Please, everyone, sit down. Don't get too crazy here, but the technical target
would be all the way down to $17,500. – I'm not saying we are going to go–
– $17,000?!?! BitSwap is the hottest new way to trade tokens. Crawling all the top decentralized exchanges, BitSwap gets you the very best price and value for your trades. BitSwap is changing the game. Try it now at bitswapdex.io. Welcome to BitBoy Crypto!
The largest crypto channel in all the Interwebs. My name is Ben. Everyday on this channel, I show you
how to make money in cryptocurrency. If you like money and crypto, make sure to subscribe to the channel
for your chance to win one full Bitcoin. You can get the details on that down below. Today, we brought on Chris from MMCrypto
to talk about the sudden drop of Bitcoin over the last 24 hours and whether or not you should be worrying.
We're going to give you some exact
price targets on the upside and one that you've got to see
to believe on the downside. Let's just say hope it doesn't go there. Also, guys, if you want to trade based off
of any of the information in this video, well, it's not financial advice, only opinion, you can do that by visiting bitboycrypto.com/deals,
scrolling down to the Bybit section. You can also get access to our market
indicator of choice, Market Cipher, where you get 5% off with the code
on the website. Alright, guys, let's go ahead
and jump into the video. Hey, guys! I'm joined again this week
with Chris from MMCrypto. Don't forget to subscribe to his channel down below.
But really exciting times. He's back in his home base. And he wants to talk some Bitcoin with us. As you guys know, Bitcoin has
been extremely volatile lately. So, Chris, how are you doing? And how is Bitcoin? Dude, I'm doing very well. Bitcoin is basically like the color of your T-shirt, but I think we will go– we are going
to talk about that later on. It's red, by the way. But, yeah, thanks. I'm back in Dubai. I can maybe show you quickly
here the Burj Khalifa because that's the biggest tower in the world. I'm always saying, I want the next
candle for Bitcoin to be one, green – and as big as the Burj Khalifa.
– I love that. We are going to talk about that, of course.
I have two scenarios which couldn't
be more different to each other but, at the same time, couldn't
be more closer to each other when it comes to the decision point. So let's talk about that. – Let's talk about the price targets
– Let's do it. and also how to trade it, of course. Yeah, I know that's what everybody's interested in, how can we take advantage of this situation, but also not just how to take advantage of it,
but how to be safe if we do break down. So let's go and see what you got on the charts. Alright. There we go. And we are starting on the daily candles for Bitcoin. This is something I talked about on the chart, but, of course, I have some unique new happenings
here which just happened recently here. So first of all, as a quick recap, this rising wedge actually started all the way
back on the 12th of December.
Actually, I was wondering why
no one is talking about that, but besides that one fakeout, it is a very, very legit pattern here. And right here, we can see that
yesterday night, we broke down, and for the first time since three months,
we closed a daily candle below. And this is in and of itself already very bearish. But let's zoom out a little bit and let's not
get crazy here about the price action and let's see what's actually happening
volume-wise because at the end of the day, you want the market to agree to that breakdown, and so far, we are not having
volume confirming that. So far, I wouldn't say this is a 100% breakdown. The technical target of that breakdown–
and please, everyone, sit down. Don't get too crazy here, but the technical target
would be all the way down to $17,500. – I'm not saying we are going to go–
– $17,000?!?! – Yeah, yeah. Like we are–
– Wow. Less than 1%, in my opinion.
Less than 1%, right? It's the technical target, but less than 1% that we are going there. Definitely, guys. I mean,
I'm not banking on that for sure because also if we are taking off the volume profile, you can see, even though we broke down here, we have a very important support by a level
you were actually also looking at, $47,000, which would be, for me, a possible scenario here
if this breakdown continues, Big, big volume coming in
with all the volume traded here. There was a lot of traffic at that area, so I'm expecting, if not already here,
significant support at the 47 level and then, of course, at the level where Elon Musk
was buying in here, $30,000 to $35,000. That is my personal worst case scenario. I personally think and I said that,
before we recorded, I would be surprised. I think we are not going to go
below the $33K level, the Elon Musk purchasing price. We have so much confidence at that level.
So many institutions, so many big people,
directly following him thereafter. I personally don't think we are going to make
this smart money unprofitable. – Let's wait and see what happens here.
– Yeah. Something which is good news– I wanted to go over to the good news
for everyone here. – I think everyone watching is a bull here, right?
– Right. So we have the M pattern. The M pattern is in and of itself
a very bearish pattern. We broke below this rising wedge here.
This is good. We already got a bounce here
at the M pattern neckline. So far, we didn't break down, and getting a bounce,
there's always something good. If we are going down for a retest,
well, I really want to– I want this one to hold because basically
the measurable price target of this one, I will tell you also how to trade it, would be at the $45,000 level,
so below the significant support. So if you are trading it– I personally
don't short Bitcoin in a bull market. I just don't do it. We don't do it either.
It's just too much volatility. Too many questions.
You just win more when you're
betting long in a bull market. Exactly. And then maybe 2 out of 10
trades are not profitable. – Whatever, right?
– Yeah. I mean, that's why I'm just not doing it. And sometimes missing out on a short opportunity
equals not missing out on eight long opportunities, so. But if you were to trade it,
I will trade the 4-hourly candle close below and then a confirmation of the breakdown. It could be a profitable trade. I'm staying away from that. So far, we are actually bouncing from here. If Bitcoin manages within that week, because the weekly confirmation, the weekly
close below, would be the nail in the coffin, for me, to get back into that pattern, then I think we are back in that bullish trajectory, and I could still imagine a breakout
towards the upside, but we need to go back in that week,
I'm very certain about that, all the way to the price level of $82,000.
Right now, Bitcoin is in a bearish narrative. We broke down. And this bearish narrative is actually
supported here by this parabolic trend. This is the 4-hourly candles, but let me go
over to the daily to round it up here. And if we are going on the daily candles,
this is the parabolic trend on the linear chart, and we actually put that in all the way
back from the $9,000 level. And we got multiple beautiful touch points here. Now, for the first time since
actually nearly one year, we broke it. The first time since one year,
we had a daily close below.
– And this is certainly something to look out for.
– Yeah. It's not the end of the bull market. In the last bull market,
we had multiple parabolic trends. Once we broke,
we retraced and formed a new one. So, of course, it's not the reason to freak out here,
but it is something to acknowledge. And it is something where we have to say, "Well, at least in that week, we have to
get back into that parabolic trend, otherwise we can get ready here
for a multiday or maybe few weeks downwards-sideways consolidation." This is my take for Bitcoin right now. So this is why this week will decide
are we going to see $47K, $33K? Or are we going to go up in the immediate
short term to $82K? No matter what happens, we can trade it.
The bullish scenario I would only trade
if we are going above the support here, above the resistance. It would be an entry target above $67,000. But once we go above $67,000, honestly, I would personally bet, and it's not financial advice, with a long position, with a strong long
position, on a move to $82,000. So right now, it's the tipping point.
It's crossroads for Bitcoin. Yeah. Well, and we've been looking on my channel at a lot
of the top of the market indicators on Glassnode, and nothing indicates that
we're near the top of the market, so, you know, when I'm looking here at this chart, and I'm looking at your bottom trendline there, I mean, there have been a few times,
not as dramatic as what we just saw, but there have been a few times
where we have gone below the line.
And if you look at those points, each one of those,
we had a very strong bounce back. So that's what I'm hoping,
what I'm anticipating. I'm hoping that this is going to look
kind of like those other two spots where it dipped down below
and came back up hard. So I'm looking for bullish entries. I'm certainly not looking to short the market. I don't think we're at the top of the market. The one scenario I would ask everybody to keep
in mind is if you go back to 2013, 2014, during that bull market, we certainly
did have a kind of a mini bear market within the two bull markets
of that halving cycle. So I certainly hope that's not what
we're going to see this time, but with all the uncertainty on the stock market
right now and the greater world economy, it could be something we see. Well, what are your thoughts on that? Absolutely, man.
I think, on this, we actually agree.
We talked about that scenario before. I have the chart here. And here, we can see what
you're actually talking about. It's also what I think. I think the first run-up, whether it's over now
or at $100,000, is this institutional run up. Then we have another liquidity event
for the last institutions. And the last run will probably,
if we are going to follow that trajectory, this retail run towards the upside to potentially
hundreds of thousands of US dollars.
This is the exact same scenario
I'm personally looking at, where I think this is the most likely one. But now, I think the immediate
short term is very important. And it's very important to consider here. Something you talked about Glassnode
is this chart here. I wanted to show it. Let me see. Yeah, I'm in. This is the 10-year supply actually, the supply which was active
the last time, 10 years ago. So 2011, basically. And this is the smartest money ever. And this statistic started in January 2019,
of course, because Bitcoin is from January 2009. And ever since then, it's going up. – Obviously, right?
– Yeah. With every day, we have more addresses
taken into consideration. But the bottom line is – it's just never going down.
– Yeah. So, none of these addresses is selling. Of course, it's going up, but at least we should
see some spikes towards the downside. The bottom line is everyone who bought before,
and there's of course the Satoshi wallet, of course, also lost coins, but there are many people including
Davinci who bought in 2011, those addresses are just not selling.
And this is interesting for me. We just had a big spike here towards
the upside at the $47,000 levels where even more of these addresses
are taken into consideration. The smartest money, the big OGs,
the nerds, they aren't selling. So you have to decide do you want to be doing
what the Wall Street Journal readers are doing? What the FOX readers are doing? Or do you want to be doing what the OG guys
who understood Bitcoin 10 years ago are doing? I'm personally doing what they are
doing with my HODLing portfolio. With my trading portfolio, of course, I mean,
I have my trade on Bybit here, $500,000 in profit. The one on Phemex, over $2 million. It was more a few days ago, but these are long-term trades. On my long-term trades, I'm behaving
very similar to my HODLing portfolio.
hedge your bets. Put in a stop loss. Long term, nothing has changed for me so far. Yeah, I think that's a great point. And the one other thing I would
kind of tell everybody is this. We know all the institutional money is here. And so, sometimes, the charts are going
to be what they're going to be. But the fact is we're going to see
more smoke and mirrors, you know? More interesting action I believe based on the fact
that all of these big institutions are getting in, and they're used to being able to manipulate markets.
So, you know, this could certainly be a bear trap. It could certainly be a fakeout at this point because like I said, we don't have anything
to indicate that this is the top of the market if you look at all our traditional
market indicators. So be careful trading out there. You know, make sure you guys
have good stop losses, but also I believe there's a lot of good opportunity
for trades on Bybit to get made here. So, Chris, as always, thank you
for coming on the channel. I love it when you come on, show us some TA,
give us a different perspective. Everybody, make sure to subscribe
to his channel. It's down below.
Anything you want to leave us with today, Chris? Man, I'm just always happy to
come back to your channel. Every single time you upload the video,
the first moment, I go into the comments section. I just love everyone sharing their thoughts,
sharing their love. It's a beautiful community. This is what's crypto about. I think we have, like, only smart people here. It's very different to other niches. So I'm very happy every single time to talk
about that on my channel, on your channel. So thank you so much for having me, man. Yeah, definitely. You guys can check me out in the next day
or two on Chris's channel as well. So make sure go subscribe. Guys, that's all we got today. Make sure to drop us some comments down below.
Be blessed. BitBoy out..