't get as deep of a bear market but i think the time frame will probably still be around the same i think we might see 65 drop instead of 85 drop for bitcoin i would agree that we're probably yeah like i think volatility is diminishing not only to the upside but also to the downside as well uh especially with institutional money but this is just the chart to show from from uh market cycle bottom uh to just show where we currently are so right now right now i would agree i mean it appears that we're right on track with the last cycle uh but we also know that that things can change and so we'll i think we'll just have to take it one step at a time right now we are actually ahead of schedule compared to the last cycle if you see as measured from market cycle bottom right as measured for market cycle bottom we're ahead of schedule uh and so i think we'll just have to see if this if this continues to go up right if we continue moving up over the next few months and a theater and bitcoin's going to six figures then i would agree with you that you know we're probably gonna we're probably not gonna have um one that like lasts if we go to 150 000 in three four months or something that i would agree like it's not going to take as long as i initially thought but if things cool down for a while then we know how quickly sentiment in the market can change as well well i think i think the one thing that's different why it doesn't surprise me at all that we're ahead of schedule is obviously the pandemic the stimulus money the trillions of dollars getting printed i mean i i think that by the end of this year we're gonna print nine trillion dollars and uh that's gonna be that's gonna be insane so um that that is the reason why i think that we could get there a little bit faster and then what i can also see is stock market crash at some point during the cycle maybe in september uh maybe the fed comes out and announces that they're going to make drastic changes to the rates or they're not going to protect the bonds market uh or something like that and then we could see a dramatic fall at the end of this year uh for that so um definitely interesting stuff though a hundred percent uh these are some charts i've never even seen so i definitely appreciate you coming on the channel uh and sharing these uh any any last thoughts for today yeah i think that i think that basically wraps it up i think the best thing that people could probably do is just you know like establish their positions and and remember time is on our side to a huge degree i think time is on our side and if we get short-term dips take a step back and look at the bigger picture and kind of see where we are within the grand scheme of the market cycle and recognize that time is on our side yeah absolutely and guys also make sure go over to ben's channel make sure you hit subscribe we'll have the link down uh below and if you guys want us to have him back on the channel again down the road make sure to drop those down in the comments below thank you so much for coming on today guys that's all i got be blessed [Music] you [Music]

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