Ethereum Analysis: BEST Chance to Hit $40k This Cycle?

actually ben this is a great example right now of of bitcoin is below its prior all-time high but ethereum's pushing to a new all-time high um and so it just shows you that they don't have to coincide with each other and i mean bitcoin's still what like twenty percent below its power alpine high and if theorem's pushing to 2800 potentially here uh in the not so distant future so this is yeah clear evidence that what you said is correct is you know they don't they don't move in tandem and actually this is the perfect chart to show that because this is not the ether usb valuation it's the ether bitcoin valuation bitswap is the hottest new way to trade tokens crawling all the top decentralized exchanges bizwa will get you the very best price and value for your trades bitswap is changing the game try it now at welcome to bitboy crypto the largest crypto channel on all the interwebs my name is ben everyday on this channel i show you how to make money in cryptocurrency if you like money and crypto make sure to hit the subscribe button guys today i brought on a very special guest benjamin cowan to discuss not only the market cycles but ethereum what are the prospects is it realistic or not that ethereum could hit 40k in this cycle could bitcoin hit 500 000 in this cycle so we cover all those topics and get benjamin's analysis on what is happening in the markets in the long term and for this cycle you're definitely not going to want to miss it let's go ahead and jump into the interview all right guys today i'm very happy to be joined by a great friend of the channel somebody that i watch i think is phenomenal uh benjamin cowan welcome to the show thanks for being back y'all were here a few weeks ago and it's a pleasure to be back on your show again yeah absolutely i love what you do i think a lot of the uh analysis you do is is very unique right now ethereum is ripping so let's just you know let's let's not dice words here let's get right into ethereum show us what you're looking at on some of your charts and some of your analysis are we at a top for either we looking at more upside so yeah and in the grand scheme of this cycle i feel like ethereum still has a lot of upside to go and and there's a few different ways we can look at that of course but the best way in my opinion is looking at how it's performing against bitcoin okay and i think a lot of times people overlook this very critical valuation because you want to know how is it performing against the number one right how's it performing against number one and what's interesting is despite the fact that ethereum has been on this roller coaster against bitcoin basically since 2019 the general direction remains upwards right the general direction remains up and what's also interesting though is we are nowhere close nowhere close to the levels that we reached back in 2017 or 2018 but there is there is a nuance to this that i want to make clear the first thing we can note is that in order to get to say the weekly close that we reached in january of 2018 ethereum would need to go up another 113 against bitcoin and if we extended that to the top of the wick a hundred and another 150 percent almost and if if we were looking at say back in the summer of 2017 that would actually correspond to closer to over 200 okay so about 208 percent return from the ethereum bitcoin valuation would get you to the prior all-time high however there is a nuance to this type analysis that we have to take that we have to keep keep in mind and that is the supply of ethereum you know the supply is not constant okay so it might not it might not necessarily be the fairest comparison to measure the price of ethereum directly to the price of bitcoin when talking about theoretical market cycle tops because we know the supply is not constant what might be better is measuring the the etherium market cap divided by the bitcoin market cap right so that way we're not actually we don't care about the price we care about the market capitalization and and from this measurement we still have a long way to go right we still have a long way to go even from this measurement but it's not quite as much okay so to get to the theoretical or to get to the prior all-time high of the ethereum bitcoin market capitalization ratio we still have 134 percent to go which again is still substantial still substantial and it's not quite as high as it would be say going to the exact price comparison but i think this is an important distinction to make because a lot of people might not always consider what the supply is of the cryptocurrency and you know when you're when you're getting into those crazy fomo times you know it's really hard to predict how how high things will go anyways but it might be somewhat it might be somewhat useful to to at least compare the market capitalization um and and realize that even with that it still seems like we have a long way to go and you know you might you might look at 134 percent and say well does that mean that you know ethereum's usd valuation is capped at another 134 percent and i would say absolutely not because we we know it's a function of what bitcoin's value is and i certainly think that bitcoin will go higher than 64 000 in the grand scheme of this market cycle so you know it always goes back to what bitcoin's valuation is and bitcoin's valuation is not invariant so again 140 just to get to the prior all-time high of the ethereum bitcoin market cap valuation and that still depends on bitcoin's valuation which i think still has a ways to go in and of itself yeah i think obviously we're not near the top of the market um but what i want to say here is if you remember when bitcoin cash launched when bitcoin cash launched it went insane on some exchanges it went all the way up to 8 000 within the first hour that it launched on coinbase and i look if you look at bitcoin cash and you look at the charts and you look at its previous all-time high which a lot of places put around um i think five thousand dollars or six thousand dollars but on some exchanges it's much higher it was an anomaly it was just something that happened that you can't really like the chart itself can't really bake that anomaly in and i feel the same way when i look at the ethereum chart when i look at that first run-up it had to where it got all the way up to where one ethereum was basically 15 of one bitcoin the value of one ethereum versus one bitcoin when you look at that that was i believe the run-up to when it got put on coinbase is only the second coin on coinbase there will never have anything again that will be the second coin on coinbase right there was coinbase was already the number one exchange in the united states and people finally from bitcoin had an option and i feel like that was an anomaly in the charts i look more at the 2018 uh price around 10 percent as actually kind of where i think the ceiling is and i don't necessarily know if it's gonna bust through that again my expectation is that we don't exceed about eight percent um or .08 btc for this run for ethereum but even at point zero eight we could still depending on how big bitcoin goes depending on how high it goes looking at you know ethereum around twenty thousand to thirty thousand dollars yeah i actually that's a really good point um you know one of the things i've discussed before is the idea that you know maybe we're not going to keep putting in new all-time highs for the ethereum bitcoin valuation what if it's just sort of converging to whatever that fair value is over over the long haul and then over here it really overshot it here it went way below it and we're sort of just slowly converging to that value i agree with you i i honestly don't think ethereum will make it to 2.15 um i i think that would be a bit a bit too far-fetched uh but at the same time i i think the the the most the best way for people to approach uh ethereum is to say you know what yeah it seems like .08 is theoretically possible maybe a little bit higher and that's not to say that it can't go higher but at that point you need to be exceedingly cautious right because even though even though people look at this and say hey it went to 0.1 or 0.15 it was only there for a very short period of time and and very few people would have actually had a chance to sell at those levels so we have to look at the fact that hey we actually spent barely any time at those levels we we also barely spent any time at point one um exactly and you know a lot of people spend their entire lives trying to figure out if they had bought at the bottom and sold at the top what their roi would have been but who actually is able to do that you know yeah well a time traveler that's basically right but you know let me know what you think about this because i think this is something that people have to take into consideration too is that if if let's say bitcoin gets to 10 or let's say ethereum gets to 10 of the price of bitcoin and let's say bitcoin peaks out at 360 000 that that number right there would exactly match the last bull cycle where at 18 x its previous all-time high exact 17.8 x but close enough okay but what people don't factor in is when ethereum peaks against bitcoin bitcoin is not going to be at its peak so it's not actually like if we say it's gonna get 10 the price of bitcoin and bitcoin goes all the way to 400 000 that doesn't mean that ethereum is going to peak at 40 000 they're not going to peak at the same time so like i guess you know it seemed like you seem to agree with that yeah yeah i think we said we talked about a little bit about last time like basically i you know back in 2017 bitcoin peaked on december 17th and ethereum peaked on january 13th so it's about a month difference um and actually i believe you know uh correct me if i'm wrong but but i i believe that by the time ethereum hit its peak you know bitcoin was at like 14 000 or 17 it wasn't anywhere close yeah i think it was around 14.

It wasn't anywhere close to so that's something that's something else you have to consider i mean i i'm a little bit more conservative on the on the price prediction for bitcoin like i feel like you know three to four hundred k might be a little bit uh i mean i i don't want to say we can't make it there because if anything this cycle is has you know has been accelerating a lot quicker than i thought it would um but i i would say yeah you're it's a good point you know you have to remember that the that one can come after and here and actually ben this is a great example right now of of bitcoin is below its prior all-time high but ethereum's pushing to a new all-time high um and so it just shows you that they don't have to coincide with each other and i mean bitcoin's still what like twenty percent below its power all-time high and if theorems push in to twenty eight hundred dollars potentially here uh in the not so distant future so this is yeah clear evidence that what you said is correct is you know they don't they don't move in tandem and actually this is the perfect chart to show that because this is not the ether usb valuation it's the ether bitcoin valuation um and so you know here here's an interesting chart i don't know if i showed you this one before um but this is our our like logarithmic regression rainbow for ethereum that i made and i think a lot of people you know they've either seen mine or they've seen there's a number of these regressions in the rainbow chart they call it right there's a number of these for bitcoin um and and so one of the things we can take away from bitcoin is that each cycle it tends to drop down a little bit on these on these regression curves right it's not able to to consistently keep up because if it did if it if we stayed and say the top red band for the sake two two more cycles then in 2017 we would have gone we would have already gone to 250 000 which we didn't do um and so the same implication could apply for for ethereum as well you know maybe we don't make it up to this band again and this band is quickly running away from us i mean it's already i mean first of all we have to remember this is changing every day so that the prices i say today aren't going to be the same the same as they are a month from now or six months from now but like right now the upper part of this one is already approaching 20 000 so for us to for for the evaluation of ethereum to reach this one it would have to go to you know to 20k almost immediately and it's only going to get further and further away as as time goes on and remember this is a logarithmic chart so if you just look at it it might not look like it's much it might not look like much but i mean this quickly goes you know this quickly moves up um um up the price scale so this is another another way i i would say i look at the chart and we just recognize that yeah i mean each cycle it tends to do quite well and i've often said you know i i feel like it could easily conquer more of these more of these regression lines as we as we continue along the way yeah and i know that you like you've got a lot of charts that we've talked about uh in the last video that we did together and you do on your channel where you kind of show the market but here's what i want to ask you though i want to ask you what your opinion is because if you say that you think three to four hundred thousand is a little too high um and i would say for me personally that that's three to four hundred k's the most bullish scenario i can see a crazy moon scenario where it tops out at 500 k just like a huge wick from 400 500 goes back down i don't think that's gonna happen i think the 350 range 300 or 350 range where we go but what's your opinion on the stock to flow chart because dr flowchart shows uh a 200 and you know 89 000 bitcoin which is very close uh you know to that 300 numbers so when you say you think it's too high like you think that's you know could happen or you know what's your opinion on stock flow i think it's all about you know what's the probability that's going to happen like so so to for me to say that 300 can't happen which is basically what stock to flow is predicting i think 288 is what stock to flow predicts um for me to say that it can't happen i'm not really doing those models justice i mean i think all models provide some useful insight into the market and at the end of the day all models are going to be somewhat wrong i don't think any of us are going to come close to predicting the exact day the market peaks or the exact price that it peaks you know but we can we can use all these models to try to get our best estimate and i know you know if you if you look at if you look at say like the the roi from from the having right if you look at the roi from the having you can see that we you know we could still theoretically have a ways to go and we know the valuation of bitcoin was around um uh around you know 8 500 or so on the day of the having and the last cycle from the having put in a 30 x so if we were to say 30 x times 8 000 you know we're looking at around a 240 thousand dollar bitcoin it was above 8 000 so we'd be looking at close to 250 you know and that would get you to that 250 300 window if we were in fact able to do a 30x again from the having um the only reason i you know the only reason and ben believe me i would love it if we had a 300 000 bitcoin and i would consider i i would consider that to be the most bullish scenario and i actually yeah i i think this is the most bullish scenario would be like a 310 300 to 350 bitcoin like the most bullish if it happens great we'll celebrate if it doesn't um then we're still doing quite well you know we're still doing quite well um but yeah if you look at this chart you see the first the roi after the first having was 100 x and and the roi after the second halving was was 30x and so yeah it's certainly possible and by the way we're currently at a at a modest 7x from the having so it sort of shows that you know it seems like there still is a lot of potential room for upside and i would say you know my theoretical cap on on what i can see the upside being as measured from the having would be 30x because that's what happened last market cycle and also it happened at a lower market capitalization you know lower last cycle we didn't have institutional money we didn't have like tesla putting in 1.5 billion dollars of bitcoin so i mean they also sold a little bit recently too but we didn't have that happening we didn't have that happening um but again the market cap is higher so i would say yeah this is why i say you know 300k would be like the most bullish scenario because if we go up 30 x from the last having we're we're looking at exactly what we did last cycle and i i i would say it's theoretically possible um but i don't necessarily i don't i wouldn't necessarily say i put all my eggs in that basket again if you look at the market cycle roi from the bottom um you can see that the first one and by the way these are not they're not entirely done justice the first one if you took like if you took like minute data and hourly data this would easily go up to like you know seven eight hundred nine hundred x but it's because i'm using daily closes that it's actually only at a modest 600x um but this was 600x 500x 100x and currently we're looking at a more modest 20x okay and so from where i'm sitting you know i go back to what you said and you're saying you know you think a 300 350 is theoretically possible that's what that would be the most bullish scenario in my opinion because that's essentially putting in a hundred x from the bottom right i mean bitcoin hit 3 100 at the bottom so 100 x from those 310 thousand dollars and that would put the r the market cycle roi is measured from the bottom on on par exactly with what happened last cycle and so far we're actually ahead of schedule right so far away i was gonna say is is according to most charts i see comparing the cycle to the previous cycles right now we're actually ahead like you looked at the stock to flow during 2017 we actually stayed kind of under the mean line but now we're bouncing off it and so i think there's a lot of stuff that seems like like look we got institutional money we got corporate money we have pandemic we have stimulus like it's just really been a perfect storm but i i i still like that's why i stick to my you know i definitely stick to my 322 000 um number it's right in that three to 350 range i think that all of the bullish stuff because you do have to think about the market cap and just how big that's got to be like even if everything's going right that's still like you know your average person looks at that as outlandish but you know what we've been we've been pretty dead on where we thought bitcoin was going to be you know all year uh by our earlier projections and so i don't think that's going to change but of course you know who knows what's going to happen we could have a stock market crash or the fed could come out and say they're going to reduce interest rates or um you know whatever the case may be or increase interest rates whichever one it is and uh you know it could get thrown off because right now i think we're on track for you know a three to 325 thousand dollar bitcoin but if we get if we is what i've always said if we only get a 200 000 one i think we'll all be able to feed our families yeah well i think the other thing there for so for people to remember too is like you know if if if we do go to 300 which i would say is probably the most polished scenario um we're probably only going to be there for a very brief moment in time um before you know before we we come back down to earth for a while because if if history is any indication after these crazy bull markets you do get you do get some some pretty volatile movement to the downside now i mean i don't i i think there's evidence we're getting we're getting diminished volatility so not only to the upside but also for the downside uh which is people don't like to hear for the upside but it actually works in your favor to the downside um uh so yeah i mean i i would say you know hey ben we're i'm right there with you like we're we're looking at the chart and it looks like right now we're ahead of schedule uh if we're able to continue to stay on schedule then it essentially means we're going to be going up another 6x by you know by the end of the year or maybe even a little bit earlier than the end of the year so i think we'll have more data i mean by the summer time we should have more data we're either we're either going to be on track we're going to be on track with it or we're not going to be as we as we say head into into the final part of the year so yeah let's see how it plays out on the chart and i i mean i would love to see a 300 000 bitcoin this year if it happened well i think i think it's definitely possible can't wait to see if it happens benjamin as always thank you so much for coming on the show today look forward to having you back on the show again in the future one of my favorite youtubers uh and guys make sure to go subscribe to benjamin cowan's channel you guys can get access to that down below in the video description we'll put the link for you guys to go to subscribe anything you want to leave us with today you know i think in general i think a lot of people are are always worried about the short term but i think you know whatever you think we know whether whether it's stock to flow whether it's the four year cycle whether it's whatever it is you know basically every single chart most of them would seem to indicate that in the grand scheme of the market cycle time is on our side and that you should not sweat the daily moves you should just not sweat them absolutely i love it you gotta when in doubt zoom out it's so cliche but they become cliches because they're dead on accurate so benjamin thank you so much for joining us everybody drop comments down below let us know where you think ethereum and bitcoin are going to in this cycle let us know what you think about the charts that you looked at today in the bitcoin versus ethereum uh dominance chart drop those down below that's all i got be blessed [Music] you

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