A BITCOIN BULLTRAP?! OR IS IT MORE WHALES GAMES?

how's it going everyone i'm coach k 
today we're going to give you the data   who was selling who was buying when were they 
buying when were they selling war is back it's   been seven days so we have data that is raw 
uncut and we found some really interesting   data points to show you what market exhaustion 
actually looks like based off of spending buying   and creating of wallets it's very interesting 
stuff that we're going to share with you today   don't go anywhere smash subscribe and 
like and i'll see you guys in a second all right welcome back everyone 
yes i think this is a bear trap bull trap not only do i but many others 
that know what they're talking about also do   what we saw yesterday was what we saw here we 
ran into this 200-day ema we talked about i said   it will not get through the first time it didn't 
get through the first time didn't get through the   second time now looks like it's more rejecting 
and after a day like yesterday and seeing we're   already almost nine hours in the day today yet we 
only have this much volume look how low the volume   is who's buying who's selling that's the questions 
that we're going to answer later in this video   so don't miss the part with war it's going to be 
a little later on what you're going to notice guys   is the volume from yesterday was mostly retail 
we know that you're gonna see that from the data   so retail started buying after the whales were 
pushing the price up usually what happens is   retail coming after the whales by the bottom 
because retail don't want to buy the bottom   they generally buy it as it goes up very common 
what i expect to see happen is us to come revisit   39 300 but more likely i think we're going to come 
to this level right here and we probably will wick   down to this level somewhere around this 10k level 
around 38 000 it looks like we a really good zone   to be buying into somewhere if we come back down 
to here in this level right in the between about   38 8 or so and about 37 6.

Somewhere in this 
zone if it comes in here you could ladder it in   or you know it's up to you how you would do it but 
this looks like the area that i would be looking   at this coming into to retest this this diagonal 
if we're going to stay bullish it would re-test   and then it would go higher if it does not re-test 
and it breaks back into the cloud we're likely to   see it drop lower now remember yesterday we talked 
about this really quickly how we have a flat kumo   top this is a very good thing we would like to 
see this break in and continue and break out   now remember i'm not bullish chill if we're at 
about 48 000 because of the cloud but i would   be neutrally bullish if we could break out and 
retest 45 000. 45 000 is a really key level for   me the key levels that you guys know about me is 
42 and 45 right now 42 if we can break above you   turn coach to neutral i'm not bullish or bearish 
i'm just looking for what's going up next once   we get above 45 i start turning neutral bullish 
when we get above 48 i would say okay now i'm   bullish bullish why because of the chart because 
until we're above this level right here in 48   technically we are not bullish right we're 
not bullish so because of that we have to   wait till we actually are bullish on the daily 
but we'll see that from the four hour first   so we broke out on the four hour and then we can 
start to see that the trend is becoming an actual   trend because we can go through and see that 
it has broken into the cloud on multiple time   frames right but look what it did here it rejected 
likely what we'll end up seeing like we usually do   is this will probably try to break in and come 
down it may go in here but it's possible that   we'll ride it all the way down to the bottom of 
the cloud so we have to be careful with bitcoin   here okay so when we're looking at the lower 
time frames it could fake us out because we see   that bullishness starting to come back but 
then i see it could be a fake out on the 12   hour in the daily and i have to be cautious of 
that because the market is nowhere near bullish   if we look at it on a technical level to most if 
not any trader right now we've had a nice little   impulse but that doesn't mean we're bullish and 
that's what you need to realize a lot of people   became hyper bullish yesterday hyper hyper bullish 
over one day of movement come on you guys should   know better than that we need to be above the 
cloud for us to be bullish that's the key piece   for me and i ain't gonna change my story until we 
are that's why you hear me see things like this is   a bull trap because it's set up so perfectly to 
be a bull trap a breakout a run into a 200 ema   and then one two taps and then today what happens 
when we open in four and a half hours maybe we   drop back down to this zone so we'd be looking 
to buy that zone and if we are gonna stay bullish   we'll stay there and i can go to my neutral 
bullish zone at 42.

But right now the only reason   i'm saying i'm bearish is because of technical 
analysis i'm never bearish on fundamentals on   crypto i never have been but i'm bearish on this 
and i'm also bearish on the data let's go actually   have a quick look at the data with war right 
now all right we're back with war he is back   from vacation and we're going to be looking at the 
data analysis now a lot of people have been doing   data analysis but they don't really know how to 
do data analysis but that's why i have my boy war   here to freaking tell you guys what has actually 
been going on here we're gonna actually show you   guys some cool stuff that we noticed um that show 
you a lot about who is buying when from the past   um for things that you guys can look for so let 
you jump right in where um let us know what's   been going on in the market i think so what we can 
see on the the spending behavior based on tenure   that yesterday we had a slight uptick in our new 
buyers which is a good sign so there's a little   bit of confidence coming back in from retail 
but ultimately we're still looking in this   consolidation period if you take out this outlying 
day we're here where we had a large shift of um   purchase from midterm strong hands we're still 
largely in a consolidation period that really   mimics the price action i think like when i when 
i look at this consolidation pattern there's some   key features we can pull out of here we can see 
a lot of like whale games as we like to call them   where we're seeing price action if we look at this 
panic move down where we're seeing a lot of um   selling from new hands they're selling at a loss 
we can see the accumulation from these guys and   this is just typical of these movements up as 
well right so you can see that happens here   as well this transition as retail paddy 
can sell it or loss which which you can   uh we can get confluence from our profits or panic 
chart and we can see that align uh pretty easily   so they're really just bouncing back and forth and 
i want to give you guys a quick snapshot back in   time so this is the run up to the the break of the 
all-time high guys and we can see on this rally   all the way up we did have a lot of retail buying 
as we pushed all the way up and then we hit a fair   bit of resistance here where we had the midterms 
holders still selling into this rally a little   bit of accumulation there from the wales but as 
we reach this resistance look it broke through   look who who absorbed this the 
selling from this period the whales   yeah new investors say it's reached an all-time 
high it's all over the news bitcoins reach an   all-time high i don't want to miss out this 
time or more better know that follow-up time it's actually broken all the time it means 
it's not going back down means bitcoin wasn't   a bubble wasn't a scam holy [ __ ] and that's 
what happens and that's where you see the retail   just piling money into the 
mark into the market there   yep and if you can see this the uh we're talking 
a lot at the moment about market exhaustion   and how much new money there is to continue to 
push the price higher because ultimately that's   what we need we need new money in the market and 
at scale but if you put a trend line on this break   once we broke through here we built up there's a 
pretty clear trend of the decreasing volume coming   from retail we showed you guys this before when we 
reached the 64k we could pretty easily chart this   exhaustion yeah so you can see that it's exhausted 
and the whales know that they know it's it's about   and all it takes is a little bit of a sell-off to 
start capitulating down so hopefully that gives   you guys some insight as to what actually goes 
on behind the price action and the people that   have been in the market for the longest they 
know what they're doing they're positioning   price and printing patterns to to really to suit 
their agenda in the market that's that's that's   ultimately how this game's played if we look at 
the 10-year trends of how this has been trending   the last couple of weeks in um in from end of may 
to june we can see uh uptick in our strong hands   and our new holders are also starting to plateau 
and a little bit of an uptick as of yesterday   where the mid-term holders are 
tending to stay out of the market   so there is a little bit of a hope behind that 
coach because there are two pretty positive   indicators however like we always say we need the 
volume that's that's the only way to push higher   is from new money coming in what's happening is 
retail is exhausted i was physically exhausted i   didn't even see this data and i knew that we were 
coming to that end of the cycle because i felt   tired all the time and so did everyone else and so 
when you feel tired and you're working directly in   the industry that might be exhausted if you're 
exhausted it's very likely that if other people   are exhausted so is the market and data shows us 
that and that's why i'm not bullish yet because   people are still complaining how tired they 
are still welcoming a bear market and until   the service providers in our industry are like 
i want to work again i want to make money again   i don't want to tell projects no and i 
don't want to sign their staffs and stuff   until that point uh you know we're going to have 
tier ones that are going to do okay through a bear   market and if it's short term it's great but right 
now i'm not convinced and i know you aren't either   no definitely not this the decline in the wall 
account is still something we need to see reversed   to really give us some up some uptick this 
is positive like i mentioned before this is   a nice um some nice growth from the new wallet 
either there may not be new wallets or they've   been holding for less than a year which gives us 
indication that people new to the market do have   there is some interest still there but it's just 
not the level that we need to push us to a next   level if one positive a very large positive is 
that was the most retail buying since like what   the start of june that's that's positive 
right like yes you can see there on the new   bullet while it buying and selling that those new 
wallets haven't bought that much in a single day   since pretty much probably the end of may so 
that's that's a promising thing yeah absolutely   and i think this is this is a healthy looking 
this break above these these are previous lows   with this is healthy if we saw this break up 
and this wasn't there i'd be very concerned   we need to close that 42 if we get above 42 and 
we're clearly above 42 i think then we're gonna be   closer to feeling neutral bullish right now i'm 
more on the neutral side i'm still bearish but   i'm bearish neutral bearish i'm not like super 
bearish you know what i mean because i do see   some promising things in the charts but we're not 
there yet and like to be a moon boy and get all   about it like that it's just not what we do man 
you and i are very unemotional and just look at   the data and look at the chart and it's telling us 
right now that we're still not really bullish so   so i would encourage all the people watching or 
and i both will encourage you not to get caught   up in that right don't get in an emotional don't 
let people be like yeah we're going to 50k it's   all good everything's gonna go back to the moon 
try to keep your emotion in check and be like you   know what yeah we can still trade if it goes up 
great let's make some money if it goes down let's   make some money but let's not be like too high or 
too low about it either you know i think there's a   if there's one takeaway to remember 
from i guess the narrative behind the   manipulation of the market is that retail 
don't buy the debt that's not what they   do that's not the psychology of retail no 
that's not that's not how new investors work   it doesn't work like that it's fearful that's 
i told you so i'm not gonna buy you know like   their mate tells them to get in and then it they 
tell them to get in at twenty thousand goes up   to sixty thousand they don't buy and then it dips 
as i told you so i told you it's gonna come down   like that and then they end up mowing when 
price breaks above 60k again that's that's   how that momentum starts and that's how you'll see 
price action print the way that it's to tell about   narrative to get them back involved as well um 
and that's what that wallet 0.89 that's telling   you that 89 of the wallets are new year one year 
or less bullets holders when that changes to 95   that's a good thing that means price is going 
to be an all-time high that's where it will be   so that's why we're looking at this metric just 
to give people another reiteration of why you   should be how you guys can use this data when 
we present it to you if you look at the token   holders and supply distribution as like a as a way 
to measure risk you tell me what you would prefer   a million tokens held by 100 people or a million 
tokens held by 10 000 people exactly great way to   put it actually it's a great analogy all right 
guys don't forget to follow war on twitter   right make sure you do it he has a lot of these 
that are probably post them before we do the show   so you can get that data you ask me all the time 
if you're in the club coach k club this stuff will   be a part of it but it's not ready yet but soon i 
will let you guys know about that when it's ready   so thanks again for coming man uh and we'll 
see you later this week looking over at bitcoin   dominance bitcoin dominance is showing us that 
bitcoin has obviously moved a little bit alts   haven't moved as much now what i'm expecting to 
see is this kind of push up a little higher reject   come back down so bitcoin will push higher and 
then alts will have their turn and then they'll   come back down and then we'll be at the end of the 
cycle very likely in you know maybe six months we   might have actually with this huge dump gotten 
back to like the original schedule i thought   around december where we'd be ending the cycle and 
this dump actually because of how violent it was   it may actually have extended it back to being 
the normal link that it would have been so i   may have been right regardless let's have a 
quick look over at ethereum ethereum is running   into the 21ema there's really low volume 
it's at risk of definitely breaking down   um and we're looking at that zone that we talked 
about yesterday so we're gonna be patient we're   gonna wait for it to come there uh on the four 
hour we do see that we had a kumo breakout retest   so this could be an awesome term an awesome 
opportunity to buy ethereum if it indeed did   but what we see we're bearish still like we're 
in the candles right here the price actions in   the candles that's not good and we also don't have 
a bullish tk cross so we still have a bearish two   kumo twist so this is still technically bearish 
even on the four hour looking at heath vs bitcoin   it's still quite bearish against btc still and i 
think that might continue until we see impulses   come back to eth because it hasn't really had 
a lot a lot a lot of volume in the last week   and you can see how much it dropped off um from 
where we were over here right until now it's just   been slowly dropping and it doesn't seem to be 
rising so that's something also to take note of   dot dot got listed on coinbase so what happened 
remember i told you these things it doesn't need   a catalyst it just does it it pulls it towards 
that level so it's going to continue very likely   to pull towards it came and retested the 200 
ema which is also kind of in what people would   have called a death cross which is now into a 
golden cross because it crossed back over again   um so we don't have super bearishness but 
that could have just been that listing and   then you know we'll come back down anyway so 
we have to keep our eyes on the prize as always   and let's see how we do but that was a really 
nice breakout of the level and uh let's see   if this retest will send it all the way to this 
level at 28 and we would love to see it back at 32   and 32 is kind of that level where we would start 
popping back bullish so this would be nice to see   something along the lines of this to continue 
holding and us to kind of ride up this right so   if it comes back down and it comes back down and 
it comes back down you know something like that   would be ideal uh idealism doesn't always work 
though just keep in mind and also we have pair   of chains and auctions so things like you know ksm 
looking quite good remember be patient we do have   some positive things happening on the chart we do 
have a bullish chemo twist we do have a 12 hour   that is also still technically bullish we do have 
an eight hour that is technically bullish we have   four hour that is technically still um well 
not super bullish but it's not bearish either   but we're keeping our eyes on this potential head 
and shoulders one two three if it does break down   it will break down the other side into that 340 
dollar range and if you are looking to pick up   ksm for some reason if it does drop we would 
be looking somewhere in this range right here   between 355 to 340 dollars be right around 
you want if you want to be a little bit more   uh you know someone who just in case it gets there 
and you don't want to miss you can always go all   the way up to 365 okay so those are the zones that 
you'd be looking at for us to come back in and   continue going higher potentially and that is what 
you should be looking for so audios not really   interesting for most people but what are coming 
out we have to keep our eyes on if they're doing   uh better based off the market looking a little 
bit better so we're gonna see a couple that are   coming out today and tomorrow uh credmark trace 
network meme.com invest desk uh and liquidify   and especially covalent this one was has had a lot 
of hype for a long period of time so we're gonna   watch for those uh and see if they can actually 
perform because right now that's what we need to   see what is going to perform in this market and uh 
you know can't we make money with ideos because if   we can't let's focus only on trading because that 
can make us money all the time bull or bear market   okay so let's look at sharing we talked about this 
earlier in the week how i said it looked like it   would probably range and then break out it did it 
faster than i expected uh even though this on the   daily chart so that was over a week it uh had 
its app or launch today and it broke out of two   key levels without resist without retesting and 
now what i think we're likely to see is that this   level if it closes up here you know which is quite 
high for one day i mean it really mooned in the   last two days about 50 60 percent but it's likely 
that we end up seeing one of these so this is also   something to keep in mind and look for because i 
think sharing could have a really good opportunity   for a trade up into that zone again and if 
we get this opportunity guys this is what we   would be looking for as the trade setup we would 
do it a little bit below this level down here   a little bit below that 200 ema and we're gonna 
aim towards our zone so right around the bottom of   the zone at 3.25 r nice trade setup there gives 
us a nice amount of room if it drops back down   and we can actually even pull this up if 
you wanted it not to be on the 21 email   you could use a little bit below the 10k is 
another opportunity but i would like personally   to leave that range open because it's still a 
3.39 r trade and i can always move my stop up   so that's my trade for the day right now there's 
not much to look at and sharing could definitely   also still come down to this level again so we 
have to be patient and watch and wait for closes   on the daily and see how it reacts tomorrow so 
coming back to bitcoin just to wrap it all up   we are rejecting the 200 dma just as i suspected 
will we reject and break below 39 350 or so if we   do break below and close below it's very likely 
we go into our buy zone between the 21 ema   and the re-test of the diagonal so we're gonna 
look for that zone right here to see if we get   into it and if we don't get into it and we bounce 
off there it's likely going to try and attempt to   break through the 200ma and go towards 42k so what 
should the play be on this one just really quick   we would want to keep our stop loss below our zone 
and we would want to get up to this 45 000 level   and if we were being a little bit more cognizant 
a little bit safer we're gonna do it like this but   this is not a good trade so we would actually have 
to go all right hopefully it will not lose this   level right here the low of the last candle before 
it so we'll keep it down here but these risks   are that you will stop out so that's the risk to 
reward that you would have and so that's what you   need to understand the question that i asked you 
is this a [ __ ] i think it could be and because   i think it could be i've given you my reasoning 
why you decide for yourself if we're bullish or   bearish but keep in mind the key levels that 
i keep talking about on every single video   knowing what to look for before it happens 
means that you are planning for success so   make sure that you are the most successful 
you can be and i'll see you guys tomorrow

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