Besser als der #DAX: “Die 90%-Strategie“

imagine two thirds of the year your money is safe on the bank and still get a higher return than the money is in the fire all year round and that is even if the risk is lower at all possible much stronger dax what can you actually say at the moment And it is really like that the dax is not only strong this year it currently has 12 percent already gained but it is even stronger than that We take the us markets essen p 500 in for most of the other indices around the world Usually performance is significantly worse, especially in the last decade and this year he turns the picture the right way around in the graphic here you can see one compare its p 500 in yellow with the dax in pink, both price indices so that so we are not comparing apples with pears here as you can see, the sp 500 has had a pretty good rank in the dax since 2008 expired and below the gray curve shows the outperformance of the dax compared to the s & p 500 in the last six months of the curve runs almost through the bank to below zero, so the dax is went worse up to the moment there he now has this line clearly breached upwards what follows such a situation so the dax is strong and b even stronger than other indices such as the s & p here 500 people that he advised that he now slowly shot his powder and you should get off slowly or is it rather a harbinger for really long lasting good times well how can you see that today I'll give you a very simple approach and it goes as follows: you just look at the last one every day ten trading days in the dax for the last two weeks and we count how often the dax has risen in these ten trading days can be anything fallen between 0 10 times in a row up to ten times what's the point of the whole thing, well, we'll see that in the next graphic I'll show now two graphs the first shows how often since 1990 the dax has risen 0 x or even ten times in the last ten trading days has increased as you can see the edge cases are really rare in 0.03 percent of cases, the dax managed it ten times in a row in value lose and only marginally more namely 0.2 percent of the cases it is increased ten days in a row that is typical that the dax take two steps forward and one step back or vice versa and these special cases because the dax is also really strong or right weak shows these are really very special cases and you can see that in the the second graphic shows you the return on investment in the next ten years trading weeks so 50 trading days after the dax five times or maybe seven times we have always climbed and the special thing is we look First of all, only the right area if the dax is nine or ten times last ten trading days has increased in value then the return expectations for the next ten weeks are particularly high in any case significantly higher than the average at less than two percent in each case lies and even if the dax is particularly bad, so even catastrophically bad then we have an above-average return expectation that is also the starting point for a very simple one strategy namely you just wait at the dax until it is either nine from has gained in value for ten days or has lost value nine out of ten days only then do you invest in the dax and never see them here the simplest case is simply for ten trading weeks then you go up again up and waiting for the next signal comes again in the meantime such a signal that it has fallen or risen 90 percent of the days then you start all over again and last ten more weeks what would such a strategy have produced since 1990? this shows the capital curve that you see here as a benchmark in yellow dax index and the pink that i called you 90 percent strategy that is only invested in the ten weeks after the dax was particularly strong or was weak as you can see the two curves come up in the end roughly the same result but there are considerable differences the strategy is only invested about 33 percent of the time so only achieves the entire dax return in a third of the time and at the same time, the strategies of the last 30 years has made the big ones bear markets keyword dotcom bubble keyword financial crisis keyword also to survive the 2020 crash more or less very well how can you now use that for an expanded strategy because you wants to get the best out of his money and with the dax strategy here you could say good if so these times in which i I am particularly well invested then maybe I could do that too Increase the risk a little and invest in the dax with lever two, for example and that is exactly what the next graphic shows.

She's investing in all this time which we described earlier with lever two results are very clear the result is a better one. the pink curve has a return expectation in the last 30 years you have over twelve percent compared to the dax just under seven and at the same time has significantly better keyword risk measures key figures the maximum drawdown below 50 percent for the dax over 70 so special strength in the dax seems to be a good thing and if you use it wisely, it has at least for the last 30 years Exorbitantly good results delivered means the whole thing that you are now on like that a signal would have to wait and then it is almost certain that the dax is in the next ten weeks no, of course, will not increase on the one hand it means that we have a hit rate but there is always also cases where the whole thing does not work well and secondly it is yes it is always possible that a strategy will no longer work so well in the future as in the past the whole thing has been pretty consistent worked out and over 30 years why should it be in the next year no longer work but of course the risk is always there nonetheless, this is a strategy which scores well at all levels it is rarely invested but when it has really good chance risk ratio she has a particularly good chance and At the same time, the risk is lower and it is also totally easy to see because now the current situation in the dax according to this indicator now he has a new, rare buy signal was delivered just now at the beginning of april means this indicator is at least correct well into the depths of may bullish for the dax whether the whole thing really works this time as well The strategy in detail works in what you should invest in, when you should the best goes out when the next signal maybe comes when we do all of that If you are interested, you can do so under the report below at 90% read through everything closer and when you will then download them They are also automatically added to a mailing list that tells you about the strategy keeps you up to date so when is a signal what you can do in the best way buy and when would you get off again Incidentally, this strategy grew on my crap and it is one of over 500 strategies that I run in my old multi-market letter if you if you are interested, just have a look at the alpha homepage multipoint de over well then let's hope that we like the dax does and will continue to do so for the next few months great upward movement continues all good continues [Music]

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