Hello, and on the new channel I have released a video on how you can easily measure the level of intelligence, and how to objectively compare your intelligence level with the intelligence level of some blogger, but here at least with mine. I will provide you with all the necessary tools for this. The link to the video will be in description. Well, here and today I want to speculate on what is the essence of the stock market and the cryptocurrency market, from the point of view of a simple investor. Because if any company issues shares, and collects money for its development, then everything is less clear and understandable … ..if Elon Musk buys bitcoins, and then talks about it on Twitter, then there is also nothing complicated. But why do ordinary people invest in stocks and bitcoins? This issue is worth discussing in more detail. Where do we usually spend our money. Usually we spend it on housing, on food, on a car, on education, on health care and on entertainment …
And if you can somehow save money on entertainment, then there is a limit on everything else, below which saving will not work in any way. Agree, no one will go to play on the stock exchange if you have no money for an apartment, no one will buy bitcoin for the future if your child has nothing to eat here and now, no one will buy Tesla shares if there is no money to treat a sick tooth. From this simple thought, we conclude that the money that goes to the exchange and the market cryptocurrencies are extra money that their owner does not really need at the moment.
Where does this extra money come from? It's simple, our states print them. Virtually or physically, never mind. One way or another, all states are constantly issuing a lot more money, than the real economy needs. In an ideal theoretical economy, extra money exists should not, as much as we have earned them, should spend so much on immediate pressing needs, to the last penny. But in real life, money is not distributed smoothly and evenly. And if the state will release them in a strictly limited number, theoretically necessary for the functioning of the real economy, then many people simply will not get money, and they will starve to death. And if people die of hunger, then, accordingly, the real economy will suffer too. Therefore, money in the modern world is printed with a large margin, so that in moments of crises and perturbations people suffered as little as possible.
But if we issue extra money, which are not provided with an appropriate amount of goods and services, then this leads to what? That's right – this leads to inflation and higher prices. Little inflation is good. She even necessary. Small inflation tells people not to keep their money in a stocking or in the basement, because money is constantly getting cheaper, and you'd better buy something with it. Then there is a small inflation stimulates a constant return of money to the economy. But if inflation spins up to large values, then this is already beginning to have a bad effect on the economy … because it is difficult for businesses to accurately predict the future, they begin to build the expected growth into prices, and try to do it with a margin. This provokes an even greater unjustified rise in prices for goods and services, the purchasing power of citizens is sharply reduced.
To avoid riots, the government releases more money. And a universal mess begins, which usually ends revolutions, default, change of government, change of currency, and even the collapse of the state. Naturally, it is better not to bring it to this. Therefore, so that extra money does not negatively affect for real sectors of the economy – virtual sectors are invented. There prices can rise infinitely. There, nothing is attached to anything. Stock market inflation scares no one on the contrary, all the media are happy to report the rise in prices on the stock exchange, and the peoples are confidently looking into the future. How the standard inflation index is compiled. The average consumption of citizens is taken for food, transport, education, housing, and so on. A certain list of goods and services is selected. AND the average increase in prices for these goods and services is monitored. At the same time, the increase in value for real bought a Tesla car – may well affect the inflation index.
But the rise in the value of shares Tesla company – it is not taken into account in any way. Because the Tesla car rolled off the assembly line is real, and the shares are virtual. The rise in stock prices is not included in the inflation index. And one this fact suggests that our economic activity is completely officially divided on real and virtual by economists themselves. Economists, tracking milk and egg prices, scrupulously enter into their plates every extra penny of price increases for these products. But at the same time their does not care at all about bitcoin, which suddenly, for no reason at all, has grown 5 times.
Because milk and eggs are real, and bitcoin is virtual. And the less the virtual market is associated with the real economy, the less any cataclysms occurring on it, affect our daily life. I want to draw your attention, I am not claiming that someone specially invented the stock market or the market cryptocurrencies, in order to withdraw excess money from the economy. No, it's just when there are superfluous ones somewhere money, then mechanisms for their suction from the population arise in a perfect natural way. BUT bureaucrats and economists decide along the way how these mechanisms affect the real sector, and how they need to be regulated. How does a stock market crash usually happen … no … I I picked the wrong word, in fact, there have been no crashes on the stock exchange for a long time. But sharp declines prices occur there fairly regularly. So, how is a sharp decline in prices in the stock market. Well this apparently happens when stock prices are too far from the real economic indicators. And when some internet company that sells plane tickets starts cost more than all airlines in the world combined.
This is what happened on the eve of the crisis 1998 year. Then the people too optimistically believed in new technologies, and rushed to buy everything in a row, not really reading the financial statements. Then the same people began to scratch turnips and think about whether it's time to reel in the fishing rods, because the prices for many companies are unjustified are high, but they do not bring any superprofits.
And as soon as a significant part of the depositors starts think the same way and decide to sell the stock. This is where a sharp drop in prices occurs. Because when people think the same way and all together raise the stock price, they do it with the help of real existing extra money. And when they start to think the same and all together want to sell them, then there is no extra money at this moment in the economy, there are no buyers, prices fall, the market is zeroed out, extra money is burned … Only those who used to earn went in and left on time. Moreover, the absolute minority of the participants in the process always earns. You you understand that it cannot be so that all contributors earn without putting in any effort.
So can not be. For someone to make money on anything, someone else must inevitably lose it. It's the same as in a casino. Most lose some single participants win. There is such a frequently used phrase that The casino cannot be won. But this is complete nonsense – often sounding phrases, they are usually stupid, are pronounced automatically, without the use of brain activity. Win at the casino naturally you can, and I did it once personally. 20 years ago in a Moscow casino, which then stood at every corner, turned the handle at the machine, and I was piled up in chips for $ 20.
I went to cashier. I took my money and never returned there. I personally beat the casino. therefore the phrase that you cannot win at the casino, I refuted by my own example. Yes, it was naturally an accident, and naturally only a few win and millions lose. But all games are arranged … playing in a casino, playing sports lotto, playing on the stock exchange – it's not for nothing that all this is called a word "a game". Because playing is not work. Money is earned at work, and it is spent at play. The owner of the casino himself – he does not play in the casino, he works there, he provides you with a platform for games and entertainment, and has its own stable, honestly earned percentage. And you play in the casino, you don't work there. It's the same with stock brokers.
They work on the stock exchange, they provide you with certain services, and they receive a percentage of your transactions. But at the same time stock brokers work, and you play. Grandma at the sports lotto kiosk is working, and you are at this kiosk playing. Whether you win or lose, Grandma doesn't give a damn. She's her salary for sure will receive. I do not understand the cryptocurrency market, but I am sure that there, too, someone takes some interest on transactions, and this is their main interest. In addition, when you turn the handle of the machine, you are not playing for money with the owner of the casino, you are playing with other guests of the casino.
You do not play sports lotto with the state that organizes this sports lotto. You play with others citizens of your country. You agree that we will all chip in 20 shekels, and let one person will receive a million. The state says – well, okay, if you really want to play this stupid game with such low chances, and there is nowhere else to spend extra money, why not, let me organize everything for you, take my 50%, take another 30% tax from the winner, and everyone will be happy. One person will win a lot, a million others will lose a little bit. And to further understand the process of the game, we need to remember that we do not play sports lotto.
with the state, we do not play in a casino with its owner, we do not play on the stock exchange with brokers, we do not play MMM with Mavrodi. We play exclusively with each other and against each other friend. And if we want and dream to get rich on such a game, then we can only get rich at the expense of other people as stupid as ourselves. And since stupid people always think and act more or less in the same way, then they inevitably lose in the absolute majority.
There are especially talented people in each separate area, and these people are masters. his business … for example, the locksmith Vasya has golden hands, he makes good money with their help, and in he is the best professional in his specialty, he has a lot of clients and a lot of work .. But when locksmith Vasya brings money to the exchange, then there he ceases to be the best specialist, they have their own masters of their craft – such as, for example, Yuri Milner, Mikhail Fridman, Alisher Usmanov. Mikhail Fridman, he understands that he will never be able to turn the nuts better than a locksmith Vasya, and he is not trying to do it. But the locksmith Vasya for some reason hopes to fuck Mikhail Fridman on its territory. Naturally – no one but himself, he will not be able to fuck there. because that if in sports lotto the win is absolutely random, then the more difficult the game, the less chances remain for ordinary people to win it.
And the game on the stock exchange is quite difficult. And so the frequent advice for such investors from the people, it is to buy some of the most conservative reliable shares. And leave them for 10-20 years without unnecessary body movements. With this strategy, you won't lose much, anyway. It should be noted that with such a strategy, you will surely lose in real terms anyway, but it will be less of a loss than if you were constantly buying and selling, or if your money will stupidly lie in the bank for these 20 years. Well, where is it better to invest money – I reasoned for quite some time, and now we are talking exclusively about stocks and cryptocurrencies. Both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market are remarkably well-suited for burning off people's surplus money.
How does incineration take place and why I use this term. Well, for example, you bought bitcoin for 10 thousand, and sold for 3 thousand. So at the time of the sale, you burned 7 thousand shekels. And if you invested extra money in bitcoin, for which there was no place in the real economy, it means that you did not need this money, and it means that their existence is not justified by anything. And when you sell bitcoin at a loss – you formalize this fact. Why am I sure that you will sell bitcoin at a loss, or maybe you bought at 10 and sold at 50? I answer. Impossible everyone to win the lottery, someone must definitely lose. Therefore, they will buy at 10 and sell 50 units each, most will do exactly the opposite.
And there will inevitably be more losers than winners. This is elementary math from the first grade. Well, you don't think that Elon Musk invested money in a crypt to make money on Mikhail Fridman. No, he is going to make money on you, he wants to take your extra money from you and launch it to Mars. And how the cryptocurrency market is fundamentally different from the stock market.
In general, today, from the point of view of the state and from the point of view of depositors, it is no different. Modern the stock market is very conditionally tied to the real economy, and there have long been more psychologists thrive than economists. It is important for the state that with the help of cryptocurrencies it is not alternative money was created, the emission of which the state does not control. Printing money is one of the tools of public administration, it has always been so, and to give this instrument will not be in the wrong hands.
But if citizens using cryptocurrencies want to voluntarily burn their excess finances, then such things the state only welcomes and encourages in every possible way. After all, extra money in the economy – they are. Everyone knows this. It is necessary to burn them one way or another periodically. When the extra money burns out in the overheated housing market this inevitably leads to cataclysms. When the extra money burns up in bankrupt banks crowds of indignant people gather when excess money burns up on the stock exchange – this too little pleasant, pension funds and other serious organizations suffer. But when money burns up in cryptocurrencies, no one really cares about that. Cryptocurrencies have no master cryptocurrencies do not have a state, there is nowhere to protest, there is no one to complain, there is no one to overthrow. So, from the point of view of any state, cryptocurrencies are an ideal furnace for ridding citizens of excess money supply. When people my age talk about cryptocurrencies, then the great schemer of all Russia, blessed memory Sergey Panteleevich Mavrodi.
Sergei Mavrodi, creating his MMM, had to put at the head of the company your own name. And there were such offices, which in those days tried to fuck depositors, there was a huge quantity . Haper Invest, Chara, Vlastina, Tibet … the Russian house of Selenga, and a lot less famous and less fortunate. They were stamped then, just as cryptocurrencies are stamped today. Sergey Mavrodi's company turned out to be the loudest and most successful of them. Just like Bitcoin today is the leader among cryptocurrencies.
By the way, Mavrodi was a mathematician, and in today's times would probably muddy some kind of cryptocurrency. Because this is more comfortable. Well, judge for yourself, who is the builder of the pyramid? – he is a thief, a scoundrel, a criminal, fraudster. And articles for him in the criminal code are found quickly and efficiently. Almost all the organizers of the above pyramids ended badly in one way or another.
They were caught by the police they were sent to prison, and someone died right there under unexplained circumstances. Organizers no one will ever catch cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency organizers – they are respected entrepreneurs, they are IT people, they are bright minds. They don't deceive anyone, they promise nothing, you decide everything yourself. When to buy, when to sell, when to enter, when to exit .. And if something goes wrong so, and sooner or later it will inevitably go wrong – there will be no one to complain. And shout "who stole our money ”, there will also be nowhere. Often people still resent who stole our deposits in the USSR … the answer is simple, no one stole them, it was virtual money, unsecured goods, and lying dead weight on savings books.
There on these passbooks they burned down. Likewise, no one stole the MMM money. Mavrodi collected cash, paid for advertising companies where he promised increased interest, and paid this interest to those investors, that came out of the pyramid. When money began to go out more than it came in, which is inevitable should have happened someday, he simply closed the offices and stopped issuing them. Clear, that there were some mountains of cash left in the branches, which naturally in the end someone took it away, perhaps even by trucks. But these were scanty turnarounds anyway daily remedies. And everything else simply burned out in the firebox of the pyramid, because in fact in fact – this money has never been – these are just numbers on the screen that do not mean anything, because all depositors will never be able to sell their papers at a time.
Win units – the majority loses. Your last video on this topic, I did it literally a week before the then fall of bitcoin, but it was an accident. I knew, that Bitcoin will inevitably fall, but did not know when. And now I know that it will fall, and I don't know either when. I just hope that this will not happen before I release this next video. And you don't need to write to me.
Oh, you fool – you do not understand anything. But I bought a crypt and it is growing. The answer is, until you sell your crypto, you cannot be happy about its growth. Joy should occur only at the time of sale. No sale – no profit. And an ordinary human greed prevents most people from taking profits in time, therefore, they will inevitably have to suffer losses..