Bullrun cryptos : analyse, suivi et mise à jour Altcoins + Bitcoin | Mars 2021. Stop ou encore ?

Hi Profitable Team. Welcome to the personal finance channel and investment. Today, we are in the crypto currencies playlist. We're going to talk about Bitcoin. We'll be doing a pricing update. Where are we at? Where is it going? Do we start towards the end of the bull run? Are we going back to the assault of 100,000? We will see the follow-up of the portfolio that we had started to put in place together on this chain. We will see the news, especially the story of a French a little disappointed compared to crypto currencies. We will talk about Grayscale with the new listings that happened within this fund. We're going to talk about Glassnode. Finally, we are going to redo all the study we are used to doing. I found you some indicators that we already looked at. We will follow up. There are also new ones. And I will share at the end of the video what I think I am as one of the 2 possible causes of the end of the bull run and the fall of Bitcoin.

And we'll talk about all that. And in the middle of it all allocation, portfolio management … So what I'm suggesting to you is to set yourself up. I'm tidying up my mess. We left. So first thing, there, really, we are … Once again, France has passed … We looked a little bit like idiots in the eyes of the world. So what happened is that there was yesterday … So today is March 18th. Yesterday, March 17, there was the first Bitcoin auctions in France. You should know that when platforms are hacked, there are often problems. There were problems in the past, much less now, on crypto exchanges. There are Bitcoins that had been stolen from a platform. They were found, seized by justice. What happens afterwards are auctions. There have been quite a few in the United States, which are causing a stir, etc. There, it was the very first in France. Event. The French are always late. That's it, we're doing something. And we have a world champion.

There, I think in the world champion category of [ __ ], the guy lands on the easy podium. He bought a Bitcoin, at least a quarter of Bitcoin because there were fractions, several batches which were put up for auction, and he managed to buy a fraction of Bitcoin 5 times the current price. Simply because … Well, I don't know. He is not very smart, he is champion François Pignon. And there you have it, we have the rights. So 500% more expensive than the course. Uh, there you go. Well … how to say? How to say ? How to say ? Sometimes there are people who don't think too much.

In addition, he did not take into account, I think, neither the costs since on auctions, there are costs. There, we are talking about 14% fees, I believe. So it's a bit of a shame. The rest of the sale, what happened, it is that the other batches left in the normal course. So why bother to go buy at auction to buy over or a little below? Plus costs. I do not understand. It's people who saw a little light, I imagine. What is all this telling me? It tells me that maybe, we start to arrive very slowly towards what we often talk about: the stages of market failure where people start to do anything, the effects I sell my house to buy crypto, etc. So we will follow this closely. This is what we will be monitoring today. What I offer you without further delay, it is that we are going to take a tour of the loved one. I remind you that this is the alt wallet that I put together maybe 3 weeks ago.

2 weeks, 3 weeks, a month. I do not know anymore. The goal was to find assets which were not vertical since on the market, you know it, everything is exploding as we saw in 2018, and everything was vertical. So the purpose of this portfolio was to find assets which were not vertical and who were in good investment setups. I remind you of two things. The first is that I am not a financial advisor as part of these videos.

Even if I have the professional skills, I just give my opinion and share what I'm doing. And my mission, it is to popularize the world of investment and finance. So there is nothing perfect about this wallet. There is nothing magic, there is nothing of advice. Second thing, I remind you that it's time to put a big slap on the like button. Do you think I haven't seen you? You forgot to press the like. Support the like! Let it turn blue. It helps this chain, it helps SEO. The goal of the game was to find good setups. I remind you that we are not entering a vertical market because if we enter a vertical market, we can potentially take the top or take, in the event that we succeed, drawdowns.

I remind you that drawdowns hurt. I remind you that the drop percentages cost more that the percentages of increase To catch up with minus 10, you have to do plus 11 To catch up with minus 20, you have to do plus 25. To catch minus 30, you have to do plus 43. And to make up for minus 40, you have to do plus 67%. So the drop percentages cost more, are worth more, hurt more than rising percentages. This is why we are not entering a vertical market. We will rather look for the setups. The purpose of this portfolio, it was indeed to look for setups and one of the best known which are accumulation setups, where nothing happens for a long time and then afterwards, we breakout on volumes.

Often we come to consolidate and then we reclassify. And so we have input setups that are good. Here or there, or there, or there, or possibly there. We are going to say this whole area. So that's what happened. The second thing, since I like to be a little tease, is that I chose moreover half voluntarily, because there was both setup and funny stuff, crypto that are rather unloved, with XRP in mind. Because we see it, and in any case it's my bet, besides the fact that XRP is perhaps frowned upon, etc … I have already made a video. I'll put it there, in the i, on the why of the how. The whole project is explained there. In a weak market, in a bull run, in prices that will become exponential over time, as on the previous bull run and as we think to see on this one. No one is Madame Irma, no one has a crystal ball.

The assets don't matter. The underlyings do not matter because when the market is in the debility phase, when everyone is buying in a pure phase of speculation, of a financial bubble, we don't care what we buy. And it's unfortunate, but we don't look at the fundamentals anymore, we no longer look at the projects, we no longer look at anything. The market is in a weakened phase, we are in a bubble phase and everyone buys everything. So that's also the point a little bit of this portfolio, it is to show that ultimately, the bet I make is that he will come up with the rest. I've been asked a lot for follow-up, so we'll do it. So far, nothing has happened since we bought, in any case me, I bought right at the time … I remind you that Bitcoin, nothing happened. The bull run is gone. It went up strong. And then we made a very big correction. Right now, in the past 2 weeks, we made a beautiful movement of continuation.

The prices must have taken off and this is quite normal. No luck, we bought there. Bitcoin, he did that. The alts, of course, follow the market and follow the king. This is what we will see in this video. So the wallet did that too. So, there, if I show it to you, I'll put the Excel on you, well we are there, not much has happened.

We are generally flat. We are at minus 4% on the totality of this allowance. XRP hurts a little more because, of course, it is also the largest allocation part of the portfolio. And then he's tidying up. We will see it later on the chart. So suddenly, he goes up, he goes down. And then we are between negative 20, plus 10. Minus 20, minus 5, 0, 0.2, etc. So it goes around there. Qtum is on the rise. LSK is on the rise. EOS is down. Ethereum Classic is down. ICX is flat. And TRX is flat. I remind you that this is not a magic wallet. I remind you that this is an under-allocation, a sub-portfolio. I remind you that I am diverse and that is what must be done. I also remind you that you must be diverse. This allocation is diversified and there is also … I put you some of the other alt. We will talk about it later. Let's go in order. So XRP, overall, nothing is happening. I can't tell you better. We are still in this consolidation movement. We're tidying up. I put alerts everywhere. So overall there are two key levels. If we ever break down here, we'll be really not happy.

And this one, and more strongly, we will say more, the biggest relief will be here. So there you have it, as long as we are between these limits, I am ready to take on a drawdown, that absolutely nothing happens. As long as we are between these limits, I do not question my strategy, quite simply. If we break up. it's not that I question, but I will adapt my strategy since we will finally have broken, and we will finally take advantage of the increase. then we will let the gains run. If we break down, I question my strategy and I ask myself real questions.

So either I eat my losses, I take them, I take them, because you also have to know how to cut your losses. And then I would tell you because anyway it's the harsh law of nature, I want to tell you. Or either I'll see. I will see then. I'll let it run or it will depend on the rest of the wallet. It will also depend on the rest of my investments because we are also going to reason at the global heritage level. So that's it for XRP. Quickly, you have it on the video I made on XRP, There's a lawsuit going on with the SEC. I'll give you a little digression on the latest news.

There is one which is interesting, it is this one. So Chris Larsen and his sidekick Brad have filed a Motion to Dismiss with the SEC. Very quickly, what is that in American law? I am far from being a specialist in American law, but I inquired because I want to understand what's going on in this folder. A Motion to Dismiss, basically, it's a defense which will not be based on a defense as one would do in court if ever the trial goes any further. It is a preliminary phase where we will not question what we are accused of. We will assume that the attacker's arguments are OK. So we are not defending the merits of the arguments. We will defend the form. That is to say, we will say: "If everything you're saying is true, well, it's still unfounded, the attack you're making on us.

" So this Motion to Dismiss says, "Even though the SEC, everything you say is true. all your arguments are correct, are verified and verifiable, the trial does not hold and we're trying to get it canceled. " This is one of the first phases before going to really defend yourself on arguments that may not even be all true, etc.

So they put this down, it's running its course. There are also some investors who will intervene in the trial. And so we have big holders, and beyond that now, calls that are starting to be made on social networks With lambda investors in XRP who want to enter. Again, from American law with all the notions of class action, etc. It is possible that people, investors come to the trial, be part of this trial. This is not the subject of the video.

We will speak again. This is just to give a more complete picture of XRP. Now, let's see the rest of the portfolio. We had Qtum. So there, what's going on with this crypto? Well, overall, not much either. We are still in the figure that made us buy, who made me buy. I have to stop saying "we". We had a large base, with an accumulation going on, with interesting volumes full of moments.

We came to break on volumes, precisely. Once again, we came to retouch, reinstate the break. So I, once again, had wanted to buy at the time of the video, the day of the video. So, I hadn't bought very well. I had bought, I think, maybe rather there, whereas it would have been necessary to redeem when we retouched the pivot, here. Well, frankly, I don't care a little because what I bet less on this wallet, is that it goes in a ball, so I didn't go grab 3%. I wanted it to be transparent at the time of the video. Still, what we are drawing, it's relatively clean, that's what we talked about on the first video, it's a figure like that, a contraction, and we hope, quite simply, come and break here with volumes.

For now, nothing is happening. You have to be patient in investing. LSK, I'm not going to explain. It is exactly the same thing that is happening. I'm not making you the same. Exactly the same. Nothing more, nothing less. EOS, exactly the same. Nothing more, nothing less. ETC, exactly the same. Nothing more, nothing less. ICX, same. TRX, same. So it's that easy. And I'm not gonna tell you what I can't tell you. Then I put you there, in blue, the few other small ones that I can have.

Beyond the big ones, of course, Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc. We talked about it on other videos, they are not in Le Mal Loved. They are a bit close. I put them in blue. We have VeChain. I give you the video in the i in detail on the VeChain project. There, for once, it pays a little. I will take my delta to see precisely what that says in terms of percentages. VeChain all time. Where is he ? Where is he ? He's there. 400%. So there you go, that's cool. I had the chance to buy somewhere in the base, when nothing happened after the previous bull run. So there it is off to a good start.

The question we ask all the time: Is there still time to buy this kind of setup? Me, I want to say no. It's vertical. Okay, let's see in daily. I will not buy in the vertical. Eventually, buy back there, on these pullbacks, in this kind of setup, why not. There, we have to see what we are going to do. If we come to do a great consolidation, possibly. Please don't buy vertically. I have Celsius too. The same. Cool, what. So I took the climb here. On the other hand, for once, on Celsius, we are in the kind of figure we want to see in order to buy. There, we are making a nice drink. We simply put it away. We range in a range which is relatively wide. And there is not a bad setup to possibly buy rather at the bottom of the range. There are two main strategies, either at the bottom of the range, either on the breakout of this range, provided that it breaks strongly with volumes and that it makes a beautiful lightsaber.

So it's not for me to give you advice. I'm just giving you the alt status. Synthetix, exactly the same. I'm not repeating myself. It's the same thing I just said about Celsius. We are on this kind of configuration. On DOT, the same. Well, there was a beautiful, beautiful, beautiful climb. I think we're at 300%, something like that. And on Ark, this is something that I bought quite recently, around the same time as the Unloved Wallet.

So I got very little gain, relatively flat. And we are on the same kind of configuration, with much more volatility. We came all the same to make sacred wicks. So there you have it for the Unloved Wallet Tracking and the main alt. We will now move forward on what interests us on the video of the day, it is to take the picture of the global market, beyond this portfolio which is ultimately only part of that market. It's to take a picture of the global market to see where we're going. Where are we on the bull run? As we have seen, there was a very nice and necessary drink, there, in the past 2 weeks.

What is happening in this market? Here, let's go see the chart. So it looks like this. It is sure that in weekly, it is freaking out. It's really vertical. It's much less scary, already, in logarithmic. In daily, it is also much less scary in logarithmic. Otherwise, it's vertical too. What interests us is what happened these past 2 weeks. We had this movement. Tac, tac. It's been even more than 2 weeks. I realize there. Three weeks.

It started 3 weeks ago. We are in the process of making that candle. This beautiful drink that was necessary, like the one we had here. We have these movements that must be created. We are slowly extricating ourselves from it. Was what some might call a bull trap, a false exit from the top which was made. And then we came to reinstate. And then there, what we want to see, that's typically it. And then, that we come to recast, with volumes if possible, because we didn't have a lot of them the last time. So this is what happens, let's say it's the landscape, the technical landscape to which we can do nothing.

We can only observe it. Now we're gonna go see Grayscale because, you know, we have already talked about it on previous videos, it's … It was the king. It's changing. He is less and less alone. But hey, it's still the biggest fund structured in the form of a trust, institutional, on which the big bets are betting. And it is through this, in large part, that the big, the institutional, the big hands, those that interest us, buy. What's going on at Grayscale? Well, as usual, I'm not doing all the spelling for you. Asset under management is exploding, it continues to increase. I'll link this report to you if you want to watch it. What interests us is that they are to make more and more funds available.

They of course have Bitcoin and Ethereum which are the main ones. And then there's a bit of Bitcoin Cash, etc. And then they also have what they call the Large Cap Fund, who takes the bigger ones and mixes them up a bit. So you can make yourself a wallet when you are a institute or a professional investor, sophisticated, that you get into the classes that are going well, you can make wallets through Grayscale that way. Now they emailed their base I'm on, that I'm going to show you there, just yesterday. And what are they telling us? "Hello, we're Grayscale, yay." There you go, as usual. “We have just launched 5 new investment products. A fund on the BAT, a fund on the LINK, a MANA fund, a FIL fund, a fund on LPT.

" Blah blah, blah, blah, blah blah. Conditions, etc. So we say to ourselves: hold on, wait, if one of the biggest institute funds launches funds, sub-funds, well not funds, on these new ones, for them, we no, but on these cryptos, what is happening at the level of the courses? Let's take a look. So for BAT, they announced yesterday. Well, the BAT, he did that. They announced it on the 17th. It might have started to leak from the 16th. Okay, they announced it. Ben, you see what happened. It started vertical. Once again, "Yann, do you think you have to buy BAT?" I am no one to advise you. What I think, anyway, is that we are not coming home on a vertical explosion and especially not …

Finally, you tell me "I put an order and then I caught the break here in programmed order mode ", I tell you yes, great. You got back somewhere around there, well done. But now, in manual, no, it's not at all a good idea. Me, personally, I do not fit there, you do what you want. They also listed Chainlink. Chainlink's reaction was much more nuanced. Not much has happened on Chainlink.

Afterwards, it must be said that good, it is an asset which had already taken well. So he is in a consumption phase which resembles that of Bitcoin. Is this a better setup to go in? Yes, much better. Should I buy it? Up to you. Me, personally, to be transparent, I did not move. Decentraland, the famous MANA, which is really in fashion. How did he react? He generally reacted not much either, since that big lightsaber was already made. He was also in a phase of consumption. So he hasn't changed his consumption phase. He is always there. The setup to buy is much better, but the same, me, there, I did not position myself. If I had to position myself, if I was willing to position myself, I will wait for this famous contraction and then, eventually, I would program in order somewhere over there, on a break with volumes. But hey, when I see what he gave us well what he could have, because I don't have any, but what he has given to holders since the end of the year, start of the bull run, etc, I don't see a huge potential in it.

In any case, it scares me. In any case, it's not that I see no potential or not because I'm not Madame Irma, but I know that when an active, he ate so much rise, there are people on the train, there are holders, there are people who will take profits, and, for me, the RR on the trade is not good. The risk / reward is not good. That is to say that my maximum risk is generally from there somewhere …

It depends how you see it. Somewhere there, or even somewhere there, or possibly even somewhere around there, since we would be on the levels before the bull run. So my risk is there. This means that to have a good risk return … I remind you, it's the distance between my entrance with my maximum risk that is there and my return which must be greater than this risk because if I risk 1 here, my return must be more than 1.

To have a good clean trade, it must be higher. So you see, there, I don't really have the R. I don't really have the R available. Or just a yield of 2, what am I going to look for? I will look high. And there, me, like that, graphically … that's it. And then even with my weak experience on the financial markets, I know that an asset in this situation, yes, he can quite …

We saw with Tesla doing 700%. But this is the exception, not the rule. So he can, but the purpose of the investment, I remind you, it is to put the most chances on his side. It's just a calculation of probabilities. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. I have to be right more times than I am wrong. But in truth, no one is better in the world, no one is Mrs. Irma, and especially not me to say "I am right 90% of the time, I am the king of the world". No, in real life, sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong, and I'm just trying to expose myself to situations where I'm more likely to be right. That's all. I'm looking to make investment decisions or I'm more likely to be right. If I'm wrong I'm wrong I take my loss but if I'm right … it's very simple. Are you more likely to die crossing the highway, watching what is happening and crossing quickly or blindfolded while juggling? There is a situation where you are still more likely to be right.

So if I cross the highway 100 times quickly watching while running, I have a pretty good chance of surviving, roughly. If I walk through it 100 times juggling blindfolded, it's still more complicated. So this is the investment. No more no less. I know my analogy sucks, but this is it. Filecoin too, which they announced to list. Filecoin reaction: well, same, eh. Him, well, he exploded well. So the same, for me, not a correct entry setup. And then it has already given well in the past so I pass my turn. And Livepeer, he reacted like that. So him, downright, is Rocco. So no, especially not a correct entry setup. Congratulations to the folks in it. Think about taking profits. Remember the market won't go up to the sky and that you have to think about taking profits in life. OK, so there you go for the new ones … The new assets that have been listed at Grayscale and their reaction. And congratulations, if you were in it, take some profit. If you're not in it, you saw that most are not a great setup to enter.

Now, what I'm suggesting to you is that we focus on Bitcoin, what's going to happen tomorrow, etc. So the chart, I showed it to you, we know it. We made a consolidation. We wait to see what happens. Are we going to reintegrate this movement here? Are we going to break, it's awesome, Or are we going to break from the bottom on the contrary? See, I put myself on an alert on the bottom breakout. I could have put another one there, but we're in the middle of it.

If we come to break, on the other hand, here, it is a little more problematic short term. So the premium, we had already talked about it. I'll give you the explanation very quickly. So Grayscale ticker GBTC is a closed fund. It is a closed-end fund. I had spoken about it on the video on ETFs, which I put you there. The difference between closed-end and opened-end funds, basically it's a closed fund, that is to say that there is a number of parts which is listed in the market, which is sold to investors. This number of shares determines how many are available in the market. The investors who buy it own the units, so each a part of the fund and then that fund closes. It's not like an ETF that's always open with a NAV and a price that remains close to the NAV. There, it is the opposite, that is to say that this fund is closed. The units are still available on the secondary market. Someone who bought a share can resell it to someone who doesn't, but it's not like an ETF at all.

The value of the shares does not reflect the NAV, the net asset value, or the NPV in French, the value of net assets, at time T. We will see a premium or a discount relative to the value of net assets. Generally speaking, the value of net assets, it is the value of what the fund holds based on its units. There, in this case, for example, Bitcoin. So it's a value that ultimately follows the price of Bitcoin. But where are ready to exchange it Johnny who sells and Jean-Claude who buys it is a value which is in fact close to that value, in relation to the number of shares, of the NAV. But sometimes a little above because there are a lot of requests or sometimes a little below because a lot of people sell therefore there are fewer requests.

This is, overall, the premium or the discount. When we see a big premium situation, as we have seen in the past, it shows that there is a very big demand, quite simply, for this fund, and indirectly for crypto and Bitcoin, since inevitably, given that we only have big ones, institutional investors, etc., who buy or family office, wealth management who buy these funds, mainly, it shows that there is interest from the big guys. So it'll push up a lot easier that if there are only little ones, since it is always globally the turkeys of the farce, the retail. In the past, we have seen premiums that are still a little stupid, at 40%, over the last few years, even during the previous bull run, at 60, 70, 80%, even when we go back a little further, we saw more than 100% premium.

There was a liquidity problem so I don't think we are reviewing these premiums 100% or so. I don't even think we will see these premiums in the 60-70s, because before Grayscale was all alone. And overall, you're fat, you're an investment bank you're a hedge fund, you're a fund yourself, you're an institutional in the broad sense, you could only buy Grayscale. So when Bitcoin ignites, that everyone wanted to buy, there were not 50,000 solutions. So the sellers, since it's a closed fund, were holding back their shares a little. They were OK to sell, but had to pay more. So they managed to sell one and a half times, twice as expensive or a third more expensive their shares, according to the moments, that what it was really worth. That the NAV of the fund. It's going down for two reasons. 1, there is more liquidity in the market and there is more competition. Grayscale, today, is no longer alone.

For example, we have the BTCC we talked about, an ETF that launched on the Toronto Stock Exchange, so who's starting to get a bit of traction as well since there it is, the BTCC. So you see, the assets under management, well, it started small, 400 million. And there it was launched, we talked about it on video it was launched at the end of February. We were at 400 million under management. There, we are already at almost a billion, 991 million under management. So we see that it goes up. We see that there is more and more competition, therefore, inevitably, the premiums drop. This is the first reason for this premium plateau.

On the other hand, when we go negative, it's not the only reason, the only explanation of the reduction in the premium. when we go negative and we could spend more, there are two things that add up. Grayscale is no longer on its own, therefore necessarily less premium from sellers. And on top of that, we are witnessing a consolidation at the same time. So, obviously, we had something that was interesting.

We got a discount for people who wanted to come home. 11%, all the same, at the lowest. So what is not worrying at all when we are in the consumption phase. It would have been at a time when things are going up it would have been at a time when we are globally stable, where we would have been … My graphic, you know, it doesn't look like anything anymore. We would have been somewhere there, we would have said to ourselves: there is something weird going on.

The institutes know something we don't know, they want to go out. Ooh there, I'm scared. But no, it happened when we were there. So hey, that doesn't scare me. All it shows is that we're gonna have to be interested to others than Grayscale because it shows that it's not just Grayscale now now in this market. So when we compare, it's still a bit the king. When we compare here … So this is the new ETF I told you about. So we arrive at a billion under management. Okay, this is brand new. When you compare to Grayscale, well … it's still not the same delirium. We are at 20 billion, I believe. 36 billion! I still had 20 billion in my head. 20 billion was at the start of the year. We are at 36 billion under management. Well, it's not … They are still present.

And you see, when we look at the charts, we do not see a crazy decollect. What we would be afraid to see is that it will come down at the holding company level, on assets under management. There were small drops, but we are not on an absolutely crazy pick-up. We went from 35 to 30 billion. Well, it's something, it's money, but it is not, at the scale of the fund we are talking about, it's not crazy. On the other hand, if there we are at 40 billion, we see that we go to 10, 12, 15, there, it will be a little more scary anyway.

Especially if there is a cash flow on these funds, it means that the institutes go out. If the institutes go out, that means it's not good. Me, the bet I make, without being Madame Irma, is that when we arrive on the home straight, the parable, the market which becomes stupid, etc, we talked about it in several videos, We will see the prices increase, the size of the candles increase, everyone will talk about it, all the details, etc, more and more debility in the market. And at the same time, the assets under management of these funds will either remain very oddly stable, either start to lower quietly, or even really, while prices will continue to rise.

You're going to have a kind of crossing of the curves. And there, for me, it will stink serious poo. Let's go back to the chart. Just a little aside. Often I am told: "I have a question. What is the alt season? What is the difference ?" When we say, "this is the alt season", it's just that we think alt will outperform Bitcoin in terms of increase. There are two big schools among crypto fan boys. I invest everything in Bitcoin because it's the revolution, it's the absolutely crazy thing, it's the king.

Where is I investing in alt and the little unknown thing, DeFi, because it's exploding all over the place. I don't think there is a good or a bad situation. You know, I don't think so whether there is a good or a bad situation. I don't think there is any truth. I think the key to a successful investment, it's the reduction of risk, it's the limitation of volatility and risk on portfolios and therefore on the markets and therefore on heritage.

Quite simply, it involves diversification. It is the best weapon to reduce the risk. You can take all the simulations in the world wealth management, portfolio management, diversification, systematically, from the moment the assets are not correlated with each other. It makes it possible to smooth the risk, reduce the risk, smooth performance, lower volatility. So the most dangerous thing in any investment and especially crypto, it is the football club: "My crypto is the best. BTC, BTC, BTC." "No, DOT." "No, MATIC." This is not how we invest properly.

On the other hand, which is interesting to see, is that there, we will compare the market cap of Bitcoin … I don't remind you of the market cap, I put the video in the i. If you haven't seen it, take a look because it's good to understand it. Basically, what we say, in French, is that when we reach the end of the cycle, in any case that's what we saw the last time, the dominance of Bitcoin is decreasing and the market cap, in competition with Bitcoin, alt increases and comes to double it. There, what we see is that we have the explosion the market cap of other alts excluding Bitcoin on the candles and that the market cap, the dominance of Bitcoin in competition with that, is, for the moment, relatively flat. We did not see this big drop, there, that we saw in 2018. We may not be here anymore. Is it going to happen this time or not? The cycle may be different, may have differences, but on the verge of the market cap, as usual, we are going to look at lots of clues, lots of arguments.

On the verge of dominance, in any case, of Bitcoin, we do not yet have a big drop in Bitcoin's dominance. So if we saw that tomorrow, we would say: "Indeed, this is the alt season. Bitcoin's dominance is waning." We would continue to have a rise in the market cap other crypto, excluding Bitcoin. And there, we would say: yes, there, we are in the alt season. So alts will outperform and potentially without being Madame Irma, we might come to the end of the cycle. Next, let's take a look at that indicator. The spent output, we talked about it last time. I'll do it again for you very quickly. How the blockchain works, if you hadn't followed the last video. When there are exchanges on the blockchain from one wallet to another, we call it an output. It's coded like that.

That's the name of the thing. So, an output. When this output arrives in my wallet, on my address, I have two choices: either what I touched, it can be Bitcoin or any crypto. There, we are talking about Bitcoin. Either I do nothing. I hold it, and therefore we are talking about an unspent output. Unspent, therefore not spent. So basically I stuck it out. And if I spend it myself, I send it for example on an exchange to sell it or I send it to you to buy a service, conversely, we are talking about a spent output. So that means that I moved these Bitcoins to potentially take profits, buy something, etc. It interests us because, overall, it shows us if people are rather holding or if they are instead using the change, either to sell it and recover fiat, either to sell it against another crypto, either to take back the profits, to get out or buy a service. So this is what it looks like.

So we have the price curve in black. At the bottom, the more bars we see are dark and tend towards purple, and the longer we have held the crypto. So we came to spend the famous output, but after a long time. There, for example, if I highlight this one for you, there are spent output that have been spent, spent, for more than 3 years. Between 3 and 5 years for the one I'm showing you. What we saw in the previous video. I'll show them to you in full. I only take those who are between 7 and 10 years old. So that means it's been spent after being held for between 7 and 10 years. What we saw on the previous video, I'm going to show you those, it's that the younger we were … I have all the time intervals: 3-5 years, 2-3 years, etc. The more we went into the youth of the holding company, finally, and plus the peak of spent output, therefore of expenditure of this crypto, globally, came close to the peak of the bull run.

What we saw is that the people who hold and that can be understood very well psychologically … When you hold, for my example, between 3 and 5 years old, you've been holding your Bitcoin for 3-5 years, you saw any anyway because 3-5 years in the crypto market, it's like 35 years in normal life. So you've seen stuff that happened. So, inevitably, when the prices go up, you're used to it so you won't panic. On the other hand, when we arrive at the top market, top moumoute, bull run, end of bull run, well, you won't sell right away because you say to yourself: wait, man, I've been holding it for 3-5 years. This is not what will scare me. It's just a dip. Limit, you redeem, you see. Buy the dip. We laughed about it in the past. And time will pass, the prices go down, go down, before you agree to say, "That was the end of the bull run." So you sell late and that's what's happening here. The peak of sales, of liquidation, it is there, it is late.

And the other smaller peaks, they are overall anyway late compared to the price peak. When we go down in duration, between 2 and 3 years, it looks, overall the same. On the other hand, when we go down again, 1-2 years, we get a little closer, we get a little closer to the top. It is people who hold for a shorter time. Maybe they're less emotional with their investment. Maybe they're no longer there in investor mode, in bubble mode, in fashion I'm here just to make money. Then when we go down again, 6-12 months, we see that we are still getting closer to the top. Well, there are still a lot of people late, but there are also quite a few people who are closer to the top.

We also have people who took profiles on the climb. Here, we had a few spent. And just before the end of the climb, there is something interesting, is that we have a drop in the volume. So there we have people, basically, who sold the rally, the climb. During the last climax, when everyone's like crazy, there is less spent.

People are starting to hold a little more because when it's vertical, everyone says: "Ah, there it is, this time it's going to 1 million …" And then afterwards, it starts to take profits. But you see, closer to the top. And when we still descend to people who hold for even less time, between 3 and 6 months, we are even closer to the top. We also have a lot of profit taking on the rise. You saw, like, contraction just before the top. And just after, for once, we are even closer, increased volumes. When we go down again, 1-3 months, same thing, we have taken profits during the climb, a drop just before the top and a nice explosion just after, even closer, with people even less late. People between a week and a month, have almost the top. We have taken profits, we have a small contraction before the top, and they are pretty much the best.

They are even closer to the top. And a day, a week, them, for once, the same, profit taking, profit taking, profit taking, contraction. And they have the best. They are pretty much the best. They have the first, what they think at the time, bear trap after the top, and they go out. So it tells us overall that speculators short-term holders, rather traders, rather those who arrive at the end of the cycle because they saw light and everyone is talking about it, on the large mass, it is also them which will timer a little better at the end of the cycle. And via this pattern of … During the beginning of the rally, well, it takes profits. On the acceleration of the rally, there is a contraction of these spent output. And then we get to the top here and there, boom, We have an explosion of volume and spent output.

We can say to ourselves: we could timer the same way this time. So that is interesting and that is what we will be watching. There, me, when I give you all because that's what interests us, it is to say to oneself: let's stop him now. We see that we don't have a volume explosion yet people who hold for a short time. All the biggest speculators. So there, over a day-a week, anyway, we have a nice increase, so we want to say to ourselves: we may be there, among the people who sell the hike and do the right thing, that take profit over time. We have not yet seen this drop on the very short termists. On the slightly longer termists, the same. We are in a rising phase, so rather there. We haven't seen a drop yet. But you see, there, the drop, it is light. When we increase a little, again, good, there, difficult to read.

1-3 months, we do not really understand what is going on. There may be a drop, there may not be a drop. It is difficult to read. Then we do what we can with the charts. There, the same, we could see it in the following way … Well yes, that is to say that there, yes, we have people who sell the climb.

The scale is greater since there is more liquidity in the market. There, maybe we have a drop that's happening, a little bit like that. So we will see if, later, there will be a peak. But you see, them who are rather behind on the sale, maybe they are giving us some info in advance and we have a bit of the same info here. We have people who take profits on the climb. And there we have a contraction. We are on 6-12 months. So there, me, what I'm just telling myself about these indicators, is that we are a little advanced and there is still room, but we start to see things happening.

When we look at the hold waves, I also told you about it on the previous video, the same, we see that on the … So there, it's the same. It's the holders this time. We even talk more about spent output. We are talking about holding in portfolios so for how long it has not been moving. Likewise, on the previous run, we see waves on the shortest term holders. Same reflection. There, you see the 6-12 months, the 3-6 months that are there, the 6-12 months that are there and the 1-3 months that are there. These three colors, we see that we have, you see, peaks. And close to the top, the biggest peak. See, always a little late on the peaks. There, we have a contraction, nothing is happening. And there, we wonder if we are not seeing the first peak. It tells us pretty much the same story. We would rather be on the first peaks.

Is there another indicator that I love to watch, this is the net transfer volume of exchanges. Basically, it's if people are withdrawing from exchanges to put, for example, on a cold wallet or if they are rather in the process of depositing on the exchanges. And so, when you deposit on the exchanges, we speak in crypto, we say to ourselves that it is to sell them. If I take my cold wallet and that I put the crypto back on the exchanges … So there, what we had seen is that indeed, before … There, for once, they were rather early, when you look at the entire market. Before the top, we had a big green peak here, people who came to deposit on the exchanges. There, we don't have it yet. So far, not much is happening. We don't have a peak either, as we could see, exit from exchanges, especially in the flat as we have seen here and there, where the big guys charge during the crypto nuclear winter.

When everyone says it's over. We have neither the peak in one direction, nor the peak in another. It's a little bit dead. We will see the evolution. Me, that does not particularly scare me. Then, there, we have the total number of transactions. It simply tells us the state of overheating since at the end of the bull run, we saw it in 2018, we saw it in 2014, the peak is of course much lower since the exchange volumes were lower, also in 2013, but we also saw them. 2018, crazy bull run that everyone knows. Huge peak, so number of transactions on the rise. There is the number of transactions all mixed up. But if there are more transactions, it means more purchases, more sales, more mailings on exchanges, more profit taking, etc.

So the same, you see. It's funny. We had a peak in transactions during the rise, then a contraction, always the same, when everyone thinks it's the new digital gold, paradigm shift, it's great, it's never going to come down. And then, when we get close to the top, anyway, there is overheating and we realize that there are transactions that lead to saying: it's people who buy.

But conversely, transactions are people who sell. All in all, it's funny, we manage to time the top well. Again, on the peak. Because there are and people late and people ahead. Which means that, in the end, it is really good on top. This is something that I also watch a lot. After that, nothing happens during the nuclear winter. It capitulates. At the start of 2020, we say to ourselves: hey, cool, maybe something will happen. End of 2020-2021, bull run. We don't have any madness yet. We do not yet have madness like here. On the other hand, I take it with a grain of salt because there are really more people who have accounts on exchanges, people who know crypto today, There are definitely more ways to buy crypto, though. We saw it in particular with Grayscale, etc. And so, I tell myself that the transactions, when we look at the gross number of transactions, yes, it is greater than great mass, but are we going to have the same peaks? Are we not going to have more transactions which will be gathered in … The bigger the funds, the bigger the transactions and the more they are gathered.

Why do 10 dollar transactions when can you make just one for $ 10? That's the idea, but in millions or billions. So I take it with a grain of salt. Maybe the peaks will be less. Maybe they will be only at this level. And maybe that's going to be one of the differences from this bull run. Or maybe I'm completely stupid and we are only at the beginning and that we will see Bitcoin at 500,000. I am not Madame Irma. Then next. The number of transfers to the exchanges. This time, it is the incoming transfers that we are only looking at. Same reflection: it transfers, it transfers, small contraction just before the peak, and that times the top pretty well, again. There, we do not see madness. We would be somewhere over there. And even reflection also on what I said before for that indicator. Are we on the same bull run configuration or are there differences? I wanted to take a little future aside.

We talked about futures on previous videos. This is important for two reasons. Because it is mainly, at least for real futures, future CMEs, etc., it is mainly the tool, one of the number one tools for institutions, who will be able to benefit from the legal framework, who will be able to benefit from the leverage effect that futures offer them, and the optimization of their cash offered by futures. And low costs, liquidity, etc. CME, I remind you, it is one of the largest exchanges in the world. In terms of financial flow, we are talking about tens of billions a day. Hundreds, even, it seems to me. So this is really the place where the institutions are located. Wait, I'm checking what I'm saying to not say [ __ ]. That's it, I'm not saying [ __ ], we're talking about 48 billion, for example, February 25 trading volume. 38, 36, 33, 19, etc. 48 billion daily transaction volume, for example, for the date of February 25. So here it is, it is not the little Jean-Kevin who invests. I am looking at futures for this reason. For instit. And the second reason is that on exchanges, we also have what we call perpetual futures. There are even futures which are not perpetual besides, but which are more intended for retails.

Because the big guys don't trade futures on the exchanges, but it is intended for classic investors like you and me. And these futures there, ultimately, serve them, to these investors, to also take leverage. Quite simply, it's a leveraging tool. And I want proof of the fairly recent tweet from Binance which explains to us that their future operations increase with a relatively not badly edgy volume too. $ 2.7 billion. And that, and that's what I want to highlight, 60% of traders use 20 leverage, 21% of traders use 125 leverage. I would just like to make two parentheses. You must not do that. That is to say, a lever 125 … I'll make it simple for you. You have a capital of 10,000. And you're going to use a 125 lever. I'm going to round up to 100, it'll keep me from worrying. You are going to use a lever 100 with a capital of 10,000. So you invest 10,000, leverage 100. It's like you've invested $ 1 million. It's good, you say to yourself: it's cool, with just a capital of 10,000, I can pledge $ 1 million in the market. This is the principle of the 100 lever. Leverage 125 would be 1.25 million. Very well, suddenly, I say to myself: yes, indeed, with a commitment of a million, if Bitcoin is 10% during the day, as he can, well yeah, great, I won 100,000 balls, too good.

Except that what we forget is that in leverage 100, we necessarily multiply the movements by 100. So on the rise, 100 times more, on the downside, 100 times more. So a movement of 1% because crypto makes no more than 1% per day. 1% volatility on crypto is … You turned, "I'm going to the bathroom, I'm coming back", that's 4%, you see. 1% times 100 equals 100%. So it's not complicated. You take a lever 100 or 125, your capital of 10,000 balls, with a decrease of 1%, it is simply burnt.

So take a lever 100 … Or what are they saying on their tweet? 125. Or even 20. "60% of traders use leverage 20 or higher." Even a lever 20 … Minus 1% equals minus 20% of your capital. When can it work? It's not possible. So it shows two things. 1, there are still more and more people who do not have the fundamentals of investing. Because when you use a 125 lever, either you really know what you are doing and you use a sub-sub-sub-allocation of your capital in a purely margin account.

But it's stupid because it's going to be too volatile. You are going to fart. Finally… It's no use, frankly. You have a 1% chance of success. But hey, let's admit. You are the king of oil. Or you're just stupid. You're just unconscious. And you're at the casino. Well, it's not that you're stupid. it's that you're unconscious, that's all. You haven't learned the basics of investing before you start, what.

So you're at the casino. After that, it's OK, eh. Me, I have something that I hate, it's the people who say "I play on the stock market". With crypto, it doesn't work, but "I play on the stock market". For me, the Stock Exchange is not a game at all. I don't know if for you it's a game, if your money is a game, if for you investing is a game. But me, my money, investing, my return, it's not a game. I don't play on the stock market. I invest. I invest intelligently. And I train continuously all my life. I'm learning more and more. I'm looking to do analyzes and put in good setups, as we talked about earlier, investment. Sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm right. But at least as many times a year as possible if I take 1000 investment traits, positions, I try to be in good setup at least 900 times. Otherwise I really did anything. I can [ __ ] myself up 100 times, but not 500 times or 800 times in 1000. Take it from the lever 125, no.

No, don't do that. Lever 125 is just there to lose you. It's just a broker thing because it goes faster. I'm throwing stones at no one. There are people who take it, there are people who offer it. But you shouldn't do that. No Lever. Possibly a 2-3 leverage when you manage your capital well. It will depend on your profile. Small levers, possibly, it gets along well. And on trading, for example, But levers 20, 30, 40, 100, it's stupid, it's useless. Besides, that's why it was banned, especially in many markets, especially in Europe where before you had access to lever 400. Can you imagine the movement of the assets to burn your account with a lever 400? And you got an account at 10,000, 1 million, 10 million, it's the same, lever 100, it's … there you go. So why do I care to see more people that deal with futures and what tells us that people use leverage, etc? That injects a lot of money into the market.

First thing, it drives up the market. Second thing, it shows that there is more and more gamblers in the market. People, precisely, who are not stupid but not trained. Sorry if I shock people. Who are not trained. I speak fast, who are not trained on the investment and how to do the right thing. They see light, 125, they say to themselves: cool, i will win 125 times faster, they click 125. So that shows that we are also reaching maturity. I often talk to you about the state of market weakness. I'm talking to you that we're going to see more and more beginners, etc.

So that's also clues for me of the progress of the bull run. It is there, it is very real, it is not finished. I don't have a crystal ball to know how far it will go but I think, except exogenous factors which we will talk about right after, that it will not stop tomorrow. We are not on a consolidation that will break down. I think she will snap up. It only concerns me. This is not advice. Because I see this. When I see CME, the volumes increasing more and more, I see that we are in contango more and more. Sorry, I'm not going to redo all the definitions. You will watch the previous videos, in the crypto playlist. I tell myself that the institutes are there too. Well, there isn't a lot of volume on the options, though.

I'm wondering. I don't really know what to think. On the other hand, on futures, there is volume, there is contango. It remains stable. So, that, OK. It was the future parenthesis. Beyond that, we also have a flow of good news. It is true, must admit. We saw it. We talked about it at length, wide and sideways. You will be able to watch the video because in this video, it's not just the story of this news.

We also talk about a lot of things. Yes, Tesla bought 1.5 billion Bitcoins. It's cool. They say they will accept it as payment. I think they will realize that we will have to accept others because Bitcoin is far from being the most efficient, and the cheapest. And it is an ecological disaster. But that's still good news. Mastercard, we had also seen it in another video. Yes, that's still good news. When Mastercard begins to say "we will accept this, that".

Well done ! It dates from yesterday, that. Microstrategy. Microstrategy, still a big box that is interested to do, overall, intelligent software. I won't go into detail. I don't know her well enough and then who cares. But still it is listed, we are still talking about a box which makes 480 million revenue. Well, there you have it, it's not the little box. She announces that she has invested in Bitcoin. As usual, you are familiar with SEC forms in the United States. Well, 15 billion Bitcoins when she already had some, eh.

So they are strengthening their position. What are we here? Where is the date? It was yesterday, I think. March 12, sorry. March 12, it's been a week. So they are in the process of recharging battery in the conso. Buy the dip, Microstrategy. When I see these big boxes, it's still considered like instit … When you're CEO of a company that makes 480 million annual revenues, listed, public, with real assets, etc, you're not the only one pushing the button, you have CFOs in all directions who are advising you, you have investment banks, you are listed, you have shareholders, you're public … When I see this once, I say to myself: it is perhaps an enlightened one. When I see this 2 times, 5 times, 10 times, I say to myself: there is real traction, so that's good news. That explains to us that we are potentially not at the top. Morgan Stanley, same, it dates from yesterday.

It's all hot. First bank to accept, finally first big bank, US Bank, Morgan Stanley, to offer its clients in wealth management access to Bitcoin funds. So they could do it on their own, Morgan Stanley customers. Except that this is really a Morgan Stanley product. in company, I want to tell you, from them, Galaxy Digital, who are relatively well known, in particular the CEO, in the Bitcoin environment. And they fundraise, much like Grayscale. It's not legally structured the same way, but, overall, they also fund crypto. So they made a partnership with Morgan Stanley, that is the subject of this article. And we explain to you that we give access to clients in wealth management. There are still some restrictions, but these are restrictions for wealth management clients, so it's generally normal, what.

So customers must have at least 5 million assets with the bank, are qualified investors, so in the United States, it is more than 1 million assets or more than 200,000 annual income. Clients in wealth management, that fits in the boxes. And we explain that they can charge as much as possible 2.5% of their total networks, of their total assets on these products. Which doesn't seem like much, but what is still an allowance in wealth management quite aggressive. Well … substantial. So if all the wealth management, institutional funds, family office, etc., in particular investment banks, in particular private banks, go in this direction, to allow more and more their customers to charge in crypto currencies, necessarily, it also shows that the market is increasing.

It is this fund, the BTCG, which is also listed, therefore Galaxy Bitcoin Funds. So that's OK, it's going in the right direction. There, if you want, from the very beginning of the video, we want to say there are clues which show us that we are still not at the beginning, but there are plenty of clues that tell us that it's still very different. We have already talked about it, this bull run is that of the institutional players.

It's not that of individuals like the last time. Indeed, it is very different in its composition. But will the outcome be different? We will talk about it. Another little good news. When I see this I wonder if this is good news or if you start to be stupid. Jay Z announces a Bitcoin fund with Jack Dorsey. So, well, Jay Z … Watch out! He's a hell of a businessman, investor, etc. I am thinking of making videos on certain personalities. You can tell me in the comments. So he's not just anyone, he's a smart guy, he's an investor, he's an entrepreneur, but hey … I see more and more personalities that throw stuff. Beside that, all is not rosy. Beware of confirmation bias. Be careful not to revel in the fact that this is the future.

Bank of America, no later than the day before yesterday, still tells us that it is volatile, it is not practical, that's a bit of crap. It dates from yesterday. It's boring, Bitcoin. Yeah, OK, store of value, whatever you want but it sucks, it doesn't work, it's slow, it's expensive, it pollutes. So there are also opposing paths. And I slowly come to what I mean and on what i think may be one of the two possible exogenous factors, dangerous, unknown, immediate, which can spell the end of the bull run.

And that, unless you have a crystal ball, we don't know when they will fall. We have a real problem, more and more voices are being raised. This was already the case in the past, but, inevitably, in the middle of a bull run, there are more and more teachers, there are more and more uses of this blockchain. We're really talking about Bitcoin, but if Bitcoin collapses, the others will not survive. You can say whatever you want, the best crypto in the world, the trick, the fastest, the cheapest … If Bitcoin freaks out, everything will follow. We have seen this in the past. Yeah, there you go. Bitcoin will soon consume, should soon consume more current, electricity, consumption than Australia. 10 times more than Google, Microsoft and Facebook combined. Hello! There is a problem ! I will also put you the link of this article. It is a problem and we are talking about it more and more. And it's not me saying it, it's public opinion. More and more people also have an important voice, investors …

I remember Bill Gates who said it's an ecological aberration and many more. We have China starting, and it's not the world champions of pollution, between us, which begins to ban mining operations because it consumes too much. OK, I'm talking about China. Guys who don't sign conventions, etc, who don't give a [ __ ], most polluted country in the world, finally one of the most polluted. Uh, hi! India also announces that it wants to ban crypto altogether. They didn't piss off, "we're going to ban everything". And who talk about fines, Who talks about leaving a time X, we talk about a year, 6 months, for people to liquidate their crypto and then we talk about fines, we talk about sanctions, really, or even jail. Finally … OK. So they might be a little extreme, but there are many, India. It is also a country that is growing. It's not just anyone. India, we, in our vision perhaps as Westerners, it's "India, yeah, okay", but no, guys. So me, that's not that it scares me, is that I think that there, we have perhaps one of the two factors.

The other, we will talk about it in another video. Which can cause an early end of the bull run, immediate, exogenous, dangerous, because if tomorrow, we do not know the discussions that are happening, we also talked about CBDCs, stablecoins that central banks want to put in place. They want to put them in place because they have understood very well the advantage of crypto and the revolution it is at the technological level, but they want to set up of stablecoin to avoid volatility. They want to put in place protocols that communicate. We talked about it in particular through XRP, in any case the company, which tries to work with them, to allow these CBDCs to communicate with each other.

They are very aware of the issues electricity consumption and pollution. What tells us that tomorrow there will be no announcements made in countries a little closer to us? Because yes, the United States, which are a big driver of upward prices and the global economy, lots of Asian countries which are also quite big drivers prices up. Yes, well, indeed, when they see news from India, it moves the markets a bit, but not crazy. And if Europe tomorrow, if Brussels tomorrow, if tomorrow the United States announces even plans to regulate, reduce consumption, to verify the origin, to ban, to regulate in the broad sense, it can cause, not a closure or an explosion, they have no power over Bitcoin, but it can cause panic fear among investors who will say to themselves: I sell, I stop buying. And in a bull run situation that needs, I remind you, more and more new capital inflows to be supported …

We need more and more capital if we want it to hold. If it breaks, it goes down. And if it goes down, it panics. And we see the crypto markets as they are schizophrenic, they can break, break, break, break. So that was my little touch attention though. Think about taking profits. I remind you that if you're in profit on these [ __ ] crypto, take profits, don't wait for a timer up. You'll never have it, the top is not complicated. An investment is to go somewhere, go out to another and take a percentage. It's not going downstairs, going out upstairs. This is the magical YouTube channel or the world champion book of technical analysis. In truth, it's impossible to do that. If there, the increase is X%, you, what you will take, it's your Y, here, between two bands. You will never have the ultimate top and the ultimate bottom. Or maybe once in your life.

It's like having the royal flush in poker. You'll get it once, twice if you're lucky, but that's all. So watch out for that. And also something else. I wanted to talk to you about this because I heard it said and really, I am very measured, I love crypto … Be careful, I invest in it, I make allowances, over-allocations, under-allocations. I treat them exactly like my other investments. I see them the same way as the financial markets. Except what the financial markets have taught us, especially via this book which is a bit of a challenge to read, but if you are interested, you go to my library, I put it there and in the notes of the episode. There is this book there. This book, Reinhart and Rogoff, well-known economists, PHD, professors, Yale, university, who are really benchmarks in the study of market cycles and in particular historical cycles. In this book, we tell you about 800 years of market cycles.

Yeah, over the past 100-200 years, the info is fairly easy to find. They went looking for 800 years old grimoires, etc, until the Middle Ages, of market cycles. And not the markets like today, centralized, decentralized, Internetized. Old registers, etc. And then the commodity markets, especially gold which has been priced for an extremely long time, and currencies. So all finance in the broad sense and international finance. And what we put you forward in the book that bears its name very well, "This time is different", "This time it's different", is that as far back as studies go, we always said "this time it's different". Market conditions are more the same. There is new technology. Startups did not exist. It's the Internet, it's not like it used to be. The fax is the revolution. Ah, the Minitel! Gold was before Bretton Woods, that has changed. But crypto didn't exist. The last bull run wasn’t institutes. There are institutes. Oil, it can never go below so much. Yes, but war won't happen.

The Russians won't get the nuclear bomb. Blah blah blah. And each time, we explain to you by A + B that this time it's different, and each time, the outcome is the same. Everytime ! What goes up comes down. The trees do not rise to the sky. Currencies go back and forth. Inflation is going both ways. Real estate markets. Everything, everything, everything. The markets, globally, cycle, whether you like it or not, that's how it is. Markets cycle. They do that, that's all. Sometimes there are cycles within cycles. There are sub-cycles, but the markets do cycles. And so there, I don't know if where we are for crypto, we might just be there but what is certain is that at one point … So believe that it will stabilize, that this is it, it's going to become thing, world currency, it's not true, it won't happen. So I don't know where it's going to go. I don't know when it's going to be okay. I don't know the history of pollution etc.

All I know is it will be no different. Or anyway, much smarter guys that you and I have shown over 800 years. So on that key, tell me in the comments if you agree with me with the thumb, that's nice. Small SEO comment, if you have nothing to say, that's also nice. Ask your questions it allows me to prepare the next videos. But this market is great. The financial markets are great. Crashes, sometimes there are explosions, magnificent bull run … The role of an investor, the work of an investor, it's not to play on the stock market or whatever, it is to invest correctly, to take profits.

So please, we cut, we make allowances, we are smart, we try to avoid confirmation bias, we make sure to know the psychological biases. I also put the video to you. We spoke very recently about the various investor biases. And in investing, there are some funny things and boring stuff, but you also have to know them because that's what will make the difference in the long run. Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. And even if with crypto, we think we can do full of money in two weeks, which is true, when something is 1000%, we can make lots of money. Except if I take 100 newbie investors, too beginners, something that makes 1000%, their reaction is "I'm happy, I'm taking more risks" or "I don't take my profits" or "I do not correctly recut my positions and I keep a completely unbalanced allocation ". How many people have made their fortunes with Bitcoin and now have 80, 90, 100% of their wealth in Bitcoins? It's completely stupid. It can continue to rise as it may fall. And making 10 million euros is very good.

But if tomorrow you lose 8, you won't be very smart. This is the last word. Pay attention to yourself. See you soon, the Team. Ciao!.

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