BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTION For the End of 2020 | it’s Getting Interesting!!

hey what's up guys since october bitcoin increased 
by more than 60 in just 46 days in this video i   will try to estimate where bitcoin is likely 
to end up by the end of the december as well   as the end of 2020 then Raoul Paul will give his 
own bitcoin price prediction by the end of 2020   before we start i just want to show you 
something very important these scammers take   the [ __ ] to a whole different level they start 
to impersonate me with the fake aimstone accounts   i tried to delete those comments as fast 
as possible but i'm still not a robot so   some of those comments might be left behind to 
distinguish between my real comments from their   fake impersonated comments is very simple when 
i comment you will see a grey shaded area around   aimstone name and when fake aimstrom comments 
you will not see the gray shaded area which   means this is not me stay safe out there and when 
you see those comebacks just keep reporting them   listen up guys this might be the most 
important thing you ever heard as an investor   did you know you can invest and 
keep all your profits completely tax   i trust capital is the world's first 2047 platform 
for trading cryptocurrencies and precious metals   inside of your ira or 401k they have almost 
5 stars trading on trustpilot which goes to   show how happy the customers are if you do not 
know much about retirement's accounts you can   request one of the free guides to learn more for 
example if you open the roth ira and invest five   thousand dollars into bitcoin and it grows to 
fifty thousand dollars to keep all the profits   no taxes there are three ways to open an account 
first start a new one from the scratch this can be   traditional ira or roth ira or two you can roll 
over retirement accounts from an old employer   or 3.

You can transfer an existing ira that you 
currently have with another investment firm if you   want to learn more click the link in my bio and go 
to their website you can also schedule a free call   they will give you one-on-one personal assistant 
to help you to learn more about their platform   let's try to estimate precisely where 
bitcoin price might be by the end of 2020   more specifically let's take a look how bit 
can perform in the month of december since   2013. i have made very similar video to this 
one before i would highly recommend watching   that video if you haven't seen it yet i analyzed 
bitcoin price by the end of the october this video   was posted on october 10 2020 that was actually a 
pretty good call i did not have any crystal ball   in front of me nor i do not see the future i just 
used historical analysis to estimate where the   price could have been by the end of the month 
during that time bitcoin was at around 11 000   and according to those calculations i estimated 
that there is a high probability that bitcoin will   finish october around 14 000 and if you look at 
the bigger price this is precisely where we end up   month of october slightly less than 14k now let's 
try to do similar math by the end of december as   well as the end of 2020.

By no means it's a 
guarantee that bitcoin will reach that price   target by the end of the year you should take this 
analysis with the bit skepticism and the grain of   salt we will only rely on the bitcoin historical 
performance for the month of december then we'll   try to extrapolate with precise probability 
where we might end up in this upcoming month   we have a decent chunk of historical data since 
2013. in 2013 of december bitcoin was actually   down the reason is because in early few months 
bitcoin spiked and surpassed one thousand dollars   which was the top of the bull market i'm not going 
to be biased no i will cherry pick any data points   i will just say it how it is in december 1st 2013 
bitcoin was trading at about 900 a coin by the end   of the month december 31st btc dropped slightly 
till 770 a coin so technically btc dropped by 14   in december 2013. let's move on to the next year 
december 2014. we had very similar situation   actually we were still declining from the 2013 
bear market in december 1st 2014 one btc was   trading at around 370 by the end of the month it 
dropped till 320 dollars so that would be 13 drop   in december 2014.

Let's move on to the next year 
that is december 2015. december 2015 was actually   positive month for bitcoin in december first 
bitcoin was trading at around 350 a coin by the   end of the month it increased still 440 dollars 
that would be 26 increase for december 2015.   not bad at all let's move on december 2016 
was actually even better month for bitcoin   at the beginning of december bitcoin was trading 
at around 750 a coin and by the end of the month   it skyrocketed still one thousand dollars it 
continued to go up but i will not take those   data points into the account since i'm not 
trying to be biased towards any data points   so i will try to do this as fair as possible 
from 750 still one thousand 000 that would be 33   increase okay not bad at all let's continue 
december 2017 december 2017 was also very   profitable month for bitcoin this was actually 
the pick of the crazy 2017 bull market run in   december 1st 2017 bitcoin is slightly under 10 
000 by the end of the month it was around 15 000   so we have another positive month that would be 
50 increase during the december 2017. since then   bitcoin went into the long-lasting bear market 
however it was not that bad during the december   of 2018.

By that time bitcoin deflated most of its 
team away in december 1st 2018 bitcoin is trading   at around 4 thousand dollars and by the end of 
the month it was still under 4 thousand dollars   so btc was flat for the month let's move on 
till the next year exactly the same thing   happened in 2019 in december 1st ptc was at 
around 7.3 thousand dollars and by the end of   the month it was still fluctuating around that 
price range so we will call it flat once again   let's just summarize bitcoin price performance 
during the month of december since 2013. december   2013 bitcoin is down by 14 december 2014 bitcoin 
is down by 13 december 2015 bitcoin is up by 26   december 2016 because up by 33 december 2017 
bitcoins up by 50 percent and it was actually   the best december for bitcoin for the past seven 
years so far december 2018 bitcoin is flat so   we're just going to put zero december 2019 becomes 
flat once again or we can call it zero percent   so what do we have here we have two negative one 
three positive and three neutral let's find an   average we have minus 14 minus 13 plus 26 plus 
33 plus 50 plus 0 plus 0 everything divided by 7   and we get 15 we cannot calculate probability 
because we have those two zeros in the data set   let's just eliminate those two zeros for simple 
calculations if we eliminate those two zeros   then we get two out of five are negative and 
three out of five are positive which means   in the month of december 60 of the time bitcoin 
finished the month in green meaning with positive   rate of returns and another 40 percent of the time 
bitcoin spent in threat meaning negative territory   this is still not the beginning of december 
just yet we still have another two weeks   however if bitcoin finishes this month at around 
sixteen thousand dollars and will increase by   fifteen percent this will put bitcoin price at 
around eighteen thousand four hundred dollars   not so bad but i have a reason to believe that 
we might say bitcoin higher than that due to   the current economic unrest and the number of 
great catalysts that might move btc price to the   new all-time highs if you reach new all-time 
high in 2020 i will not be surprised at all   however 2021 will not only just be big but it's 
going to be huge it's not just big it's huge   now let's take a look what role paul has to say 
about bitcoin in its recent interview the number   of those bitcoins are restricted by the formula 
which can never be changed why can it never be   changed because it's not centralized so it can't 
be anthony saying well we're going to change the   number today it's actually run on about 10 
000 different nodes and all of these miners   and it's all recorded on this thing called 
the blockchain so nobody can change anything   so it's set in stone there's impossible to 
change the number of coins or the algorithm   and that's what makes it interesting 
unlike gold for example where you can get   and what we've just seen in russia this huge 
fine so suddenly there's a new supply of gold   that's what happened that that's what blew 
up um spain when they discovered the americas   they brought all the gold back they thought 
they were rich but they devalued everything   because there's an excess supply of gold you can't 
do it with bitcoin it's the only asset where it's   completely knowable we live in a world you and 
i of supply and demand that's what we understand   well there is no change in supply you've got 
a fixed supply commodity it never changes   which is the same with art and a lot of people 
watching this will understand there is only one   monet lilies or whatever it is and so that's why 
they trade at huge premiums right so bitcoin is   this it's like having a monet that's fractional so 
it goes down to eight decimal places and instantly   transferable and storable so that starts to sound 
like very interesting money okay so so you're a   big bull i mean i i listen to your podcast and so 
you know you see this going to a million dollars a   coin i mean is that fair for me to say that or i 
don't want to yes oh no i mean better exaggerate   yes so again let's look at it in the terms of 
institutional investors it's currently a 200   billion market cap it's basically a mid-size s p 
company at this stage so it's meaningless really   but if you look at the distribution of 
price returns and how skewed it's been   to the upside the ability for this to go up 50x is 
normal i mean every time we have this the the big   bull cycles which are driven by a reduction in 
supply that's mathematically derived in advance   what we find is bitcoin goes up a lot because the 
demand remains steady or goes up and supply falls   so to get to a million dollars that's pretty 
straightforward and you're about a trillion   dollar market cap then or ten sorry ten trillion 
dollar market cap ten trillion dollar market cap   in terms of an asset that's a reasonable size it's 
not huge gold alone is an 11 trillion market cap   so if it's a real asset it's still in price 
discovery mode we haven't actually got to   what's its real market cap so that's what gives it 
this ridiculous skewed upside in addition to it it   also operates under metcalfe's law because 
it's a distributed platform essentially the   more participants that become in it the more it's 
worth right so you've got it looks like technology   and money combined and it's that these kind 
of things we've never seen before we've never   dealt with an asset like this which is why it's 
been the best performing asset of all time the   best performing asset 10 years and five years 
well well you had a spill i think it traded   at twenty thousand and three thousand in the 
five-year period of time and now it's back to   15 i guess or frustrating and so what do you 
think caused that spill well so the spill   again it's actually very cyclical like all 
commodities we understand that commodities   tend to be cyclical so what happens is it's driven 
by the mathematical formula called the harvey well   where they harv the mining supply to make it more 
difficult as you start getting closer to the 21   million coins that make it more and more difficult 
over time in terms of mining the number of coins   that have been made i'm not sure exactly where 
we are but i think we've got about we've mined   about 19 million there's very little left okay 
so it becomes incredibly hard to mine the rest   so you need more technology to do it so as 
we do that you get this period where you get   speculative boom because demand starts bringing 
more people in and then after a while the demand   you know some the people tend to sellers and it's 
just a cyclical phenomena and it usually crashes   significantly 90 i mean you have to have do you 
think you think you're going to see another crash   15 to 3 000 no i don't i think how the price 
will evolve this time we're in the next wave   up the halving happened in may that chances 
are we probably hit something like a hundred to   two hundred thousand on this wave which will be 
probably by the end of 2021 2022 and then we'll   correct somewhat but there's a difference coming 
now don't forget this was driven by retail this is   the only asset that's been driven by retail from 
the ground up by its very distribute distributed   nature but the next time around the institutions 
are going to be in the investment banks   the asset managers the raas the hedge funds and 
that's going to give much more price stability   so the volatility of bitcoin itself is going 
to collapse so you know we won't get a 90 draw   down maybe get a 50 well that's normal in terms 
of most asset prices when they have a cyclical   i also do not think we will see another 
bitcoin crash from the current price   till three thousand dollars just like we have seen 
back in 2018.

The reason is because there is just   too much demand for bitcoin there is literally no 
weak hands left in this market if there are some   left it must be very small fraction most of them 
got wrecked in bear market back in 2018 and they   do not want to participate it anymore smart money 
operates differently they have long time horizon   and most importantly they have lots of capital 
to take bitcoin to unprecedented levels however   now let's take a quick look what real paul thinks 
where bitcoin might end up 2020 let's take a look   look this is why bitcoin's now up 126 this 
year i keep talking about it it's eating   every other asset alive it's eating its lunch and 
spitting it out because it is such an attractive   hard asset for an environment like this so it's 
up 126 percent gold's up 26 the nasdaq up 35   and there's nothing else close i'm looking through 
the list of everything every market in the world   i mean there's nowhere close gold miners up 
30 it and bitcoin is just accelerating now   you know it looks to me like it's going to get 
through 20 000 by year end before it has some sort   of correction but this is an unstoppable force if 
you take what i've just told you about next year   slower growth more central bank action because 
there's not enough st fiscal stimulus then let's   say the economy is bad then the fiscal stimulus 
that comes is going to have to be gigantic   because they have to catch up for all the physical 
stimulus they haven't done so we've got enormous   printing of money enormous stimulus and that is 
the best environment in the world for bitcoin   gold will do fine too now everybody will say to me 
yeah but if the stock market falls will they fall   well bitcoin's decoupled from all of that gold 
hasn't really has a bit i think it will decouple   but bitcoin's decoupled from all of this stuff 
like it's correlated to the nasdaq it's correlated   to the dollar bitcoin's now just a rocket 
ship to the moon because it is the life raft   to save you from this mess that we've got going on 
he thinks bitcoin will reach 20 thousand dollars   by the end of this year totally a realistic 
number to see bitcoin reaching new all-time   high in this year i will not be surprised as i 
mentioned earlier let me know what do you guys   think where bitcoin will end up by the end of 
the december as well as the end of 2020 leave   your thoughts in the comments section below smash 
that like button and subscribe for more videos

You May Also Like