i still think we have the potential 
for a super cycle a lot of people got   it's funny as soon as the market dips one 
direction people get really bearish and   they're like oh what an absurd idea called a super 
cycle i'm like well this looks like 2013 and that   i would say you know 2013 applied to now would be 
my definition of a super cycle like a mega cycle   um like a super cycle in terms of like either 
a longer bull run than we expected or a much   more intense bull run than we expected and you 
know if we go 10x from here we're looking at   we're looking at like 400 000 bitcoin that's 
what happened in 2013 it went from 100 to 1200   you know even 12x so i would say that kind of 
puts us squarely in sort of super cycle territory   because at 400 000 bitcoin i mean 
that's basically flipping gold all right welcome back everybody to altcoin daily 
my name is aaron joined with my brother austin   and joining us today a friend of the channel dan 
held he is a legend in the space great reputation   been through multiple cycles right now 
he is the growth lead at one of the top   cryptocurrency exchanges kraken dan held how 
are you doing today doing great we're still in   a bitcoin bull run so i'm happy all right good 
that's what i want to hear yeah i know you just   recently moved to texas uh how's everything going 
with that and how's everything going with kraken   yeah so i'm a texas native i spent nine years 
out in san francisco it was time to return   back to the homeland it's uh it feels great out 
here it's san francisco is a beautiful beautiful   place um you know gorgeous scenery up and and 
the north of it in terms of napa and we're in   headlands and you've got tahoe but i do miss 
going to the pool and in austin you can just   you know your apartment complex your house there's 
a pool always nearby and it feels kind of fun to   just go swimming once in a while so it feels like 
summer again i haven't felt summer in nine years   you know in san francisco there's no swimming pool 
anywhere and so yeah it feels really good it feels   good to be home loving loving the text max loving 
the pool seeing so yeah it feels good to be back   and then uh on the crack in front 
or you could say what's cracking   but so insert laugh track yeah i'm 33 
now i guess i'm turning dad mode so   um kraken's doing really really well i don't know 
if you guys heard but we just hit 2 000 employees   which is pretty big yeah i mean i remember 
when jesse you know back eight years ago you   know jesse and kind of a small crew you know the 
rigid origins of crack and i wasn't there i wasn't   working there at the time but i knew jesse for 
that long and uh it's crazy to see how big the   company's become i think it's a great thing i mean 
kraken's moving along super fast there's a lot   of initiatives that we're doing on the marketing 
front which i work on you know we've we're scaling   out the team we've got a ton of great projects 
uh you know it's you're gonna you're gonna see   kraken and more you know on the marketing 
side you're gonna see kraken in more places   you're going to see kraken's name mentioned more 
often and i think that's great because kraken is   that og sort of culture i think out of all 
the exchanges kraken represents that the most   you know we're the only one to ever do proof of 
reserves and jesse is uh you know he's pretty   outspoken how he feels about regulations so yeah 
i'm super happy they're really happy to see what   we're developing there and what we're building and 
i think you're gonna see a lot of cool things come   out of the company that's awesome looking forward 
to it uh now dan has a great youtube channel   that's linked down below i encourage everybody 
to go subscribe to him he releases a video   every week it's not so much news but more like big 
picture evergreen stuff so you can always return   to any old video it's a bitcoin focused youtube 
channel make sure you subscribe to that but let's   kick it right off dan how are you feeling about 
bitcoin and cryptocurrency these days what's your   take on the current state of the market yeah 
so this is my third cycle i was there in 2013   2017 and 2021.

This feels like 2013. we have a 
big bull run happen in the early part of the year   um around march april may things kind of fall you 
know come down a little bit we have a little bit   of a retrace things go sideways and i think that's 
the most torturous part of these sort of cycles   is the sideways action is it a bear market 
is it a bull run no one knows you know no   one truly knows i can't predict the future and i 
don't want to pretend that i can um but this does   feel like 2013 where we've got that intense part 
in the beginning sideways chop action and then   later in the year we have a second wave so it 
feels like that i think you know structurally   we've got all the things in place for a bull 
run if you look at will clemente if you look at   willy woo's on chain data everything looks super 
healthy there and more an indicative of a bull   run when we look at price action this would be a 
very very mild bull run if it topped out at 65k   so i think there's a lot more room to run there 
and then back on the macro side like structurally   we've got every single institutional player in 
the space going in the mainstream financial world   going oh we're thinking about buying some bitcoin 
i mean that's incredible right so i think 65 is   is that first mini peak on a bigger bull run this 
year now again this is my opinion i have no idea   what the price is going to do i have staked as 
a gigantic portion of my net worth on bitcoin so   if it doesn't work out you know i'm certainly on 
the other uh you know i certainly will feel it   but all of the signs point to that the bull run 
isn't over that we should see another you know   sometime in the fall or winter another big bull 
run again and dan be real with us did that 50   correction scare you at the time 
i've huddled so long man it's it's uh   i look i knew we weren't going to retrace 
down to 20.

You know people were calling for   20s they're like oh it's gonna hit 20 again i'm 
like it's never done that in the previous cycles   if you're calling for 20 then everyone else is 
calling for 25 then other people are calling for   29 and what we saw was like a brief capitulation 
right at 29 28 30-ish and then bounced right back   so it's always it's funny like i i don't actively 
trade i huddle and this is why i huddle i'm not   very good at day trading or picking the tops or 
bottoms i'm good at hotline and hodling takes a   lot of perseverance not to be tempted to go trade 
it right like it's it you're fighting this fear   and greed and so i think it's a good 
exercise of when you feel that pit of fear   that that like absolute panic 
that's probably the best time to buy   now i'm not actively trading out there you 
know i'm just hodling and i can feel that   i still feel it you just let the feeling pass 
through you you know i don't think anyone's   an emotionless hodler right you still feel these 
things maybe just not as intense as you did when   you first got in but when you feel that you're 
like wait a second why am i feeling this fear   has anything fundamentally changed and then you 
go well nothing's really changed bitcoin is still   being bitcoin and there's no big big event and 
then um you know same one on the other side when   things feel elated that it could just keep going 
up for forever which what we felt like in q1 right   you know if you're actively trading 
this that might be a good indication   of when to sell when everyone's like 
it'll go on forever they'll never stop   and so um it's so interesting too on the bull run 
side so we have these news events that occur right   like negative news and positive news during a bull 
run or bear market and during a bear market the   negative news punishes you know the price downward 
but the positive news doesn't do anything but then   in a bull run it's the opposite right like um in 
a bull run positive news pushes it up but negative   news has no impact and we just saw that happen and 
i've seen this so many times during these cycles   and that to me is a really strong read that we're 
in a bull run we saw a u.s congress try to pass   legislation that was really onerous and that 
would be very negative for bitcoin and crypto   like that that's objective this isn't a subjective 
like that is a very negative bad thing to happen   the market didn't care it was crazy i mean the 
market did not care at all bitcoin didn't dip i   mean there might have been a one percent dip or 
something but in bitcoin world that's nothing   that to me read that very strongly we're in a 
bull run people brushed off the negative news   positive news pushes up the market and there seems 
to be a really strong bid there you know i feel   that every little dip people are buying up i think 
bitcoin had the what was it one of the longest uh   you know longest streaks uh ever of uh 
green candles like green daily candles   so that that really screams to me bull 
run in that there's a lot of people who   are waiting on the sidelines and around 30k 
seemed like the good price to get back in   and talk to me a little bit more about these 
fundamentals because will clemente we've had   him on the channel willy woo we've referenced this 
stuff we are showing our audience these on-chain   fundamentals all the time but it's almost like 
they don't they they're not sure if they should   believe but you've been watching this stuff 
for a long time could you speak a little more   it's kind of like you're painting a picture right 
you've got you've got on chain fundamentals you've   got liquidity and other things you can look 
at you've got news stories and and feeling   like the fear and greed these all paint you 
a picture of what the market is saying now   this doesn't necessarily predict what the market 
will become but if this market if the snapshot of   right now is representative of historical markets 
what we're seeing on chain is really good news   and some of those metrics would be like are the 
old hodlers still hodling or are they selling   typically at the peak of the bull runs you see all 
the older coins start to move to exchanges and be   sold and that makes sense right someone's huddled 
for a long time they're wanting to take some money   off the table you know and you start to see a lot 
of selling pressure so you see a lot of like older   coins become that were formally dormant become 
activated move to an exchange and sell and be sold   and they're not seeing that right now and so i 
think that that's a really strong indication that   we've got a bull run ahead of us now there's 
also more fundamental reasons why that's the   case you're like okay cool who cares about these 
old hodlers how about the new ones well these old   hodlers have more coin and if they're not willing 
to sell then that means there's less coin on the   exchange for folks to go sell which means that 
if demand stays the same and there's less selling   pressure then the price goes up and that basically 
the largest hodlers of bitcoin they're not wanting   to sell right now which means that there's a lot 
less supply it's a basic supply demand mechanic   and so i think with will clemente's data they were 
looking at like very early like very fresh cohorts   of like three six twelve months bitcoiner uh 
hodlers selling coin during this this uh downward   trend and that showed more speculator types 
rather than like long-term huddlers when the   long-term hotlers come out and start moving coins 
then that starts to indicate that the market's   getting hot and that they believe that you know 
some of the the peak might be around the corner   yeah and that is interesting because actually 
i look back in 2017 the the old hodler started   sounding like kind of even near the middle 
of the 2017 bull run right up until the peak   and what you said is true we haven't really seen 
those long-term modelers sell much of anything   at this point so so yeah pretty bullish but um 
yeah there's a lot of other metrics as well i'm   not i'm not going to pretend that i'm super fluid 
knowing all these different metrics but you've got   various other ones like a number of new entities 
on chain so some sort of methodology to calculate   not just new addresses but new people or new 
unique individuals and those numbers look super   healthy um and then we've also got like account 
creations at kraken and coinbase right like   the account creations haven't this still very very 
strong i can't give exact numbers but things are   super strong growth wise um and then coinbase of 
course is public so that information is well known   we're still seeing very much bull market 
activities here in bull market sentiment around   like people are creating accounts getting ready 
to trade trading and or getting ready to trade so   the uh i would say that retail enthusiasm is still 
there it's not as strong as q2 or q1 but it's   still very much there that's what we're feeling 
too i think uh in in youtube land uh but take   us through each bull run not not the cycle but 
each specific you know the bull runs in bitcoin   usually lasts only around a year there's one in 
2013 one in 2017.

Now we're in the middle of one   right now and you've been through them all how has 
each one been different in your opinion and what   are the similarities that you see in each one yeah 
2013 was really special so that was my first bull   run and it went from 10 to 260 in march 2013 back 
down to 100 sideways chopped then around october   november went from 100 to 1200 and by by the end 
of december what was unique about that one is   there's so many structural problems so silk road 
got shut down in october people forget that i mean   that was a big deal like we thought what if that 
was the only demand for bitcoin we didn't know   there wasn't on-chain analysis there's no there 
were no blogs there were no youtube channels   talking about on-chain data at all so we weren't 
sure like oh man you know will demand come back um   mount gox got shut down too a couple times it had 
its dwala accounts frozen in the u.s and i think   that was like july august and then by february 
14 i think they had like fully shut down or like   halted withdrawals completely there was a lot of 
structural problems i mean mount cox was like this   giant you know they were 90 of trading volume and 
they were super rickety you know and uh we're just   lucky exchange companies like coinbase didn't 
get trapped in that coinbase wasn't in exchange   back then they were just a brokerage they created 
gdax to remember and then gdax became coinbase pro   people forget that like coinbase wasn't always in 
exchange they were sourcing coins from bitstamp   fortunately but what if they had been sourcing 
coins from cox like we didn't know that either   i don't think they publicized that so gox 
was a huge structural problem we had silk   road getting shut down that shut down a lot of 
demand we weren't sure if our doors were going   to get kicked in honestly there wasn't a lot of 
regulatory clearance in terms of like what we   were allowed to do now of course the bitcoin 
it doesn't the bitcoin network doesn't care   we still weren't sure you know being public 
faces of this new movement if we were gonna   have our doors kicked in and then be like okay 
well we're gonna clamp down on this we understand   what bitcoin is and we we think it's a threat 
so that was very much the vibe in 13.

It's like   very like wild west 2017 um you know in early 
17 is when i think bitcoin broke i think that's   when bitcoin broke a thousand yeah i think that's 
when bitcoin broke a thousand was like january 17.   and then that year was just kind of a continuous 
surge with some little drawdowns um and of course   that one was was you've had the huge moment of 
like icos being the narrative i mean there was   i was in silicon valley and literally the word ico 
was being whispered every single place you went to   everywhere and people were inserting icos and 
tokens into everything i worked at uber at the   time and we put together a blockchain strike force 
team to talk about how blockchain technology could   be implemented at uber and you know we basically 
this was in 17 you know and we basically walk   away from it going we don't think it's useful for 
uber at all but people were just like can we put   a blockchain on it was the vibe then and there 
was just so much froth with all of the tokens   that it was just insane right i mean it was 
it was kind of it was kind of mania i would   say like the vibe was just mania because there's 
so many coins hundred x seen a thousand nexting   that yeah it was just mania what i would say 
would be the vibe uh 2021 i think is more serious   like kind of a serious tone to it mixed with a 
little bit of absurdity as well serious because   now it's finally mainstream you've got one of the 
wealthiest people in the world elon musk who's   into it you've got his companies you've got other 
big billionaires and mainstream investors and   hedge funds and and insurance companies and some 
some sovereigns you know so uh venezuela talking   about adopting bitcoin bitcoins entered the 
final arena the biggest the biggest game and um   so things are a little bit more serious in terms 
of the stakes and in terms of like the narrative   um i would say bitcoin like content-wise like 
there wasn't a lot of content before 2017.

Like   you've got myself and many others and y'all who 
have great youtube channels and podcasts and long   form content and there's even like documentaries 
now there really wasn't much of that before 2017   it was kind of a lonely existence when you were 
a bitcoin holler like i went to the having party   at bitco down not san mateo i think down in 
palo alto for 2016 having there's like 15 of us   it was yeah it wasn't like as big of a celebration 
like 2020 where like the having then was a big   deal there was you know even websites dedicated 
there wasn't even like a website for the having   back in 16.

Like i don't remember one i'm 
sure there was one but i don't remember one   so 2021 it's big bitcoin is big there's 
hundreds of millions of people that use it um   at the same time there's the absurdity of the 
market as well which i thought was going to go   away in the 2021 cycle but i was very very wrong 
which was in dogecoin or something right like   you know retail sentiment to speculate 
on different assets was more than i ever   expected um so yeah i would say that that 
was probably the more surprising thing but   you know crypto is now mainstream bitcoin is now 
mainstream and so i think that's the very distinct   difference between the last you know 17 bull run 
in this one and speaking of history repeating and   rhyming and you kind of already said this but it 
was very frothy back in 2017 with adding a coin   adding a blockchain in a lot of ways we are seeing 
that same froth with defy and nfts most of it is   garbage in my opinion is there anything outside 
of bitcoin that that interests you especially   when you see publicly traded companies or 
notable people in the space finding interest the   space is of course very interesting 
and i've done an exploration over there   uh both on my youtube channel so on there i've 
done some explorations of like for example stacks   uh stacks is is it has a really interesting 
interaction with bitcoin there's other ones   i'm going to explore as well which would be um 
sovereign so sov there's also um like for example   like lightning is technically defy i think people 
don't mentally bucket like lightning and smart   contracts on bitcoin as defy but the term of defy 
in terms of like defining it is is pretty fluid   there's some d5 projects that have a central 
control to it you know central central wallet   as we saw with that gigantic hack last week um 
you know so the term d5 is somewhat subjective   but i would say bitcoin has a lot of really cool 
things too like um distributed log contracts are   really cool on bitcoin so there's a lot of like 
bitcoin d5 stuff that i'm digging into um and   of course studying other d5 and other cryptos 
you know i've looked at those studied those   um the amm stuff is super interesting i still 
don't i feel like some of the amm stuff is a   little bit disingenuous though where like folks 
are like oh you can throw off this yield on your   on your coin i'm like yeah but if the market moves 
one direction for a long time you're going to have   a lot more of the other asset and less of the 
asset you originally posted in the liquidity pool   and they're like oh well you might make 
up for that with fees i'm like well maybe   but so i feel like some of 
the amm stuff is fascinating   but at the same time i think marketed 
marketed marketed in a way that isn't um   completely genuine where people are talking 
about these yields where it's like cool yeah   you're throwing you know you you have these 
things called like permanent loss you also have   it's a lot of incentivized yield or they're 
like cool we give you our governance token   as a way to bootstrap liquidity and incentivize 
yield but then it's just a game of choosing of   jumping between liquidity pool to liquidity pool 
trying to chase that incentive yield um and so i   don't know how long that game can last right the 
game only lasts as long as people buy the token   that will um you know the governance token you 
know to speculate on the governance token but   if that ends then there's not going to be the 
governance token incentive yield because people   won't want to own the governance token so you 
know and it's really interesting too because   those governance tokens are like kind of 
quasi-equity but then they're not equity   so yeah it you know i'm a bitcoiner but these 
are at least interesting things i'm digging   into i'm still only huddling bitcoin but for me 
it's at least fun to explore for sure for sure   um what are your thoughts on the current state 
could we still be in a super cycle and what   would that mean or do you think enough time has 
passed where maybe this cycle isn't a super cycle   great question i've had a lot of people ask me 
that i still think we have the potential for a   super cycle a lot of people got it's funny as soon 
as the market dips one direction people get really   bearish and they're like oh what an absurd idea 
called a super cycle i'm like well this looks like   2013 and that i would say you know it 2013 applied 
to now would be my definition of a super cycle   like a mega cycle um like a super cycle in terms 
of like either a longer bull run than we expected   or a much more intense bull run than we expected 
and you know if we go 10x from here we're looking   at you're looking at like 400 000 of bitcoin 
that's what happened in 2013 it went from 100   to 1200 you know even 12x so i would say 
that kind of puts us squarely in sort   of super cycle territory because at 400 000 
bitcoin i mean that's basically flipping gold   um i i still think there's a chance you know i was 
never like i never had the opinion that we were   for sure in a super cycle or that a super cycle is 
destined to be but that a super cycle could happen   i think i think it's still a small likelihood 
but i think it could happen you know we're on   the verge of mainstream adoption here where 
where people can buy crypto across and bitcoin   across almost any different platform paypal sofi 
cash app robinhood crack and coinbase um and the   narrative 2 is pretty strong where people are 
like oh yeah this is like a legit thing this is   mainstream what happens when all the institutions 
in the world start to buy bitcoin and i think you   know that still is a possibility again i'm not 
saying it's it's a it's a very likely event   but i think it's definitely possible and us 
rebounding off of the 30k low i think reflects   that we've still got a ways to go and that 
the possibility for a super cycle was still on   how do you think what kinds of things do you think 
we'll see as we get farther into the more mature   stages of this bitcoin bull run are we going to 
see more institutions buying in making news are   we going to see maybe another country you know 
uh getting into bitcoin are we going to see an   etf launched what do you think is going to happen 
this cycle i think etf is off the table i've from   what i've heard from folks across the board i just 
don't think there's it sounds like there's a lot   of resistance to an etf being approved in 2021 now 
the etf narrative will certainly propagate even if   it won't get approved people still talk about 
the etf coming and speculate that it might come   so i don't think the etf will occur i don't think 
like central banks buying bitcoin will be a thing   i think that those two are more for like the 
next cycle or maybe if this isn't if this is   an elongated bull run maybe late 2022 but i do 
see more and more institutions and corporations   buying bitcoin i think that those narratives will 
definitely be very very sticky um because these a   lot of people resonate with these different 
brands right if it's coca-cola apple google   like people trust these brands as much as 
they trust some governments or even more so   so as they buy that that continues to 
build this snowball effect of legitimacy   and so i yeah i think as the bull run continues 
then we're gonna see more and more um recognizable   names get into it which continues the this the 
process but i do think it's a little early for   central banks to be buying bitcoin i do think it's 
a little bit early for an etf i i hope it's i hope   i'm wrong but even though there's etfs in like 
canada already in other places yeah i'm talking   about the the us yeah i would think maybe because 
we're seeing it in canada and other places the   us would get to it but you're saying maybe not 
this year well it seems on the regulatory front   there seems to be the sec seems to want to kind of 
lean in across a lot of different things um we're   getting out of my scope of knowledge in terms 
of regulatory stuff but definitely seems like   the sec wants to become more involved across the 
different crypto assets and different crypto types   of investments like for example at yield um but 
yeah we'll just have to see what the sec thinks i just have yeah i just have one final question 
i know we're wrapping up the obligatory um love   to get your price prediction where you think 
bitcoin's going to go maybe by the end of this   year or maybe you want to do it at the end of 
the cycle in case the cycle goes into next year   however you think about it but in the context 
of this cycle this bull run how high do you see   bitcoin going well if we repeat 2013 we could see 
bitcoin hitting between three hundred thousand   four hundred thousand dollars bitcoin now history 
usually rhymes it doesn't repeat itself so it's   probably not going to be exactly that but if it 
did that would be my best price point so my my   price point i would say that i think it's gonna 
land between is probably between one and three   hundred thousand but if we match thirteen again 
it could be three hundred to four hundred thousand   damn dan appreciate you sharing your 
time coming on the link to dan's   youtube channel is down below in the video 
description final thoughts for our audience   well i've waited nine years to see this moment 
of bitcoin becoming mainstream this is probably   one of the most exciting moments for this space so 
definitely stick with it i think there's a lot of   uh there's going to be so many different news 
events that are negative just you know think   about why you entered this investment if you still 
want a whole huddle do that you know just make   sure you're not panic selling because you heard 
something negative i've been through a lot of fun   over nine years back since bitcoin is ten 
dollars bitcoin is an incredibly strong asset   it's in a great spot and i don't think the 
bull runs over yet so i'm gonna be huddling   i love it thanks so much dan 
thanks for having me guys cheers

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