Bitcoin Price Prediction | 2013 Cycle vs 2021 Cycle

bitcoin's next move is very important because 
it's going to tell us where's the overall   crypto market heading to next and this is exactly 
what we're going to discuss today so stay tuned hey everyone welcome back to the channel 
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without further ado let's get down to it if you have watched any of my previous bitcoin 
analysis i've talked multiple times about how the   current cycle is trying to mirror what happened 
back in 2013 cycle and that's exactly what has   been going on if you look at the current cycle 
of 2021 we have reached the peak on the month   of april 2021 and back in 2013 we have done 
the exact same thing so this was the peak   around april 2013 which was followed by 
two bearish candles two monthly red candles   and that's exactly what happened in the 2021 cycle 
so the month of may was bearish and the month of   june was bearish as well and then when we go to 
july we'll find that both 2021 and 2013 cycle   we have got a bullish candles they are different 
but both were polished so in the 2013 we got the   hammer candle over here which was a bullish sign 
and in 2021 we got an engulfing candle as well   both were followed by a second bullish month as 
well which was the month of august and now we're   in the month of september where we are making 
sideways consolidation and that's the exact thing   that happened back in the year 2013. 
now in the year 2013 after september   was finished we had a strong run all the way till 
november so in october we had a big green candle   and in november we had the biggest scandal 
of that cycle which ended the cycle here   however it's very important to notice that before 
starting this bull run in 2013 we got a dip over   here which which is represented by this week and 
this is very important to keep in mind because   we're going to look at this on the weekly 
chart next so this is bitcoin's weekly chart   and as you can see currently in this cycle 
we're going in a sideways consolidation which   was the exact same scenario that happened in 
the 2013 cycle however we got a big dip in   the year 2013 before continuing our uptrend and 
this dip is represented here in this long wick   candle now looking back at the history this was 
supposed to happen before continuing the uptrend   because if this drop over here did not happen we 
wouldn't have completed our corrective structure   and the corrective structure was technically three 
waves so after reaching the peak over here we have   dropped down and we did the second corrective wave 
and then we did the third one before continuing   all the way up so these one two three waves 
were the exact correction that we had in 2013.   now this is very important because it's going to 
help tell us what's going to happen next in here   now there's a major difference between the current 
cycle and 2013 cycle and this difference is   that the correction we had in 2013 was a bit 
complicated it was not a simple one two three wave   correction because usually the one two three wave 
correction looks like this however because of all   this volatility in the middle so we had a single 
wave down and the second wave was three waves by   itself so it was one up and then one down and then 
another one up which eventually we will consider   as one piece and then we had the last drop which 
was this week wick over here then we continued   going up so eventually this complicated correction 
is still a three wave correction however the   middle wave was divided into three waves now this 
is not the exact same case in this cycle because   we already had one wave down and the second wave 
is a simple single wave so what's happening right   now is that we are waiting for the third and the 
last wave of the correction to complete and this   wave is going to be down so as soon as this 
last wave is completed we're gonna resume our   uptrend from here so we have formed um what 
we call a contracting flat which consists of   one wave another smaller wave and then another 
smaller wave before continuing our uptrend so   the important point to highlight over here 
if 2021 cycle is going to exactly mirror   cycle after we finish a week or two of 
consolidation we are likely to get a drop down and then continue up from there and this is 
only if we're going to exactly mirror what   happened at this point over here however this is 
not necessary so we might drop down a little bit   and then continue going up from here so we are not 
necessarily to get the exact same candle over here   which was a one week of strong drop down and then 
correction to the upside so we formed this candle   over here and now let's go to the daily chart and 
see how the picture is looking on the daily chart   so as i said on the weekly chart we have 
already completed two out of the three   corrective ways this was one and this was 
the second one and now we're on the third one   the important question here is how far down is 
this going to go now while this is very hard   to tell it is worth noticing that it is not likely 
that we drop from this point and go all the way to   the 30 000 range and that's because we have 
tested the 0.618 fibonacci level and that acted as   a strong support which means that the last 
and the third wave is likely going to be   small but how far is this one going to go it is 
still hard to tell so it could be this drop only   so it could have ended here and we are already 
on our way back up or it could it could go down   a little bit further and then continue up from 
here or it could keep on consolidating sideways   and then drop at one point as happened in 2013 
within a single week then continue going up   from here so all of those options are on the 
table but which one of them is going to happen   it is still hard to tell but if we will take 
the 50 and the 200 exponential moving averages   and take these two as reference points so as you 
can see the 50 ema has been holding itself so far   so if this one manages to keep holding the 
price so we're not likely to see the price going   further down than its current levels however if 
this one breaks and the price go down further we   have the 200 ema which is not so far away but 
it might be strong enough to hold the price   and we might see the price also breaking down 
below this point a little bit but it's going   to bounce right away in all cases we should 
expect some kind of sideway movement and a   drop down at one point that's the most likely 
scenario to happen if we are going to mirror   the cycle of 2013 but that's not gonna take 
so long so it's gonna be a short drop down   and then we're gonna continue going up from 
there so i would like to hear your opinions   on this do you think that bitcoin is set and ready 
to continue going up further from here or do you   believe that we're gonna have one more drop down 
let me know what you think in the comments below   this was it for bitcoin until next 
video stay safe and see you later

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